Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, June 18, 2026)?

Bo Bichette (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, June 18, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Thursday, June 18, 2026: Bo Bichette (100), Chase Meidroth (81), Zack Gelof (76), Bobby Witt Jr. (76), Jackson Chourio (76). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Thursday, June 18, 2026?

No — Bo Bichette didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .325 against lefties this year. Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .303 against lefties this year. Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .357 against lefties this year. Randal Grichuk (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .302 against lefties this year. J.P. Crawford (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .201 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Zack Gelof (ATH), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Tyler Soderstrom (ATH). RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Carson Benge (NYM), and Juan Soto (NYM). RHP Shane Baz has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Cole Young (SEA).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Thursday, June 18, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, June 18, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, June 18, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 65%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 68%

Full slate

86/14460%

season 57%

Top call Chase Meidroth came through. Bo Bichette didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 4–3

TORaway

BOShomeTop matchup66 Final · 4–2

CLEaway

MILhomeTop matchup76 Final · 9–3

MINaway

TEXhomeTop matchup70 Final · 0–3

BALaway

SEAhomeTop matchup71 Final · 6–4

NYMaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–1

CWSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup81 Final · 6–14

STLaway

KChomeTop matchup76 Final · 0–5

LAAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup76

Not starting36 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 180 shownScore

92 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@KC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T1
Carson BengeRF
NYM@PHI· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T1
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@TEX· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T1
Starling MarteRF
KCvsSTL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #53
T1
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsSTL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T1
Victor CaratiniC
MIN@TEX· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #104
T1
Masyn WinnSS
STL@KC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #110
8
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsSTL· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T8
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T8
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsMIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T8
George SpringerDH
TOR@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T8
Juan SotoLF
NYM@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T8
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@PHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T8
Mickey GasperC
BOSvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T8
Lane ThomasLF
KCvsSTL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T8
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@NYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #48
T8
Carter JensenC
KCvsSTL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #56
T8
Josh BellDH
MIN@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #59
T8
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T8
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T8
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TOR@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T8
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T8
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #99
T8
José FermínLF
STL@KC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #100
T8
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsSTL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #102
T8
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@KC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #112
T8
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsSTL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #133
T8
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@TEX· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #134
29
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T29
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T29
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T29
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T29
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T29
Jesús SánchezRF
TOR@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T29
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsSTL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T29
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T29
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T29
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T29
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T29
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T29
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TOR@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T29
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T29
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T29
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
BOSvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #45
T29
Cole Young2B
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #46
T29
Christian YelichDH
MILvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #49
T29
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #50
T29
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #51
T29
Nelson VelázquezLF
STL@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #52
T29
Jacob WilsonSS
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #60
T29
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #61
T29
Colt EmersonSS
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #62
T29
Oswald Peraza2B
LAA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T29
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T29
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T29
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLE@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T29
Christian Moore2B
LAA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T29
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T29
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T29
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T29
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T29
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T29
Edmundo SosaLF
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T29
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T29
David FryRF
CLE@MIL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T29
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T29
Gabriel Arias3B
CLE@MIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T29
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T29
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T29
Victor RoblesRF
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T29
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWS@NYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #103
T29
Josh Smith2B
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #107
T29
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #108
T29
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #114
T29
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #116
T29
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #118
T29
Gary SánchezC
MILvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #119
T29
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #124
T29
Blake PerkinsCF
MILvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #125
T29
Cooper PrattSS
MILvsCLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #127
T29
Colton CowserCF
BAL@SEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #129
T29
Derek HillCF
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #132
T29
Ryan McMahon3B
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #139
T29
Kyle HigashiokaC
TEXvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #141
T29
Miles Mastrobuoni3B
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #142
T29
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #144
T29
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T29
Anthony VolpeSS
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T29
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T29
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@ATH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T29
Steven KwanLF
CLE@MIL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T29
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@NYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, June 18, 2026

Bo Bichette (NYM) is the top hits matchup on the Thursday, June 18, 2026 board at 100, with Chase Meidroth (CWS) and Zack Gelof (ATH) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Bo Bichette

Bo Bichette (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. The righty is hitting .230 H/PA against righties this year — and .409 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Aaron Nola has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .357 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Aaron Nola too — .400 across 10 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Chase Meidroth (CWS) (81) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: an excellent bat at .278 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278).
Zack Gelof (ATH) (76) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .265 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (76) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.265).
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (76) vs LHP Parker Messick: an elite bat at .311 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
JJ Wetherholt (STL) (74) vs LHP Noah Cameron: a strong bat at .253 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.500).
Randal Grichuk (CWS) (71) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: a strong bat at .269 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278).
J.P. Crawford (SEA) (71) vs RHP Shane Baz: a strong bat at .252 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.350).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Zack Gelof (ATH), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Tyler Soderstrom (ATH).
RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Carson Benge (NYM), and Juan Soto (NYM).
RHP Shane Baz has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Cole Young (SEA).

Platoon edges to target

Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .325 against lefties this year.
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .303 against lefties this year.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .357 against lefties this year.
Randal Grichuk (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .302 against lefties this year.
J.P. Crawford (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .201 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Bo Bichette (NYM), Zack Gelof (ATH), Dominic Canzone (SEA), Byron Buxton (MIN), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), and Nick Kurtz (ATH). Cold but due to bounce back: Jordan Walker (STL), Ernie Clement (TOR), Nick Madrigal (LAA), Josh Jung (TEX), and Jared Young (NYM).

How it played out

4 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Bo Bichette finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, June 18, 2026)?: Bo Bichette (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, June 18, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Thursday, June 18, 2026: Bo Bichette (100), Chase Meidroth (81), Zack Gelof (76), Bobby Witt Jr. (76), Jackson Chourio (76). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Thursday, June 18, 2026?: No — Bo Bichette didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .325 against lefties this year. Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .303 against lefties this year. Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .357 against lefties this year. Randal Grichuk (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .302 against lefties this year. J.P. Crawford (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .201 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Zack Gelof (ATH), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Tyler Soderstrom (ATH). RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Carson Benge (NYM), and Juan Soto (NYM). RHP Shane Baz has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Cole Young (SEA).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Bo Bichette (NYM), Zack Gelof (ATH), Dominic Canzone (SEA), Byron Buxton (MIN), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), and Nick Kurtz (ATH). Cold but due to bounce back: Jordan Walker (STL), Ernie Clement (TOR), Nick Madrigal (LAA), Josh Jung (TEX), and Jared Young (NYM).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.