MatchWiz

Best MLB fantasy points matchupsThursday, July 23, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, July 23, 2026 slate — ranked by projected DraftKings fantasy points. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

PROJ10 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Projected DK Points19.5 pts

Innings5.3
Strikeouts7.1
Win probability41%
Earned runs1.8
Hits / Walks4.5 / 1.4

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Chris Sale's full player page →

Projected DK Points19.2 pts

Innings6
Strikeouts6.4
Win probability43%
Earned runs2
Hits / Walks4 / 2.1

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Troy Melton's full player page →

Projected DK Points17.2 pts

Innings5.3
Strikeouts6.8
Win probability36%
Earned runs2.5
Hits / Walks4.3 / 2.1

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Gavin Williams's full player page →

Projected DK Points15.3 pts

Innings5.8
Strikeouts6
Win probability37%
Earned runs2.8
Hits / Walks5.1 / 2.6

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

Projected DK Points13.6 pts

Innings5.9
Strikeouts4.1
Win probability41%
Earned runs2.2
Hits / Walks5.2 / 1.7

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Michael McGreevy's full player page →

Projected DK Points12.9 pts

Innings4.6
Strikeouts5.5
Win probability31%
Earned runs2.7
Hits / Walks4 / 1.6

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Ian Seymour's full player page →

Projected DK Points12.3 pts

Innings4.8
Strikeouts4.5
Win probability37%
Earned runs2
Hits / Walks4.6 / 2.3

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Shane Bieber's full player page →

Projected DK Points10.5 pts

Innings4.8
Strikeouts3.7
Win probability36%
Earned runs2.1
Hits / Walks4.5 / 2.2

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Randy Dobnak's full player page →

Projected DK Points9.0 pts

Innings4.1
Strikeouts4.5
Win probability28%
Earned runs2.8
Hits / Walks4.8 / 2.4

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Griffin Canning's full player page →

Projected DK Points8.4 pts

Innings3.5
Strikeouts3.3
Win probability31%
Earned runs1.9
Hits / Walks4 / 0.9

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

What the fantasy points board is

The Fantasy Points board projects a starter's projected DraftKings fantasy points. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His strikeout, outs, earned-run, hits and walks projections, composed via the DK pitcher formula.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Composed from the tuned pitcher boards, so it inherits their sharpness. A DFS tool, not a book market.

How to use it

The pitcher side of the DFS build — sort by value, then lock a top arm in the optimizer.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.