Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, June 17, 2026)?

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Anthony Kay. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, June 17, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Paul Goldschmidt (100), Liam Hicks (81), Yandy Díaz (78), Samad Taylor (77), Pete Crow-Armstrong (77). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, June 17, 2026?

Yes — Paul Goldschmidt got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .347 against lefties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year. Nico Hoerner (CHC) — righty bat vs LHP, .261 against lefties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year. Dominic Canzone (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .267 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Andrew Painter has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA). LHP Nick Lodolo has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Carson Benge (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM). RHP George Kirby has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL). RHP Peter Lambert has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Dillon Dingler (DET), Spencer Torkelson (DET), and Riley Greene (DET).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Every hitter on the Wednesday, June 17, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 65%

Top 10

9/1090%

season 68%

Full slate

178/25271%

season 57%

Top call Paul Goldschmidt came through. Otto Lopez didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 9–1

NYMaway

CINhomeTop matchup74 Final · 6–2

KCaway

WSHhomeTop matchup65 Final · 12–4

MIAaway

PHIhomeTop matchup81 Final · 2–4

DETaway

HOUhomeTop matchup74 Final · 6–1

SDaway

STLhomeTop matchup77 Final · 4–5

TBaway

LADhomeTop matchup78 Final · 1–8

LAAaway

AZhomeTop matchup66 Final · 3–0

TORaway

BOShomeTop matchup67 Final · 5–10

CWSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–5

SFaway

ATLhomeTop matchup69 Final · 4–9

CLEaway

MILhomeTop matchup66 Final · 6–8

COLaway

CHChomeTop matchup77 Final · 5–3

BALaway

SEAhomeTop matchup72 Final · 12–4

PITaway

ATHhomeTop matchup62

Not starting61 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 313 shownScore

180 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Carter JensenC
KC@WSH· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T1
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@PHI· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
3
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@STL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T3
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsMIA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T3
Juan SotoLF
NYM@CIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T3
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsSF· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T3
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@CIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T3
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@ATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T3
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@STL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #79
T3
Blaze Alexander3B
BAL@SEA· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T3
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsSF· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T3
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsCWS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T3
Sterlin ThompsonRF
COL@CHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T3
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@CIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T3
Esteury RuizRF
MIA@PHI· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T3
Edgar QueroC
CWS@NYY· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T3
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsLAA· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
18
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYYvsCWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.4 H, #1
T18
Yandy DíazDH
TB@LAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T18
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsBAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T18
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsSF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #16
T18
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T18
Luis Arraez2B
SF@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T18
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T18
Spencer Horwitz1B
PIT@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T18
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@NYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T18
Andy PagesCF
LADvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T18
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T18
Christian YelichDH
MILvsCLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T18
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsCOL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T18
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #81
T18
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T18
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T18
Carson KellyC
CHCvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T18
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsTOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T18
Rafael Devers1B
SF@ATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T18
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T18
Zach NetoSS
LAA@AZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T18
Matt ShawRF
CHCvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T18
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@SEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T18
Joe MackC
MIA@PHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T18
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T18
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T18
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T18
Cooper PrattSS
MILvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T18
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsPIT· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #164
T18
Ali SánchezC
NYYvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T18
Marcell OzunaDH
PIT@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T18
Sal FrelickRF
MILvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T18
Casey SchmittLF
SF@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T18
Ian HappLF
CHCvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T18
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T18
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T18
Tommy TroyLF
AZvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T18
Kyle Karros3B
COL@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T18
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T18
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsKC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T18
Jordan LawlarLF
AZvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T18
John RaveRF
KC@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T18
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
61
Liam HicksC
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T61
Samad TaylorLF
SD@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T61
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T61
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T61
Dillon DinglerC
DET@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T61
Carson BengeRF
NYM@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T61
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T61
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsSF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T61
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsTOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T61
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T61
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T61
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T61
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T61
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T61
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T61
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T61
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T61
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T61
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T61
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T61
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsLAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T61
Michael Massey2B
KC@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T61
Miguel Rojas2B
LADvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T61
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T61
Taylor WardDH
BAL@SEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T61
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T61
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@ATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T61
Junior Caminero3B
TB@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T61
Amed Rosario3B
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T61
Jake MangumCF
PIT@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T61
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T61
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T61
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T61
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T61
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@CHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T61
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T61
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T61
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T61
Jacob WilsonSS
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #74
T61
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLE@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #77
T61
Cole Young2B
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #78
T61
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #83
T61
William ContrerasC
MILvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T61
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T61
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T61
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T61
Eli WhiteRF
ATLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T61
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T61
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T61
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T61
Alex CallLF
LADvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T61
Will WagnerDH
SD@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T61
Brice Turang2B
MILvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T61
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T61
Mike TroutCF
LAA@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T61
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
BOSvsTOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T61
Jesús SánchezRF
TOR@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T61
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T61
Lane ThomasLF
KC@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T61
Daniel SchneemannCF
CLE@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T61
Mark Vientos1B
NYM@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T61
Manny Machado3B
SD@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T61
Myles StrawCF
TOR@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T61
Oswald Peraza2B
LAA@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T61
Rodolfo DuránC
SD@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T61
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T61
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T61
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T61
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T61
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T61
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T61
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T61
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T61
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T61
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T61
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOSvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T61
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T61
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CINvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T61
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T61
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #165
T61
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T61
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T61
Richie Palacios2B
TB@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T61
Anthony VolpeSS
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T61
Willy AdamesSS
SF@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T61
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T61
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T61
Connor JoeRF
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T61
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T61
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsSD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T61
Kerry CarpenterRF
DET@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T61
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T61
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T61
Alex Freeland2B
LADvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T61
José TenaDH
WSHvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T61
Dalton RushingC
LADvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T61
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T61
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T61
Davis SchneiderLF
TOR@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T61
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsTOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T61
Salvador PerezDH
KC@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T61
Miles Mastrobuoni3B
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T61
Hunter FeducciaC
TB@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T61
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T61
Noelvi MarteRF
CINvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T61
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T61
Eric HaaseC
SF@ATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T61
Logan PorterC
LAA@AZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T61
Luis TorrensC
NYM@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T61
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T61
Joey LoperfidoLF
HOUvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T61
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsDET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T61
Henry DavisC
PIT@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T61
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #243
T61
David Hamilton3B
MILvsCLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #247
T61
Jose TrevinoC
CINvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #250
T61
Matt McLain2B
CINvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #251
T61
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #252
T61
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsCLE· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T61
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@BOS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) is the top hits matchup on the Wednesday, June 17, 2026 board at 100, with Liam Hicks (MIA) and Yandy Díaz (TB) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Anthony Kay. The righty is hitting .347 H/PA against lefties this year — and .600 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 31% of his trips. And Anthony Kay has been giving up plenty to lefties lately — .250 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Anthony Kay. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Liam Hicks (MIA) (81) vs RHP Andrew Painter: a strong bat at .254 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.340), hot bat.
Yandy Díaz (TB) (78) vs RHP Shohei Ohtani: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Samad Taylor (SD) (77) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a strong bat at .262 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400), hot bat.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (77) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a strong bat at .250 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Nico Hoerner (CHC) (75) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a strong bat at .257 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Otto Lopez (MIA) (74) vs RHP Andrew Painter: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
Dillon Dingler (DET) (74) vs RHP Peter Lambert: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.294).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Andrew Painter has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
LHP Nick Lodolo has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Carson Benge (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM).
RHP George Kirby has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
RHP Peter Lambert has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Dillon Dingler (DET), Spencer Torkelson (DET), and Riley Greene (DET).

Platoon edges to target

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .347 against lefties this year.
Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year.
Nico Hoerner (CHC) — righty bat vs LHP, .261 against lefties this year.
Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.
Dominic Canzone (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .267 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Liam Hicks (MIA), Samad Taylor (SD), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Alec Burleson (STL), and Dominic Canzone (SEA). Cold but due to bounce back: Nico Hoerner (CHC), Ozzie Albies (ATL), Iván Herrera (STL), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and Trea Turner (PHI).

How it played out

9 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Paul Goldschmidt finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, June 17, 2026)?: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Anthony Kay. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, June 17, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Paul Goldschmidt (100), Liam Hicks (81), Yandy Díaz (78), Samad Taylor (77), Pete Crow-Armstrong (77). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, June 17, 2026?: Yes — Paul Goldschmidt got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .347 against lefties this year. Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year. Nico Hoerner (CHC) — righty bat vs LHP, .261 against lefties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year. Dominic Canzone (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .267 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Andrew Painter has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA). LHP Nick Lodolo has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Carson Benge (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM). RHP George Kirby has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL). RHP Peter Lambert has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Dillon Dingler (DET), Spencer Torkelson (DET), and Riley Greene (DET).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Liam Hicks (MIA), Samad Taylor (SD), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Alec Burleson (STL), and Dominic Canzone (SEA). Cold but due to bounce back: Nico Hoerner (CHC), Ozzie Albies (ATL), Iván Herrera (STL), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and Trea Turner (PHI).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.