La Liga Match Board
Every match priced by our goals-based goal model — the WizLine (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. A gold Model lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most — and this league is priced off actual goals, not xG, so trust it even less until it grades out; we're tracking every match publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
Today · how the model graded
2026-27 · all graded matches
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 70 of 72 on ML, 55 of 72 on Over 2.5, 70 of 72 on BTTS.
Saturday, October 10
MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
Rayo VallecanoHOME44%1.4proj+129fair+185mktModel lean+8.5%Draw29%—proj+244fair+248mkt+0.3%
Athletic ClubAWAY27%1.1proj+267fair+177mkt-8.8%O2.5 46% · mkt 48%BTTS 51% · mkt 54%1H O1.5 31% · mkt 32%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
AlavésHOME34%1.4proj+190fair+364mktModel lean+12.9%Draw28%—proj+260fair+287mkt+1.9%
Atlético MadridAWAY✓38%1.4proj+165fair-111mkt-14.9%O2.5 52% · mkt 51% ✓BTTS 57% · mkt 53% ✓1H O1.5 36% · mkt 34% ✗
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
BarcelonaHOME✓77%2.3proj-327fair-644mkt-10.0%Draw17%—proj+489fair+1030mktModel lean+8.1%
GetafeAWAY6%0.6proj+1453fair+2028mkt+1.7%O2.5 55% ✓BTTS 39% · mkt 43% ✓1H O1.5 37% · mkt 53% ✗
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Real MadridHOME63%2.4proj-173fair-234mkt-6.8%Draw20%—proj+402fair+504mkt+3.3%
VillarrealAWAY17%1.2proj+496fair+641mkt+3.3%O2.5 70%BTTS 65% · mkt 61%1H O1.5 48% · mkt 52%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Sunday, October 11
MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
ElcheHOME40%1.5proj+152fair+194mktModel lean+5.8%Draw28%—proj+263fair+241mkt-1.7%
Celta VigoAWAY33%1.3proj+206fair+171mkt-4.3%O2.5 53% · mkt 47%BTTS 58% · mkt 55%1H O0.5 70% · mkt 67%
ESPN+
Real SociedadHOME45%1.8proj+123fair-146mkt-14.5%Draw25%—proj+295fair+326mkt+1.8%
DeportivoAWAY30%1.4proj+236fair+487mktModel lean+12.7%O2.5 61% · mkt 53%BTTS 63% · mkt 54%1H O1.5 42% · mkt 35%
ESPN+
Real BetisHOME61%1.9proj-158fair-167mkt-1.4%Draw24%—proj+323fair+361mkt+2.0%
OsasunaAWAY15%0.9proj+562fair+531mkt-0.7%O2.5 52% · mkt 55%BTTS 50% · mkt 51%1H O1.5 35% · mkt 37%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Racing SantanderHOME45%1.9proj+121fair+143mktModel lean+4.2%Draw24%—proj+314fair+273mkt-2.7%
ValenciaAWAY31%1.5proj+227fair+211mkt-1.6%O2.5 66% · mkt 57%BTTS 67%1H O1.5 45%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Monday, October 12
MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
LevanteHOME44%1.6proj+128fair+184mktModel lean+8.6%Draw27%—proj+269fair+251mkt-1.4%
SevillaAWAY29%1.3proj+243fair+177mkt-7.0%O2.5 54% · mkt 47%BTTS 58%1H O1.5 36%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Friday, October 16
MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
DeportivoHOME51%1.8proj-106fair+122mktModel lean+6.3%Draw25%—proj+299fair+270mkt-2.0%
LevanteAWAY24%1.2proj+325fair+264mkt-3.9%O2.5 58%BTTS 59%1H O1.5 39%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Saturday, October 17
MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
EspanyolHOME29%1.2proj+251fair+347mktModel lean+6.1%Draw27%—proj+267fair+296mkt+2.0%
Atlético MadridAWAY44%1.6proj+126fair-110mkt-8.2%O2.5 53%BTTS 57%1H O1.5 36%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
VillarrealHOME62%2.4proj-164fair-189mkt-3.3%Draw20%—proj+400fair+421mkt+0.8%
ElcheAWAY18%1.3proj+459fair+535mkt+2.1%O2.5 71%BTTS 66%1H O1.5 50%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Real BetisHOME25%1.3proj+301fair+538mktModel lean+9.2%Draw24%—proj+318fair+484mktModel lean+6.8%
BarcelonaAWAY51%2.0proj-105fair-205mkt-16.1%O2.5 64%BTTS 64%1H O1.5 43%
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
La Liga table
Updated daily from final results2026-27 LALIGA
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 | LWWWD |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 | WLWWL |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 | LDWWL |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 | WLLDL |
| 7 | Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 | WWDLD |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 | LLLWW |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 | LWWDD |
| 11 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 | DWLLD |
| 12 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 | DDLWL |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 | LWLWD |
| 14 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 | WLLLD |
| 15 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 | LDDDW |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 | WLWLL |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 | DWDLL |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 | LLDLW |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LLLWL |
| 20 |  Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | DDLLD |