Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Top hits spot: Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Anthony Kay. The righty is hitting .347 H/PA against lefties this year — and .600 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 31% of his trips. And Anthony Kay has been giving up plenty to lefties lately — .250 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Anthony Kay. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (81) vs RHP Andrew Painter: a strong bat at .254 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.340), hot bat.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (78) vs RHP Shohei Ohtani: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Samad Taylor (SD) (77) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a strong bat at .262 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400), hot bat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (77) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a strong bat at .250 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Nico Hoerner (CHC) (75) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a strong bat at .257 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (74) vs RHP Andrew Painter: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (74) vs RHP Peter Lambert: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.294).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Andrew Painter has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
- LHP Nick Lodolo has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Carson Benge (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM).
- RHP George Kirby has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
- RHP Peter Lambert has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Dillon Dingler (DET), Spencer Torkelson (DET), and Riley Greene (DET).
Platoon edges to target
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .347 against lefties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year.
- Nico Hoerner (CHC) — righty bat vs LHP, .261 against lefties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .267 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Liam Hicks (MIA), Samad Taylor (SD), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Alec Burleson (STL), and Dominic Canzone (SEA). Cold but due to bounce back: Nico Hoerner (CHC), Ozzie Albies (ATL), Iván Herrera (STL), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and Trea Turner (PHI).
How it played out
9 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Paul Goldschmidt finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.