🛡 1u playLost -1.00u
+112
Live hit prob0.0%
Johnsonvs McConico · Middleweight-210✓
Álvarezvs Njokuani · Welterweight-230✕
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Sat, August 15, 2026 — Xfinity Mobile Arena · Philadelphia · PA · 📺 Paramount+. Model record on this card: 5-7. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.
Card complete
12 of 12 fights finalWinner picks
5–742%
our >50% side
Round totals
8–467%
our side of over/under 2½
How it ends
5–742%
our most-likely method
Leans vs the book
0–10%
where we disagreed with the book
WizLays
1–3-0.82u
all slips settled
Every fight we priced, graded against the result — not a curated subset. A method call counts when the outcome we made most likely is the one that happened. Leans are only the spots where we disagreed with the book, which is the subset worth betting.
WizLays
This card1-3-0.82u
Season8-10+5.27u+29% ROI
🛡 +1006-5+1.43u
⚡ +5001-3+0.77u
🔥 +10001-2+3.06u
The model's most-likely stacks for UFC 330, across a range of payouts. Frozen when posted, graded after the card. The moonshot is just for fun. Not a tip.
🛡 1u playWon +1.18u
+118
Live hit prob100%
Makhachevvs Garry · Welterweight-325✓- Under 2.5 RdsTobias vs Fernando · Light Heavyweight-150✓
⚡ 0.5u playLost -0.50u
+433
Live hit prob0.0%
Robertsonvs Dern · Women's Strawweight+220✕- Under 2.5 RdsTobias vs Fernando · Light Heavyweight-150✓
🔥 0.5u playLost -0.50u
+1070
Live hit prob0.0%
Luquevs Gore · Middleweight+125✕
Turnervs Fernandes · Lightweight-160✓- Robertsonvs Dern · Women's Strawweight+220✕
🌙 for funNot graded
+2185
Live hit prob0.0%
Magnyvs Brahimaj · Welterweight+115✓- Luquevs Gore · Middleweight+125✕
- Johnsonvs McConico · Middleweight-210✓
- Robertsonvs Dern · Women's Strawweight+220✕
Prices are frozen at the best book number when the slip posts, and each slip grades at that price. UFC grades out efficient in our model, so this is for fun, not an edge — stacking legs multiplies the book's vig. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Main Card
fight lengthwe said 65% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 48% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 71% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 59% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 55% under 2½ · went R1 0:39 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 41% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 38%
fight lengthwe said 55% under 2½ · went R2 0:35 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 40% · was Submission ✗ we had it 23%
fight lengthwe said 56% over 2½ · went R2 1:32 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 52% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 33%
Prelims
fight lengthwe said 52% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 48% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 61% over 2½ · went R3 3:24 ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 57% · was Submission ✗ we had it 15%
fight lengthwe said 51% over 2½ · went R1 1:38 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 47% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 34%
fight lengthwe said 53% under 2½ · went the distance ✗ over
how it endswe said Decision 42% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
Early Prelims
fight lengthwe said 61% under 2½ · went R3 1:10 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 46% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 51% under 2½ · went R2 3:20 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 45% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 36%
fight lengthwe said 59% over 2½ · went R3 1:24 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 55% · was Submission ✗ we had it 19%