Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, June 21, 2026)?

J.P. Crawford (SEA) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Payton Tolle. A league-average bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, June 21, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Sunday, June 21, 2026: J.P. Crawford (100), Kyle Schwarber (100), Jake McCarthy (100), Wade Meckler (100), Josh Naylor (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, June 21, 2026?

Yes — J.P. Crawford got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year. Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year. Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .170 against lefties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .262 against righties this year. Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Jared Jones has been getting tattooed by righties — .298 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Willi Castro (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL). LHP Andrew Alvarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Jonny DeLuca (TB). RHP Elmer Rodríguez has been vulnerable to righties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Blake Dunn (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN). RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ryan O'Hearn (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, June 21, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, June 21, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 65%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 67%

Full slate

158/25063%

season 57%

Top call J.P. Crawford came through. Wade Meckler didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 9–4

MILaway

ATLhomeTop matchup68 Final · 4–1

CINaway

NYYhomeTop matchup62 Final · 3–4

WSHaway

TBhomeTop matchup56 Final · 1–2

SFaway

MIAhomeTop matchup77 Final · 4–5

CWSaway

DEThomeTop matchup64 Final · 1–2

CLEaway

HOUhomeTop matchup68 Final · 12–10

STLaway

KChomeTop matchup74 Final · 3–4

SDaway

TEXhomeTop matchup68 Final · 8–6

PITaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–2

MINaway

AZhomeTop matchup76 Final · 9–7

LAAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 12–1

BALaway

LADhomeTop matchup92 Final · 1–3

BOSaway

SEAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–6

NYMaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100

Not starting64 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 314 shownScore

163 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
William ContrerasC
MIL@ATL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
2
Alec Burleson1B
STL@KC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #27
T2
Jake MangumCF
PIT@COL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #33
T2
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsNYM· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #45
T2
Blaze Alexander3B
BAL@LAD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #49
T2
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@KC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T2
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsMIL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #90
T2
Iván HerreraDH
STL@KC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T2
Michael Massey2B
KCvsSTL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T2
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsCLE· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T2
Ryan KreidlerSS
MIN@AZ· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T2
Colton CowserCF
BAL@LAD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
13
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #3
T13
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T13
Spencer Horwitz1B
PIT@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T13
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@LAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T13
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T13
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #23
T13
Taylor WardDH
BAL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T13
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@ATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T13
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsLAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #32
T13
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@ATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #34
T13
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsCWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T13
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsSD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T13
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T13
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@AZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T13
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsMIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T13
Blake DunnCF
CIN@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T13
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #63
T13
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T13
Casey SchmittLF
SF@MIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T13
Carter JensenC
KCvsSTL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #74
T13
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@LAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T13
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #78
T13
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsWSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #81
T13
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T13
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T13
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsSTL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T13
Lars NootbaarLF
STL@KC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T13
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsCIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T13
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T13
Jose SiriCF
LAA@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #140
T13
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T13
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@ATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T13
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@DET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T13
Masyn WinnSS
STL@KC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T13
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsSD· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #162
T13
Sal FrelickRF
MIL@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #171
T13
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T13
Alex JacksonC
MIN@AZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T13
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T13
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@TB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T13
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@TEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T13
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@SEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T13
David Hamilton3B
MIL@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #234
T13
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsCWS· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #236
57
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T57
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #2
T57
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #6
T57
Andy PagesCF
LADvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #8
T57
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T57
Willi Castro2B
COLvsPIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T57
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T57
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T57
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T57
Donovan Walton2B
LAA@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T57
Carson BengeRF
NYM@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T57
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #20
T57
Luis Arraez2B
SF@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #21
T57
Edmundo SosaLF
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T57
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsBAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T57
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T57
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T57
Zach NetoSS
LAA@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #35
T57
Juan SotoLF
NYM@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #36
T57
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsCLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T57
Samad TaylorLF
SD@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T57
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T57
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T57
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #44
T57
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T57
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #47
T57
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T57
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsPIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T57
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T57
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T57
Tyler CallihanLF
PIT@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T57
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T57
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T57
Rob RefsnyderDH
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T57
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T57
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #82
T57
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #83
T57
Edouard Julien2B
COLvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #85
T57
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsSF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #86
T57
Brice Turang2B
MIL@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #87
T57
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #91
T57
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #92
T57
Jared Young1B
NYM@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T57
Max Muncy3B
LADvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T57
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLE@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T57
Logan O'HoppeC
LAA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T57
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T57
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T57
Mickey GasperC
BOS@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T57
Cole Young2B
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T57
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T57
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BAL@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T57
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T57
Ryan ViladeRF
TBvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T57
Daylen LileLF
WSH@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T57
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T57
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T57
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T57
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T57
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T57
Derek HillCF
PHIvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T57
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T57
Colt Keith3B
DETvsCWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T57
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T57
Kameron MisnerCF
KCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T57
Ben Williamson2B
TBvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T57
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T57
Weston Wilson3B
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T57
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T57
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #165
T57
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #167
T57
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T57
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T57
Nate EatonOF
BOS@SEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T57
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T57
Sung-Mun Song2B
SD@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T57
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T57
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T57
Jimmy CrooksC
STL@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T57
Manny Machado3B
SD@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T57
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T57
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T57
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T57
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@KC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T57
Edgar QueroC
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T57
Lane ThomasLF
KCvsSTL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T57
Christian Moore2B
LAA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T57
Spencer Steer1B
CIN@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T57
Raynel Delgado2B
HOUvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T57
Joey Meneses1B
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #217
T57
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T57
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T57
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWS@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T57
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T57
Petey HalpinCF
CLE@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T57
Drew GilbertCF
SF@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T57
Esteury RuizRF
MIAvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T57
Ty France1B
SD@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #240
T57
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #241
T57
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsSTL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #242
T57
Luis TorrensC
NYM@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #245
T57
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #246
T57
Amed Rosario3B
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T57
Josh BellDH
MIN@AZ· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T57
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@TEX· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T57
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsCWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T57
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026

J.P. Crawford (SEA) is the top hits matchup on the Sunday, June 21, 2026 board at 100, with Kyle Schwarber (PHI) and Jake McCarthy (COL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: J.P. Crawford

J.P. Crawford (SEA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Payton Tolle. The lefty is hitting .164 H/PA against lefties this year — and .333 over the last two weeks, a league-average bat that turns into a hit in about 22% of his trips. And Payton Tolle has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .308 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Payton Tolle. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (100) vs LHP David Peterson: a solid bat at .244 into an arm tough on the same side (.182).
Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .252 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.367), hitter's park, hot bat.
Wade Meckler (LAA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .257 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.290).
Josh Naylor (SEA) (97) vs LHP Payton Tolle: a strong bat at .266 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308).
Trea Turner (PHI) (94) vs LHP David Peterson: a league-average bat at .221 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.318).
Bo Bichette (NYM) (93) vs RHP Zack Wheeler: a strong bat at .267 into an arm tough on the same side (.086).
Andy Pages (LAD) (92) vs RHP Brandon Young: a solid bat at .246 into an arm tough on the same side (.188).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Jared Jones has been getting tattooed by righties — .298 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Willi Castro (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
LHP Andrew Alvarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Jonny DeLuca (TB).
RHP Elmer Rodríguez has been vulnerable to righties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Blake Dunn (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN).
RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ryan O'Hearn (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).

Platoon edges to target

Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year.
Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year.
Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .170 against lefties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .262 against righties this year.
Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Brandon Lowe (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), Donovan Walton (LAA), Trevor Larnach (MIN), and Zack Gelof (ATH). Cold but due to bounce back: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Ryan O'Hearn (PIT), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Drake Baldwin (ATL).

How it played out

6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play J.P. Crawford finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, June 21, 2026)?: J.P. Crawford (SEA) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Payton Tolle. A league-average bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, June 21, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Sunday, June 21, 2026: J.P. Crawford (100), Kyle Schwarber (100), Jake McCarthy (100), Wade Meckler (100), Josh Naylor (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, June 21, 2026?: Yes — J.P. Crawford got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year. Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year. Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .170 against lefties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .262 against righties this year. Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Jared Jones has been getting tattooed by righties — .298 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Willi Castro (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL). LHP Andrew Alvarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Jonny DeLuca (TB). RHP Elmer Rodríguez has been vulnerable to righties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Blake Dunn (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN). RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ryan O'Hearn (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Brandon Lowe (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), Donovan Walton (LAA), Trevor Larnach (MIN), and Zack Gelof (ATH). Cold but due to bounce back: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Ryan O'Hearn (PIT), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Drake Baldwin (ATL).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.