Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, June 20, 2026
Top hits spot: Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Paul Skenes. The lefty is hitting .241 H/PA against righties this year — and .304 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Paul Skenes has been tough on righties lately — .206 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Paul Skenes too — .500 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (100) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at .253 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308).
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (99) vs RHP Colin Rea: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.345), hot bat.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) (99) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .242 into an arm tough on the same side (.207), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (95) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .229 into an arm tough on the same side (.207), hitter's park.
- Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) (94) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .258 into an arm tough on the same side (.207), hitter's park.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) (93) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm tough on the same side (.207), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (91) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at .259 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Patrick Corbin has been vulnerable to lefties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nico Hoerner (CHC), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).
- RHP Colin Rea has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Brandon Valenzuela (TOR), and George Springer (TOR).
- RHP Trevor McDonald has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jakob Marsee (MIA), Kyle Stowers (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
- RHP Zac Gallen has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Kody Clemens (MIN), and Josh Bell (MIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .316 against righties this year.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .214 against righties this year.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Nathan Lukes (TOR), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), Jake Mangum (PIT), Josh Bell (MIN), and Ketel Marte (AZ). Cold but due to bounce back: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Cal Raleigh (SEA), Tyler Callihan (PIT), James Wood (WSH), and Cody Bellinger (NYY).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jake McCarthy finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.