Where he stands
Ernesta Kareckaite is 2-2 across 5 fights on our tape. Our rating has him at 1499 — it moves with every result and weights who he beat, so a win over a ranked opponent counts for far more than one over a debutant. A record on its own says very little in this sport — two fighters at 12-3 can have faced completely different opposition, which is exactly the gap the rating is built to close.
He's a volume striker
Ernesta lands 6.5 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 5.5. That differential is modest, which puts him in the large middle of the division rather than the top of it. His takedown defense sits at 84% — for a striker that's the number that decides whether he gets to fight his fight at all.
How the model reads him
Ernesta's number is a matchup output — rating against rating, then style against style, plus age and layoff — graded on the fight board like every other call. Our tape covers UFC and Contender Series bouts from 2015 on, and one punch can settle a fight the better fighter was winning.
The full method is on the fight board, and every published call is graded on the report card.