Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, June 20, 2026)?

Jake McCarthy (COL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Paul Skenes. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, June 20, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Saturday, June 20, 2026: Jake McCarthy (100), Trevor Larnach (100), Nathan Lukes (99), Bryan Reynolds (99), Spencer Horwitz (95). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, June 20, 2026?

Yes — Jake McCarthy got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year. Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .316 against righties this year. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .214 against righties this year. Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Patrick Corbin has been vulnerable to lefties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nico Hoerner (CHC), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC). RHP Colin Rea has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Brandon Valenzuela (TOR), and George Springer (TOR). RHP Trevor McDonald has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jakob Marsee (MIA), Kyle Stowers (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA). RHP Zac Gallen has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Kody Clemens (MIN), and Josh Bell (MIN).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Saturday, June 20, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, June 20, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, June 20, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 65%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 67%

Full slate

148/25259%

season 57%

Top call Jake McCarthy came through. Nathan Lukes didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–4

CWSaway

DEThomeTop matchup77 Final · 10–2

CINaway

NYYhomeTop matchup79 Final · 8–6

TORaway

CHChomeTop matchup99 Final · 6–4

SDaway

TEXhomeTop matchup71 Final · 4–3

WSHaway

TBhomeTop matchup90 Final · 3–6

SFaway

MIAhomeTop matchup79 Final · 3–4

MILaway

ATLhomeTop matchup88 Final · 8–1

CLEaway

HOUhomeTop matchup81 Final · 3–15

NYMaway

PHIhomeTop matchup82 Final · 1–2

PITaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–0

LAAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup83 Final · 5–1

BOSaway

SEAhomeTop matchup86 Final · 16–8

MINaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–2

BALaway

LADhomeTop matchup82

Not starting66 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 318 shownScore

154 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsNYM· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #77
T1
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsNYM· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T1
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@HOU· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T1
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@AZ· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T1
Edwin Arroyo2B
CIN@NYY· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
6
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsMIL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T6
Donovan Walton2B
LAA@ATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T6
Jo AdellRF
LAA@ATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T6
Victor CaratiniC
MIN@AZ· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T6
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsWSH· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T6
Casey SchmittLF
SF@MIA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T6
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@TEX· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T6
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@AZ· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T6
Ryan KreidlerSS
MIN@AZ· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T6
Drew GilbertCF
SF@MIA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #245
T6
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@HOU· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
17
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T17
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@AZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T17
Spencer Horwitz1B
PIT@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T17
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T17
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T17
Josh BellDH
MIN@AZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T17
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@DET· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T17
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T17
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T17
William ContrerasC
MIL@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T17
Blake DunnCF
CIN@NYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T17
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T17
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsSD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T17
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsSD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T17
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T17
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@MIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T17
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsNYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T17
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T17
Pavin Smith1B
AZvsMIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T17
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CIN@NYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T17
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T17
Mark Vientos1B
NYM@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T17
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T17
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T17
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYYvsCIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T17
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T17
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T17
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLE@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T17
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T17
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T17
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsNYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #167
T17
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #168
T17
Jorge BarrosaCF
AZvsMIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T17
Manny Machado3B
SD@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T17
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T17
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T17
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T17
Tyler HeinemanC
LAA@ATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T17
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsTOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T17
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T17
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@SEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T17
Tommy TroyLF
AZvsMIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #250
59
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T59
Jake MangumCF
PIT@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T59
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@AZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #8
T59
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T59
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T59
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T59
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T59
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T59
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T59
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #21
T59
Carson BengeRF
NYM@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #23
T59
Luis Arraez2B
SF@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #25
T59
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T59
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #27
T59
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T59
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T59
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T59
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T59
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TOR@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T59
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T59
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T59
James WoodRF
WSH@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T59
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T59
Samad TaylorLF
SD@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T59
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsPIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T59
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T59
Juan SotoLF
NYM@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T59
JJ BledayLF
CIN@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T59
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T59
Curtis Mead3B
WSH@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T59
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T59
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T59
George SpringerDH
TOR@CHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T59
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsSF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T59
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T59
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsPIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T59
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T59
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T59
Jacob WilsonSS
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T59
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T59
Taylor WardDH
BAL@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T59
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T59
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsWSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T59
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@AZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T59
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T59
Zach NetoSS
LAA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T59
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T59
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T59
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T59
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T59
Blake PerkinsCF
MIL@ATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T59
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #140
T59
Adrian Del CastilloDH
AZvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #143
T59
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T59
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #145
T59
Daulton VarshoCF
TOR@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T59
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T59
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T59
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T59
Matt ShawRF
CHCvsTOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T59
Joe MackC
MIAvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T59
Blaze Alexander3B
BAL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T59
Jake RogersC
DETvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T59
Keibert RuizC
WSH@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #164
T59
Luis TorrensC
NYM@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #169
T59
Anthony VolpeSS
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T59
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T59
Jarred KelenicRF
TEXvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T59
Sterlin ThompsonRF
COLvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T59
Spencer Steer1B
CIN@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T59
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T59
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T59
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T59
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T59
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsSF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T59
Zack ShortSS
NYM@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T59
Ali SánchezC
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T59
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T59
Ian HappLF
CHCvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T59
Eli WhiteRF
ATLvsMIL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T59
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T59
Jose SiriCF
LAA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T59
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T59
Matt McLain2B
CIN@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T59
Myles StrawCF
TOR@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T59
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T59
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #233
T59
Marcelo Mayer2B
BOS@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #234
T59
Colton CowserCF
BAL@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #239
T59
Petey HalpinCF
CLE@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #241
T59
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@DET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T59
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@CHC· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T59
J.C. EscarraC
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T59
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T59
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSH@TB· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T59
Joey LoperfidoLF
HOUvsCLE· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, June 20, 2026

Jake McCarthy (COL) is the top hits matchup on the Saturday, June 20, 2026 board at 100, with Trevor Larnach (MIN) and Nathan Lukes (TOR) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Jake McCarthy

Jake McCarthy (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Paul Skenes. The lefty is hitting .241 H/PA against righties this year — and .304 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Paul Skenes has been tough on righties lately — .206 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Paul Skenes too — .500 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park.

The rest of the top of the board

Trevor Larnach (MIN) (100) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at .253 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308).
Nathan Lukes (TOR) (99) vs RHP Colin Rea: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.345), hot bat.
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) (99) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .242 into an arm tough on the same side (.207), hitter's park, hot bat.
Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (95) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .229 into an arm tough on the same side (.207), hitter's park.
Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) (94) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .258 into an arm tough on the same side (.207), hitter's park.
Jake Mangum (PIT) (93) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm tough on the same side (.207), hitter's park, hot bat.
Kody Clemens (MIN) (91) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a strong bat at .259 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Patrick Corbin has been vulnerable to lefties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nico Hoerner (CHC), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).
RHP Colin Rea has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Brandon Valenzuela (TOR), and George Springer (TOR).
RHP Trevor McDonald has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jakob Marsee (MIA), Kyle Stowers (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
RHP Zac Gallen has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Kody Clemens (MIN), and Josh Bell (MIN).

Platoon edges to target

Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year.
Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .316 against righties this year.
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .214 against righties this year.
Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Nathan Lukes (TOR), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), Jake Mangum (PIT), Josh Bell (MIN), and Ketel Marte (AZ). Cold but due to bounce back: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Cal Raleigh (SEA), Tyler Callihan (PIT), James Wood (WSH), and Cody Bellinger (NYY).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jake McCarthy finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, June 20, 2026)?: Jake McCarthy (COL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Paul Skenes. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, June 20, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Saturday, June 20, 2026: Jake McCarthy (100), Trevor Larnach (100), Nathan Lukes (99), Bryan Reynolds (99), Spencer Horwitz (95). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, June 20, 2026?: Yes — Jake McCarthy got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year. Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .316 against righties this year. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .214 against righties this year. Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Patrick Corbin has been vulnerable to lefties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nico Hoerner (CHC), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC). RHP Colin Rea has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Brandon Valenzuela (TOR), and George Springer (TOR). RHP Trevor McDonald has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jakob Marsee (MIA), Kyle Stowers (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA). RHP Zac Gallen has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Kody Clemens (MIN), and Josh Bell (MIN).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Nathan Lukes (TOR), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), Jake Mangum (PIT), Josh Bell (MIN), and Ketel Marte (AZ). Cold but due to bounce back: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Cal Raleigh (SEA), Tyler Callihan (PIT), James Wood (WSH), and Cody Bellinger (NYY).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.