🛡 1u playLost -1.00u
+137
Live hit prob0.0%
Jr.vs Barcelos · Bantamweight-162✓- Over 2.5 RdsDemopoulos vs Jauregui · Women's Strawweight-215✕
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Sat, September 26, 2026 — Meta APEX · Las Vegas · NV · 📺 Paramount+. Model record on this card: 7-5. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.
Card complete
12 of 12 fights finalEvery fight we priced, graded against the result — not a curated subset. A method call counts when the outcome we made most likely is the one that happened. Leans are only the spots where we disagreed with the book, which is the subset worth betting.
WizLays
This card0-3-3.00u
🛡 +10012-14-1.09u
⚡ +5001-7-1.23u
🔥 +10002-5+5.74u
The model's most-likely stacks for UFC Fight Night, across a range of payouts. Frozen when posted, graded after the card. The moonshot is just for fun. Not a tip.
🛡 1u playLost -1.00u
-109
Live hit prob0.0%
Jacksonvs Simon · Bantamweight-205✓
Castanedavs Alatengheili · Bantamweight-347✕
🛡 1u playLost -1.00u
+108
Live hit prob0.0%
- Over 2.5 RdsAmaya vs Machado · Women's Strawweight-299✕
Bellatovs Edwards · Light Heavyweight-180✕
Prices are frozen at the best book number when the slip posts, and each slip grades at that price. UFC grades out efficient in our model, so this is for fun, not an edge — stacking legs multiplies the book's vig. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Main Card
fight lengthwe said 61% over 2½ · went R5 3:21 ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 46% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 30%
fight lengthwe said 78% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 73% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 63% under 2½ · went R1 0:57 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 47% · was Submission ✗ we had it 20%
fight lengthwe said 50% under 2½ · went R1 2:41 ✓ under
fight lengthwe said 67% over 2½ · went R2 1:41 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 63% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 18%
Prelims
fight lengthwe said 51% over 2½ · went R2 4:07 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 47% · was Submission ✗ we had it 29%
fight lengthwe said 53% under 2½ · went the distance ✗ over
how it endswe said Decision 44% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 59% under 2½ · went R3 3:12 ✗ over
how it endswe said KO/TKO 49% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 52% under 2½ · went R1 0:46 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 44% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 42%
fight lengthwe said 60% over 2½ · went R2 2:21 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 57% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 23%
fight lengthwe said 63% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 60% · was Decision - Split ✓
fight lengthwe said 72% over 2½ · went R1 1:02 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 69% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 19%