Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad
Kickoff, where to watch, and how the model sees it.
Atlético–
Real Sociedad–3:00 PM ETReale Arena📺 ESPN+Lineups, the pitch view and match stats land at kickoff.
What the model says
Sunday, September 13, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
3:00 PM ET
Proj1.5–1.5
Real SociedadHOME38%1.5proj+160fair+205mktModel lean+5.6%Draw27%—proj+276fair+277mkt+0.0%
Atlético MadridAWAY35%1.5proj+185fair+145mkt-5.8%O2.5 57% · mkt 57%BTTS 61%
ESPN+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff.
Going in
La Liga tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Ademola Lookman1+ Goals31%––Álex Baena1+ Goals30%––Giuliano Simeone1+ Goals30%––Julián Álvarez1+ Goals27%––Orri Óskarsson1+ Goals23%––Shots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Giuliano Simeone1+ Shots91%––Ademola Lookman1+ Shots91%––Mikel Oyarzabal1+ Shots91%––Julián Álvarez1+ Shots85%––Lee Kang-In1+ Shots85%––Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Mikel Oyarzabal1+ Shots on Target66%––Ademola Lookman1+ Shots on Target63%––Julián Álvarez1+ Shots on Target58%––Orri Óskarsson1+ Shots on Target56%––Giuliano Simeone1+ Shots on Target54%––Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Giuliano SimeoneO0.526%––Mikel OyarzabalO0.525%––Lee Kang-InO0.518%––Pablo BarriosO0.518%––Marcos LlorenteO0.517%––Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Giuliano Simeone48%––Álex Baena41%––Mikel Oyarzabal41%––Ademola Lookman37%––Julián Álvarez35%––Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last meetingAtlético Madrid lead 1-04–0 on goals