UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez

Sat, February 21, 2026 — Toyota Center (Houston) · Houston · TX. Model record on this card: 8-5 (backtest). Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.

Card complete

14 of 14 fights final

Winner picks

8–562%

our >50% side

Round totals

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our side of over/under 2½

How it ends

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our most-likely method

Leans vs the book

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where we disagreed with the book

Every fight we priced, graded against the result — not a curated subset. A method call counts when the outcome we made most likely is the one that happened. Leans are only the spots where we disagreed with the book, which is the subset worth betting.

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Main Card

Middleweight · 5 RDSbacktestKO/TKO · R3 2:23⚔ compare

Sean Strickland31-7-0

our line+143 (41%)-143 (59%)bookno line posted yet

Anthony Hernandez15-4-0✗ our pick

WelterweightbacktestKO/TKO · R1 1:19⚔ compare

Geoff Neal16-8-0

our line+112 (47%)-112 (53%)bookno line posted yet

Uroš Medić14-3-0✓ our pick

FeatherweightbacktestKO/TKO · R1 4:56⚔ compare

Dan Ige19-11-0

our line+147 (41%)-147 (59%)bookno line posted yet

Melquizael Costa26-8-0✓ our pick

HeavyweightbacktestDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Serghei Spivac18-7-0✓ our pick

our line-249 (71%)+249 (29%)bookno line posted yet

Ante Delija26-8-0

WelterweightbacktestKO/TKO · R1 3:01⚔ compare

Jacobe Smith12-0-0✓ our pick

our line-220 (69%)+220 (31%)bookno line posted yet

Josiah Harrell11-1-0

MiddleweightbacktestDecision - Split⚔ compare

Zach Reese10-4-0✗ our pick

our line-138 (58%)+138 (42%)bookno line posted yet

Michel Pereira32-15-0

Prelims

WelterweightbacktestDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Chidi Njokuani26-12-0✗ our pick

our line-124 (55%)+124 (45%)bookno line posted yet

Carlos Leal23-7-0

FlyweightNo Contest · R3 5:00⚔ compare

Ode' Osbourne13-10-0

vs

Alibi Idiris12-1-0

FlyweightbacktestDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Alden Coria13-3-0✓ our pick

our line-130 (56%)+130 (44%)bookno line posted yet

Luis Gurule11-4-0

Women's BantamweightbacktestSubmission · R2 2:44⚔ compare

Nora Cornolle9-4-0

our line+199 (33%)-199 (67%)bookno line posted yet

Joselyne Edwards18-6-0✓ our pick

WelterweightbacktestDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Ramiz Brahimaj13-7-0

our line+138 (42%)-138 (58%)bookno line posted yet

Punahele Soriano13-4-0✓ our pick

WelterweightbacktestDecision - Split⚔ compare

Phil Rowe11-7-0✗ our pick

our line-110 (52%)+110 (48%)bookno line posted yet

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani11-2-0

FeatherweightbacktestDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Jordan Leavitt13-4-0

our line+140 (42%)-140 (58%)bookno line posted yet

Yadier del Valle11-1-0✗ our pick

Women's FlyweightbacktestDecision - Unanimous⚔ compare

Juliana Miller6-4-0

our line+152 (40%)-152 (60%)bookno line posted yet

Carli Judice7-2-0✓ our pick

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