Serie A Match Board
Every match priced by our goals-based goal model — our line (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. A gold Model lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most — and this league is priced off actual goals, not xG, so trust it even less until it grades out; we're tracking every match publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
Season · all graded matches
ML5-3+0.1u
Over 2.56-2+1.8u
BTTS7-1+4.7u
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 7 of 8 matches.
Monday, August 24
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 4–0
Proj1.5–1.0
ROMAAS RomaHOME46%1.5proj+116fair-122mkt-8.6%DRWDraw29%—proj+245fair+288mkt+3.2%
FIOFiorentinaAWAY25%1.0proj+304fair+426mktModel lean+5.7%O2.5 44% · mkt 48%BTTS 50% · mkt 49%
Paramount+
Friday, August 28
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
2:45 PM ET
Proj1.9–0.8
MILAC MilanHOME63%1.9proj-173fair-226mkt-6.0%DRWDraw23%—proj+327fair+411mkt+3.8%
VENVeneziaAWAY13%0.8proj+652fair+787mkt+2.0%O2.5 50% · mkt 51%BTTS 46%
Paramount+
Saturday, August 29
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
12:30 PM ET
Proj1.2–1.2
FIOFiorentinaHOME36%1.2proj+178fair-134mkt-21.3%DRWDraw30%—proj+231fair+316mktModel lean+6.2%
FROFrosinoneAWAY34%1.2proj+196fair+432mktModel lean+15.0%O2.5 43% · mkt 51%BTTS 50%
Paramount+
12:30 PM ET
Proj1.4–1.4
MONMonzaHOME36%1.4proj+179fair+247mktModel lean+7.0%DRWDraw28%—proj+263fair+239mkt-1.9%
UDIUdineseAWAY37%1.4proj+173fair+140mkt-5.1%O2.5 54% · mkt 42%BTTS 58%
Paramount+
12:30 PM ET
Proj1.5–1.1
SASSassuoloHOME45%1.5proj+120fair+136mkt+3.2%DRWDraw28%—proj+258fair+247mkt-0.9%
TORTorinoAWAY27%1.1proj+277fair+247mkt-2.3%O2.5 49% · mkt 47%BTTS 54%
Paramount+
2:45 PM ET
Proj1.4–0.7
JUVJuventusHOME51%1.4proj-104fair-370mkt-27.8%DRWDraw30%—proj+230fair+588mktModel lean+15.7%
PARParmaAWAY19%0.7proj+432fair+1314mktModel lean+11.7%O2.5 35% · mkt 57%BTTS 40%
Paramount+
Sunday, August 30
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
12:30 PM ET
Proj1.2–0.9
NAPNapoliHOME42%1.2proj+138fair+158mkt+3.3%DRWDraw32%—proj+210fair+235mkt+2.4%
COMOComoAWAY26%0.9proj+288fair+219mkt-5.6%O2.5 35% · mkt 41%BTTS 42%
Paramount+
2:45 PM ET
Proj1.1–1.6
CAGCagliariHOME26%1.1proj+292fair—mkt—DRWDraw28%—proj+262fair—mkt—
INTInternazionaleAWAY47%1.6proj+114fair—mkt—O2.5 50%BTTS 54%
Paramount+
2:45 PM ET
Proj1.5–0.8
LAZLazioHOME51%1.5proj-104fair+104mkt+2.1%DRWDraw29%—proj+245fair+235mkt-0.9%
GENGenoaAWAY20%0.8proj+401fair+360mkt-1.8%O2.5 40% · mkt 41%BTTS 45%
Paramount+
Monday, August 31
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
12:30 PM ET
Proj0.8–1.5
LECLecceHOME20%0.8proj+408fair+529mkt+3.8%DRWDraw29%—proj+248fair+303mkt+4.0%
ROMAAS RomaAWAY52%1.5proj-106fair-146mkt-7.8%O2.5 41% · mkt 43%BTTS 45%
Paramount+
2:45 PM ET
Proj1.2–1.0
ATAAtalantaHOME40%1.2proj+153fair-102mkt-10.9%DRWDraw31%—proj+224fair+293mktModel lean+5.4%
BOLBolognaAWAY30%1.0proj+237fair+321mktModel lean+5.9%O2.5 40% · mkt 53%BTTS 48%
Paramount+
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Serie A table
Updated daily from final results2026-2027 Italian Serie A
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 | LWWWW |
| 2 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 | WWWLW |
| 4 | AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | WWWDW |
| 5 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | WWWLW |
| 6 | Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 | LWLWW |
| 7 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 | WLWWW |
| 8 | Como | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | WLLWD |
| 9 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | LWLDD |
| 10 | Bologna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WDLDL |
| 11 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LLWLL |
| 12 | Lazio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LDWDW |
| 13 | AS Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LWLWW |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | WDLDL |
| 15 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 17 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | DLLWL |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | WLLLL |
| 19 | Venezia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | DWLLL |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | LLWLL |