Málaga vs Atlético Madrid
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Málaga0
Atlético2Full timeRiyadh Air MetropolitanoBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Wednesday, August 19, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 2–0
Proj1.8–0.9
Atlético MadridHOME✓57%1.8proj-135fair-225mkt-11.8%Draw25%—proj+301fair+427mktModel lean+6.0%
MálagaAWAY18%0.9proj+466fair+738mktModel lean+5.8%O2.5 51% · mkt 60% ✗BTTS 51% · mkt 50% ✗
ESPN Deportes · ESPN+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
La Liga tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Julián Álvarez1+ Goals29%46%+140DNPGiuliano Simeone1+ Goals23%25%+360✗ 0Álex Baena1+ Goals15%––✓ 1Antoine Griezmann1+ Goals15%––DNPAlexander Sørloth1+ Goals13%52%+105DNPShots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Giuliano Simeone1+ Shots88%91%-1000✗ 0Julián Álvarez1+ Shots85%99%-7000DNPNahuel Molina1+ Shots73%––DNP
Rodrigo De Paul1+ Shots72%––DNPPablo Barrios1+ Shots71%83%-475✗ 0Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Julián Álvarez1+ Shots on Target57%86%-600DNPGiuliano Simeone1+ Shots on Target54%55%-120✗ 0Rodrigo De Paul1+ Shots on Target37%––DNPÁlex Baena1+ Shots on Target37%––✓ 1Nico González1+ Shots on Target35%––DNP
Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Giuliano SimeoneO0.519%29%+250✗ 0Marcos LlorenteO0.517%24%+310✗ 0Nahuel MolinaO0.513%––DNP
Álex BaenaO0.513%––✗ 0KokeO0.512%21%+380✗ 0Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Giuliano Simeone38%––✗ 0Julián Álvarez36%––DNPÁlex Baena26%––✓ 1Marcos Llorente25%––✗ 0Nahuel Molina23%––DNP
Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last meetingAtlético Madrid lead 1-02–0 on goals