The Week in Numbers
MatchWiz graded 525 rows across MLB this week, running October 5 through October 11.
The headline number isn't pretty. The Play of the Day pool hit 2 of 5, for an ROI of -26%. That's the single call grading pool, the one the site stakes its name on each day, and it came in cold.
The Posted Plays
The posted plays — every call the site surfaced, not just the Play of the Day — finished 2-for-5 too, with 2 hits from 4 prop plays and 0-for-1 on team totals.
The miss that stings most is Walker Buehler on October 7: called over 2.5 strikeouts at -150... wait, at -140, heavily favored. He finished with zero strikeouts. A -140 number implying a near lock went to nothing.
Two strikeout-over calls did land. Nick Martinez went over 2.5 strikeouts at -150 and posted 3.0. Robert Gasser, priced at +102, also cleared 2.5 with 3.0 strikeouts.
Hagen Smith missed the other way on October 8: called over 1.5 strikeouts at -174, he finished with zero.
The week closed with the Los Angeles Dodgers' team total called over 2.5 at -145 on October 11. They scored 1. Every posted play this week leaned over — 2 hit, 0 leaned under at all — and the unders simply weren't on the board.
Ranked Boards
The top 3 ranked matchups went 44 of 86. The top 5 went 171 of 376. The top 10 went 267 of 661. The full board finished 628 of 1898.
No tier separated itself this week — the hit counts scale roughly with the size of the pool, which isn't the story a strong week usually tells.
Stat-by-Stat Boards
Across the individual stat boards, each built on 198 graded lines (193 for total bases), Hits led at 56%. Total bases and H+R+RBI both sat at 47%. DFS points came in at 37%, walks at 32%, runs at 30%.
RBI graded at 25%. The power numbers lagged hardest: home runs at 7% and stolen bases at 8%, the two toughest outcomes to call on any given night and it showed.
Every posted play this week
2 of 5 landed — 0 of 1 on team totals, 2 of 4 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 | Nick Martinez | over 2.5 strikeouts | -150 | 3 | Hit |
| 10-07 | Robert Gasser | over 2.5 strikeouts | +102 | 3 | Hit |
| 10-07 | Walker Buehler | over 2.5 strikeouts | -140 | 0 | Miss |
| 10-08 | Hagen Smith | over 1.5 strikeouts | -174 | 0 | Miss |
| 10-11 | Los Angeles Dodgers | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 1 | Miss |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.