Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026
Top hits spot: J.P. Crawford
J.P. Crawford (SEA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Payton Tolle. The lefty is hitting .164 H/PA against lefties this year — and .333 over the last two weeks, a league-average bat that turns into a hit in about 22% of his trips. And Payton Tolle has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .308 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Payton Tolle. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (100) vs LHP David Peterson: a solid bat at .244 into an arm tough on the same side (.182).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .252 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.367), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Wade Meckler (LAA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .257 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.290).
- Josh Naylor (SEA) (97) vs LHP Payton Tolle: a strong bat at .266 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (94) vs LHP David Peterson: a league-average bat at .221 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.318).
- Bo Bichette (NYM) (93) vs RHP Zack Wheeler: a strong bat at .267 into an arm tough on the same side (.086).
- Andy Pages (LAD) (92) vs RHP Brandon Young: a solid bat at .246 into an arm tough on the same side (.188).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Jared Jones has been getting tattooed by righties — .298 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Willi Castro (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
- LHP Andrew Alvarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Jonny DeLuca (TB).
- RHP Elmer Rodríguez has been vulnerable to righties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Blake Dunn (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ryan O'Hearn (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
Platoon edges to target
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year.
- Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year.
- Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .170 against lefties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .262 against righties this year.
- Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Brandon Lowe (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), Donovan Walton (LAA), Trevor Larnach (MIN), and Zack Gelof (ATH). Cold but due to bounce back: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Ryan O'Hearn (PIT), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Drake Baldwin (ATL).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play J.P. Crawford finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.