UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Sat, August 15, 2026 — Xfinity Mobile Arena · Philadelphia · PA · 📺 Paramount+. Model record on this card: 5-7. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.

Card complete

12 of 12 fights final

Every fight we priced, graded against the result — not a curated subset. A method call counts when the outcome we made most likely is the one that happened. Leans are only the spots where we disagreed with the book, which is the subset worth betting.

WizLays

This card1-3-0.82u

🛡 +10012-14-1.09u

⚡ +5001-7-1.23u

🔥 +10002-5+5.74u

The model's most-likely stacks for UFC 330, across a range of payouts. Frozen when posted, graded after the card. The moonshot is just for fun. Not a tip.

🛡 1u playLost -1.00u

+112

Live hit prob

0.0%

Johnsonvs McConico · Middleweight
-210✓
Álvarezvs Njokuani · Welterweight
-230✕

🛡 1u playWon +1.18u

+118

Live hit prob

100%

Makhachevvs Garry · Welterweight
-325✓
Under 2.5 RdsTobias vs Fernando · Light Heavyweight
-150✓

⚡ 0.5u playLost -0.50u

+433

Live hit prob

0.0%

Robertsonvs Dern · Women's Strawweight
+220✕
Under 2.5 RdsTobias vs Fernando · Light Heavyweight
-150✓

🔥 0.5u playLost -0.50u

+1070

Live hit prob

0.0%

Luquevs Gore · Middleweight
+125✕
Robertsonvs Dern · Women's Strawweight
+220✕
Turnervs Fernandes · Lightweight
-160✓

🌙 for funNot graded

+2185

Live hit prob

0.0%

Luquevs Gore · Middleweight
+125✕
Robertsonvs Dern · Women's Strawweight
+220✕
Magnyvs Brahimaj · Welterweight
+115✓
Johnsonvs McConico · Middleweight
-210✓

Prices are frozen at the best book number when the slip posts, and each slip grades at that price. UFC grades out efficient in our model, so this is for fun, not an edge — stacking legs multiplies the book's vig. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

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Main Card

Welterweight · 5 RDSDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Islam Makhachev29-1-0✓ WizPick

WizLine-168 (63%)+168 (37%)best book-350 (75%)+290 (25%)

Ian Machado Garry17-2-0

fight lengthwe said 65% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over

how it endswe said Decision 48% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓

Women's Strawweight · 5 RDSDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Mackenzie Dern17-5-0

WizLine+138 (42%)-138 (58%)best book-200 (64%)+180 (36%)

Gillian Robertson17-9-0✗ WizPick

fight lengthwe said 71% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over

how it endswe said Decision 59% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓

LightweightKO/TKO · R1 0:39⚔ compare

Jalin Turner16-9-0✓ WizPick

WizLine-139 (58%)+139 (42%)best book-110 (51%)-102 (49%)

Kauê Fernandes11-3-0

fight lengthwe said 55% under 2½ · went R1 0:39 ✓ under

how it endswe said Decision 41% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 38%

MiddleweightSubmission · R2 0:35⚔ compare

Mansur Abdul-Malik9-2-1✗ WizPick

WizLine-262 (72%)+262 (28%)best book-700 (84%)+520 (16%)

Dustin Stoltzfus17-8-0

fight lengthwe said 55% under 2½ · went R2 0:35 ✓ under

how it endswe said Decision 40% · was Submission ✗ we had it 23%

LightweightKO/TKO · R2 1:32⚔ compare

Edson Barboza24-15-0

WizLine+275 (27%)-275 (73%)best book+525 (16%)-650 (84%)

Esteban Ribovics17-3-0✓ WizPick

fight lengthwe said 56% over 2½ · went R2 1:32 ✗ under

how it endswe said Decision 52% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 33%

Prelims

WelterweightDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Chidi Njokuani26-12-0

WizLine+205 (33%)-205 (67%)best book+260 (28%)-295 (72%)

Joel Álvarez23-5-0✗ WizPick

fight lengthwe said 52% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over

how it endswe said Decision 48% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓

Catch WeightSubmission · R3 3:24⚔ compare

Charles Johnson20-9-0

WizLine+101 (50%)-101 (50%)best book-120 (52%)+102 (48%)

Eduardo Chapolin15-3-0✗ WizPick

fight lengthwe said 61% over 2½ · went R3 3:24 ✓ over

how it endswe said Decision 57% · was Submission ✗ we had it 15%

MiddleweightKO/TKO · R1 1:38⚔ compare

Donte Johnson9-0-0✓ WizPick

WizLine-418 (81%)+418 (19%)best book-300 (73%)+260 (27%)

Eric McConico11-5-1

fight lengthwe said 51% over 2½ · went R1 1:38 ✗ under

how it endswe said Decision 47% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 34%

MiddleweightDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Vicente Luque24-13-1✗ WizPick

WizLine-176 (64%)+176 (36%)best book-102 (49%)-112 (51%)

Tresean Gore8-4-0

fight lengthwe said 53% under 2½ · went the distance ✗ over

how it endswe said Decision 42% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓

Early Prelims

Light HeavyweightKO/TKO · R3 1:10⚔ compare

Rafael Tobias14-3-0✗ WizPick

WizLine-179 (64%)+179 (36%)best book+240 (28%)-285 (72%)

Lucas Fernando14-3-0

fight lengthwe said 61% under 2½ · went R3 1:10 ✓ under

how it endswe said KO/TKO 46% · was KO/TKO ✓

WelterweightKO/TKO · R2 3:20⚔ compare

Neil Magny32-15-0✓ WizPick

WizLine-124 (55%)+124 (45%)best book+124 (43%)-145 (57%)

Ramiz Brahimaj13-7-0

fight lengthwe said 51% under 2½ · went R2 3:20 ✓ under

how it endswe said Decision 45% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 36%

WelterweightSubmission · R3 1:24⚔ compare

Jeremiah Wells14-4-1

WizLine+261 (28%)-261 (72%)best book+750 (12%)-1000 (88%)

Myktybek Orolbai16-3-1✗ WizPick

fight lengthwe said 59% over 2½ · went R3 1:24 ✗ under

how it endswe said Decision 55% · was Submission ✗ we had it 19%

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