Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 1

Tue, August 11, 2026 — Meta APEX · Las Vegas · NV · 📺 Paramount+. Model record on this card: 3-2. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.

Card complete

5 of 5 fights final

Winner picks

3–260%

our >50% side

Round totals

3–260%

our side of over/under 2½

How it ends

3–260%

our most-likely method

Leans vs the book

—

where we disagreed with the book

WizLays

2–0+3.64u

all slips settled

Every fight we priced, graded against the result — not a curated subset. A method call counts when the outcome we made most likely is the one that happened. Leans are only the spots where we disagreed with the book, which is the subset worth betting.

WizLays

This card2-0+3.64u

Season8-10+5.27u+29% ROI

🛡 +1006-5+1.43u

⚡ +5001-3+0.77u

🔥 +10001-2+3.06u

The model's most-likely stacks for Dana White's Contender Series, across a range of payouts. Frozen when posted, graded after the card. The moonshot is just for fun. Not a tip.

🛡 1u playWon +1.37u

+137

Live hit prob

100%

WW
Wintvs Adams · Heavyweight
-850✓
AA
Alsaghirvs Escarrega · Lightweight
+112✓

⚡ 0.5u playWon +2.27u

+454

Live hit prob

100%

PP
Pagliarulovs Mulumba · Featherweight
+134✓
WW
Wintvs Adams · Heavyweight
-850✓
AA
Alsaghirvs Escarrega · Lightweight
+112✓

🌙 for funNot graded

+2656

Live hit prob

0.0%

SS
Saikiavs Hasan · Flyweight
+1200✕
AA
Alsaghirvs Escarrega · Lightweight
+112✓

Prices are frozen at the best book number when the slip posts, and each slip grades at that price. UFC grades out efficient in our model, so this is for fun, not an edge — stacking legs multiplies the book's vig. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

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