UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Sat, October 10, 2026 — Meta APEX · Las Vegas · NV · 📺 Paramount+. Model record on this card: 5-6. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.
Card complete
12 of 12 fights finalEvery fight we priced, graded against the result — not a curated subset. A method call counts when the outcome we made most likely is the one that happened. Leans are only the spots where we disagreed with the book, which is the subset worth betting.
Main Card
fight lengthwe said 60% over 2½ · went R5 2:46 ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 42% · was Submission ✗ we had it 17%
fight lengthwe said 58% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 54% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 72% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 69% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 58% over 2½ · went R2 4:38 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 56% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 32%
fight lengthwe said 54% over 2½ · went R2 2:21 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 51% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 31%
Prelims
fight lengthwe said 67% under 2½ · went R2 1:25 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 46% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 54% under 2½ · went R1 0:37 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 42% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 38%
fight lengthwe said 55% under 2½ · went R1 1:58 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 43% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 70% under 2½ · went R1 3:11 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 51% · was Submission ✗ we had it 23%
fight lengthwe said 65% under 2½ · went R1 2:01 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 54% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 70% over 2½ · went R1 5:00 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 64% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 18%
fight lengthwe said 70% over 2½ · went R3 5:00 ✓ over