La Liga Match Board
Every match priced by our goals-based goal model — our line (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. A gold Model lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most — and this league is priced off actual goals, not xG, so trust it even less until it grades out; we're tracking every match publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
Season · all graded matches
ML6-8−1.8u
Over 2.56-8−3.8u
BTTS6-8−3.2u
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 12 of 14 on Over 2.5.
Monday, August 24
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 0–0
Proj1.9–0.8
OSAOsasunaHOME63%1.9proj-169fair-104mktModel lean+11.9%DRWDraw23%—proj+328fair+267mkt-3.9%
LEVLevanteAWAY14%0.8proj+624fair+361mkt-7.9%O2.5 51% · mkt 45%BTTS 48% · mkt 49%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
FT · 1–1
Proj1.2–1.0
MCFMálagaHOME39%1.2proj+158fair+145mkt-2.1%DRWDraw31%—proj+220fair+219mkt-0.1%
DEPDeportivoAWAY30%1.0proj+233fair+260mkt+2.3%O2.5 39% · mkt 42%BTTS 47% · mkt 51%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Tuesday, August 25
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
3:00 PM ET
Proj1.1–1.2
VALValenciaHOME32%1.1proj+211fair+193mkt-1.9%DRWDraw32%—proj+217fair+249mkt+2.9%
BETReal BetisAWAY36%1.2proj+176fair+169mkt-0.9%O2.5 38% · mkt 48%BTTS 46% · mkt 55%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Wednesday, August 26
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
3:00 PM ET
Proj2.0–0.9
RMAReal MadridHOME63%2.0proj-170fair-244mkt-8.1%DRWDraw23%—proj+340fair+481mktModel lean+5.5%
RSOReal SociedadAWAY14%0.9proj+596fair+734mkt+2.4%O2.5 54%BTTS 51%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Thursday, August 27
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
2:30 PM ET
Proj1.3–0.8
CELCelta VigoHOME46%1.3proj+116fair+110mkt-1.3%DRWDraw32%—proj+215fair+253mkt+3.5%
OSAOsasunaAWAY22%0.8proj+358fair+320mkt-1.9%O2.5 34% · mkt 45%BTTS 40%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
3:00 PM ET
Proj3.1–0.8
BARBarcelonaHOME82%3.1proj-442fair-242mktModel lean+10.8%DRWDraw12%—proj+705fair+478mkt-4.9%
ATHAthletic ClubAWAY6%0.8proj+1562fair+740mkt-5.9%O2.5 74%BTTS 53%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Friday, August 28
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
1:00 PM ET
Proj1.5–1.1
RACRacing SantanderHOME46%1.5proj+118fair+128mkt+2.0%DRWDraw28%—proj+259fair+268mkt+0.7%
ELCElcheAWAY26%1.1proj+279fair+244mkt-2.7%O2.5 50% · mkt 52%BTTS 54%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
3:30 PM ET
Proj1.5–1.4
ALAAlavésHOME39%1.5proj+159fair+219mktModel lean+7.2%DRWDraw27%—proj+267fair+261mkt-0.5%
VILVillarrealAWAY34%1.4proj+192fair+144mkt-6.7%O2.5 55% · mkt 53%BTTS 59%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Saturday, August 29
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
11:00 AM ET
Proj0.9–1.6
LEVLevanteHOME20%0.9proj+407fair+236mkt-10.0%DRWDraw27%—proj+267fair+257mkt-0.7%
BETReal BetisAWAY53%1.6proj-113fair+141mktModel lean+11.4%O2.5 46% · mkt 50%BTTS 49%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
1:00 PM ET
Proj1.2–1.2
RSOReal SociedadHOME35%1.2proj+187fair-102mkt-15.7%DRWDraw30%—proj+229fair+287mktModel lean+4.5%
ESPEspanyolAWAY35%1.2proj+188fair+324mktModel lean+11.2%O2.5 43% · mkt 52%BTTS 50%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
3:30 PM ET
Proj1.6–1.6
SEVSevillaHOME38%1.6proj+161fair+282mktModel lean+12.0%DRWDraw26%—proj+291fair+260mkt-2.2%
ATMAtlético MadridAWAY36%1.6proj+176fair+117mkt-9.9%O2.5 62% · mkt 49%BTTS 65%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Sunday, August 30
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
11:00 AM ET
Proj2.0–0.8
RMAReal MadridHOME65%2.0proj-189fair-422mkt-15.4%DRWDraw22%—proj+350fair+716mktModel lean+10.0%
MCFMálagaAWAY12%0.8proj+709fair+1270mktModel lean+5.1%O2.5 52%BTTS 47%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
1:30 PM ET
Proj1.2–0.9
DEPDeportivoHOME41%1.2proj+144fair+175mktModel lean+4.5%DRWDraw32%—proj+212fair+233mkt+2.0%
VALValenciaAWAY27%0.9proj+270fair+198mkt-6.5%O2.5 36% · mkt 41%BTTS 44%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
3:30 PM ET
Proj1.6–0.8
CELCelta VigoHOME54%1.6proj-119fair+149mktModel lean+14.2%DRWDraw28%—proj+263fair+250mkt-1.0%
ATHAthletic ClubAWAY18%0.8proj+450fair+219mkt-13.2%O2.5 43% · mkt 45%BTTS 46%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Monday, August 31
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
1:30 PM ET
Proj1.2–0.7
OSAOsasunaHOME48%1.2proj+109fair+125mkt+3.3%DRWDraw33%—proj+206fair+238mkt+3.1%
GETGetafeAWAY20%0.7proj+412fair+286mkt-6.4%O2.5 30% · mkt 38%BTTS 36%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
3:30 PM ET
Proj2.8–0.8
BARBarcelonaHOME78%2.8proj-354fair-349mkt+0.2%DRWDraw15%—proj+585fair+609mkt+0.5%
RAYRayo VallecanoAWAY7%0.8proj+1245fair+1127mkt-0.7%O2.5 70%BTTS 52%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
La Liga table
Updated daily from final results2026-27 LALIGA
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 | LDLWW |
| 2 | Alavés | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 4 | WLLWD |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 | LLWWD |
| 4 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 | WWWWW |
| 5 | Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | WLWWW |
| 7 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 | WLDWW |
| 8 | Getafe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 | LLLLW |
| 9 | Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | WWLDD |
| 10 | Deportivo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | DD |
| 11 | Valencia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | WDDLD |
| 12 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | WLWWD |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | LDLLD |
| 15 | Elche | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 | DLWDL |
| 16 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LWLWD |
| 17 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | WLLDL |
| 18 | Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | LWLLL |
| 19 | Málaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | LD |
| 20 | Levante | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | LLDLD |