Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Real Sociedad1
Real Madrid4Full timeSantiago BernabéuBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Wednesday, August 26, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 4–1
Proj1.9–0.9
Real MadridHOME✓61%1.9proj-156fair-367mkt-17.6%Draw24%—proj+320fair+642mktModel lean+10.3%
Real SociedadAWAY15%0.9proj+556fair+1163mktModel lean+7.3%O2.5 52% ✓BTTS 50% · mkt 51% ✗
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
La Liga tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé1+ Goals47%70%-230✓ 3Jude Bellingham1+ Goals30%31%+255✗ 0Vinícius Júnior1+ Goals24%49%+135✓ 1Mikel Oyarzabal1+ Goals20%23%+333✗ 0Rodrygo1+ Goals18%––DNPShots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé1+ Shots99%––✓ 8Kylian Mbappé2+ Shots94%99%-10000✓ 8Vinícius Júnior1+ Shots93%––✓ 4Jude Bellingham1+ Shots86%96%-2500✓ 1Mikel Oyarzabal1+ Shots86%94%-1500✓ 1Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé1+ Shots on Target85%94%-1500✓ 7Jude Bellingham1+ Shots on Target65%68%-210✗ 0Vinícius Júnior1+ Shots on Target65%83%-500✓ 2Kylian Mbappé2+ Shots on Target57%74%-280✓ 7Mikel Oyarzabal1+ Shots on Target54%59%-145✓ 1Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Arda GülerO0.524%42%+140✗ 0Vinícius JúniorO0.519%41%+145✓ 1Fran GarcíaO0.518%––DNP
Jude BellinghamO0.517%42%+140✓ 2Kylian MbappéO0.517%36%+180✗ 0Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Kylian Mbappé56%––✓ 3Jude Bellingham42%––✓ 2Vinícius Júnior38%––✓ 2Arda Güler33%––✗ 0Mikel Oyarzabal29%––✗ 0Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 3 meetingsReal Madrid lead 3-08–2 on goals