Plays of the Day
8 of 9 this week. That's the Play of the Day pool, and it came with a 60% ROI.
One miss in nine is a strong week by any measure. The posted plays below show where that miss landed and what it cost.
The posted plays
The San Diego Padres team total over 2.5 is the one that didn't come home. Called at -120, the Padres scored 2. That's the week's only miss in the posted-play list.
Everything else landed. Jesús Luzardo's over 3.5 strikeouts at +101 came in at 6.0. Hagen Smith's over 1.5 strikeouts at -184 finished at 4.0. On the under side, Blake Snell's under 6.5 strikeouts at +105 settled at 5.0, and Logan Henderson's under 6.5 strikeouts at -166 came in at 4.0.
Team totals did the rest of the work. The Philadelphia Phillies over 2.5 at -118 hit with 3 runs. The Atlanta Braves over 3.5 at -104 hit with 6 runs on 1 October, then the Braves over 2.5 at -154 hit again with 3 runs on 4 October. The Chicago White Sox over 2.5 at -140 hit with 3 runs.
The posted-play record for the week stands at 8 of 9. Split by type, props went 4 of 4 and team totals went 4 of 5. Split by lean, overs went 6 of 7 and unders went 2 of 2.
The ranked tiers
Across the board's ranked tiers: top 3 ranked matchups hit 33 of 73. Top 5 ranked hit 128 of 337. Top 10 ranked hit 233 of 613. The full board hit 823 of 2,588.
That's 448 graded rows feeding into those tiers across the week.
The stat boards
Hits led the individual boards at 52% on the full board across 270 graded lines. H+R+RBI followed at 46% across 268. Total bases sat at 45% across 267.
DFS points landed at 35% across 270. Runs came in at 31% across 270, and walks at 29% across 270. RBI sat lower at 23% across 270.
The tougher calls stayed tough. Stolen bases hit 5% across 270 and home runs hit 11% across 270 — both low-frequency events by nature, and the board treated them that way.
Pitcher DFS points graded 30% on the full board across 30 lines, with the top 3 ranked matchups on that board hitting 43%.
Every posted play this week
8 of 9 landed — 4 of 5 on team totals, 4 of 4 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 | Jesús Luzardo | over 3.5 strikeouts | +101 | 6 | Hit |
| 09-29 | Philadelphia Phillies | team total over 2.5 | -118 | 3 | Hit |
| 10-01 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 3.5 | -104 | 6 | Hit |
| 10-03 | Chicago White Sox | team total over 2.5 | -140 | 3 | Hit |
| 10-03 | Hagen Smith | over 1.5 strikeouts | -184 | 4 | Hit |
| 10-03 | San Diego Padres | team total over 2.5 | -120 | 2 | Miss |
| 10-04 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 2.5 | -154 | 3 | Hit |
| 10-04 | Blake Snell | under 6.5 strikeouts | +105 | 5 | Hit |
| 10-04 | Logan Henderson | under 6.5 strikeouts | -166 | 4 | Hit |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.