Monza vs Parma
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Monza1
Parma1Full timeEnnio TardiniBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Sunday, September 6, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 1–1
Proj1.2–1.3
ParmaHOME33%1.2proj+200fair+170mkt-3.7%Draw29%—proj+243fair+220mkt-2.1%
MonzaAWAY✗37%1.3proj+167fair+214mktModel lean+5.6%O2.5 47% · mkt 40% ✓BTTS 53% · mkt 49% ✓
Paramount+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
Serie A tablePlayer props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Dany Mota1+ Goals24%27%+290✗ 0Gianluca Caprari1+ Goals24%––DNPMateo Pellegrino1+ Goals23%––DNP
Keita Baldé1+ Goals22%––DNPAlessandro Bianco1+ Goals13%––DNPShots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Dany Mota1+ Shots95%92%-1100✓ 3Keita Baldé1+ Shots90%––DNPMateo Pellegrino1+ Shots88%––DNP
Gianluca Caprari1+ Shots86%––DNPDany Mota2+ Shots79%70%-230✓ 3Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Dany Mota1+ Shots on Target60%58%-140✓ 1Keita Baldé1+ Shots on Target54%––DNPGianluca Caprari1+ Shots on Target49%––DNPMateo Pellegrino1+ Shots on Target49%––DNP
Samuele Birindelli1+ Shots on Target36%30%+230✗ 0Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Georgios KyriakopoulosO0.518%––DNPDany MotaO0.513%22%+360✗ 0Gianluca CaprariO0.511%––DNPKeita BaldéO0.510%––DNPKevin ZeroliO0.59%––DNP
Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Dany Mota34%––✗ 0Gianluca Caprari32%––DNPKeita Baldé30%––DNPMateo Pellegrino30%––DNP
Alessandro Bianco20%––DNPOur number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 2 meetingsLevel at 0 apiece2 draws2–2 on goals