🛡 1u playLost -1.00u
+138
Live hit prob0.0%
McVeyvs Schultz · Middleweight-185✓- Over 2.5 RdsMederos vs Jones · Lightweight-184✕
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Sat, August 22, 2026 — Golden 1 Center · Sacramento · CA · 📺 Paramount+. Model record on this card: 8-5. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.
Card complete
13 of 13 fights finalWinner picks
8–562%
our >50% side
Round totals
8–562%
our side of over/under 2½
How it ends
4–931%
our most-likely method
Leans vs the book
3–175%
where we disagreed with the book
WizLays
1–3+1.56u
all slips settled
Every fight we priced, graded against the result — not a curated subset. A method call counts when the outcome we made most likely is the one that happened. Leans are only the spots where we disagreed with the book, which is the subset worth betting.
WizLays
This card1-3+1.56u
Season8-10+5.27u+29% ROI
🛡 +1006-5+1.43u
⚡ +5001-3+0.77u
🔥 +10001-2+3.06u
The model's most-likely stacks for UFC Fight Night, across a range of payouts. Frozen when posted, graded after the card. The moonshot is just for fun. Not a tip.
🛡 1u playLost -1.00u
+137
Live hit prob0.0%
- Over 2.5 RdsYoung vs Dorsainvil · Lightweight-184✓
- Over 2.5 RdsPadilla vs Haqparast · Lightweight-187✕
⚡ 0.5u playLost -0.50u
+529
Live hit prob0.0%
Emmersvs Douglas · Featherweight+302✓
Hernandezvs Rodrigues · Middleweight-177✕
🔥 0.5u playWon +4.06u
+813
Live hit prob100%
- Over 2.5 RdsDyer vs Reed · Women's Strawweight+127✓
- Emmersvs Douglas · Featherweight+302✓
🌙 for funNot graded
+2363
Live hit prob0.0%
- Over 2.5 RdsDyer vs Reed · Women's Strawweight+127✓
Nzechukwuvs Gaziev · Heavyweight+117✕
Chavesvs Judice · Women's Flyweight+400✕
Prices are frozen at the best book number when the slip posts, and each slip grades at that price. UFC grades out efficient in our model, so this is for fun, not an edge — stacking legs multiplies the book's vig. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Main Card
fight lengthwe said 54% under 2½ · went the distance ✗ over
how it endswe said KO/TKO 45% · was Decision - Unanimous ✗ we had it 31%
fight lengthwe said 66% under 2½ · went the distance ✗ over
how it endswe said KO/TKO 45% · was Decision - Unanimous ✗ we had it 31%
fight lengthwe said 60% under 2½ · went R1 4:01 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 44% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 64% over 2½ · went R2 2:53 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 60% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 28%
fight lengthwe said 70% over 2½ · went R1 3:21 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 67% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 21%
fight lengthwe said 56% under 2½ · went R1 4:29 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 58% · was Submission ✗ we had it 6%
Prelims
fight lengthwe said 50% under 2½ · went R1 1:22 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 49% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 36%
fight lengthwe said 67% under 2½ · went R1 3:40 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 55% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 56% over 2½ · went R3 0:01 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 51% · was Submission ✗ we had it 12%
fight lengthwe said 53% under 2½ · went R1 2:13 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 44% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 40%
fight lengthwe said 59% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 53% · was Decision ✓
fight lengthwe said 63% under 2½ · went R1 0:47 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 40% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 65% over 2½ · went R3 3:18 ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 62% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 23%