MatchWiz

Best MLB fantasy points matchupsWednesday, July 22, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, July 22, 2026 slate — ranked by projected DraftKings fantasy points. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

PROJ33 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Projected DK Points16.7 pts

Innings5.7
Strikeouts5.7
Win probability41%
Earned runs2
Hits / Walks4.5 / 2.6

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Peter Lambert's full player page →

Projected DK Points16.6 pts

Innings6.2
Strikeouts5.6
Win probability40%
Earned runs2.5
Hits / Walks5 / 1.8

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Max Fried's full player page →

Projected DK Points15.5 pts

Innings5.8
Strikeouts5.7
Win probability38%
Earned runs2.5
Hits / Walks4.9 / 2.3

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Projected DK Points15.5 pts

Innings6.2
Strikeouts5
Win probability41%
Earned runs2.4
Hits / Walks5.5 / 1.5

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Merrill Kelly's full player page →

Projected DK Points15.4 pts

Innings5.7
Strikeouts5.9
Win probability37%
Earned runs2.8
Hits / Walks5.1 / 2.1

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Reid Detmers's full player page →

Projected DK Points15.4 pts

Innings6
Strikeouts5.6
Win probability38%
Earned runs2.8
Hits / Walks4.9 / 2

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Jake Bennett's full player page →

Projected DK Points15.3 pts

Innings5.3
Strikeouts5.9
Win probability36%
Earned runs2.5
Hits / Walks4.9 / 1.5

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Gerrit Cole's full player page →

Projected DK Points15.3 pts

Innings5.7
Strikeouts5.2
Win probability40%
Earned runs2.2
Hits / Walks4.9 / 2.2

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Landen Roupp's full player page →

Projected DK Points15.1 pts

Innings4.8
Strikeouts5.6
Win probability36%
Earned runs2.1
Hits / Walks3.8 / 1.5

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Logan Henderson's full player page →

Projected DK Points15.1 pts

Innings6.5
Strikeouts5.2
Win probability39%
Earned runs3
Hits / Walks5.5 / 2.1

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Sandy Alcantara's full player page →

Projected DK Points14.7 pts

Innings5.8
Strikeouts5.4
Win probability37%
Earned runs2.7
Hits / Walks5.6 / 1.6

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Gage Jump's full player page →

Projected DK Points14.4 pts

Innings5.6
Strikeouts5
Win probability39%
Earned runs2.3
Hits / Walks4.8 / 2.3

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Michael King's full player page →

Projected DK Points14.3 pts

Innings5.1
Strikeouts5.3
Win probability36%
Earned runs2.3
Hits / Walks4.4 / 1.5

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Emerson Hancock's full player page →

Projected DK Points14.3 pts

Innings5
Strikeouts5.8
Win probability34%
Earned runs2.5
Hits / Walks5.2 / 1.5

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Cade Cavalli's full player page →

Projected DK Points14.2 pts

Innings5
Strikeouts5.1
Win probability38%
Earned runs1.9
Hits / Walks4.1 / 2.6

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Christian Scott's full player page →

Projected DK Points14.1 pts

Innings5.6
Strikeouts5.1
Win probability37%
Earned runs2.6
Hits / Walks5 / 1.5

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Bailey Ober's full player page →

Projected DK Points13.5 pts

Innings5
Strikeouts5.5
Win probability33%
Earned runs2.7
Hits / Walks5 / 1.3

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Dean Kremer's full player page →

Projected DK Points13.4 pts

Innings5.6
Strikeouts4.5
Win probability38%
Earned runs2.5
Hits / Walks4.9 / 1.8

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Brady Singer's full player page →

Projected DK Points13.1 pts

Innings4.6
Strikeouts5.1
Win probability35%
Earned runs2.1
Hits / Walks4.4 / 1.8

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Hunter Dobbins's full player page →

Projected DK Points12.3 pts

Innings5.4
Strikeouts4.1
Win probability37%
Earned runs2.4
Hits / Walks4.9 / 1.6

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Eric Lauer's full player page →

Projected DK Points12.3 pts

Innings5.1
Strikeouts5.6
Win probability32%
Earned runs3.1
Hits / Walks5.7 / 2.6

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Aaron Nola's full player page →

Projected DK Points11.5 pts

Innings5.1
Strikeouts4.6
Win probability32%
Earned runs3
Hits / Walks4.7 / 1.4

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Griffin Jax's full player page →

Projected DK Points11.3 pts

Innings4.9
Strikeouts3.7
Win probability37%
Earned runs2.1
Hits / Walks4 / 2.1

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Martín Pérez's full player page →

Projected DK Points11.2 pts

Innings5.2
Strikeouts4.2
Win probability34%
Earned runs2.7
Hits / Walks5.2 / 1.8

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Seth Lugo's full player page →

Projected DK Points11.1 pts

Innings5.2
Strikeouts4.3
Win probability33%
Earned runs2.9
Hits / Walks5.5 / 1.3

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Slade Cecconi's full player page →

Projected DK Points11.0 pts

Innings4.8
Strikeouts4.5
Win probability32%
Earned runs2.8
Hits / Walks4.8 / 1.7

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Gabriel Hughes's full player page →

Projected DK Points10.9 pts

Innings5.2
Strikeouts5
Win probability30%
Earned runs3.4
Hits / Walks4.7 / 3

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

Projected DK Points10.4 pts

Innings3.7
Strikeouts4.1
Win probability32%
Earned runs1.9
Hits / Walks3.6 / 1.2

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Keider Montero's full player page →

Projected DK Points10.1 pts

Innings5.1
Strikeouts4.2
Win probability31%
Earned runs3.2
Hits / Walks5.5 / 1.6

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Colin Rea's full player page →

Projected DK Points10.0 pts

Innings4.6
Strikeouts3.9
Win probability33%
Earned runs2.4
Hits / Walks4.5 / 1.9

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Anthony Kay's full player page →

Projected DK Points10.0 pts

Innings5.1
Strikeouts4.5
Win probability30%
Earned runs3.3
Hits / Walks5.4 / 2.1

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Mitch Keller's full player page →

Projected DK Points6.6 pts

Innings1.5
Strikeouts3.2
Win probability26%
Earned runs1
Hits / Walks2 / 0.9

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Braydon Fisher's full player page →

Projected DK Points6.3 pts

Innings1.4
Strikeouts3
Win probability26%
Earned runs1
Hits / Walks2 / 0.6

DraftKings scoring: IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6 — summed from each projected component.

Tyler Alexander's full player page →

What the fantasy points board is

The Fantasy Points board projects a starter's projected DraftKings fantasy points. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His strikeout, outs, earned-run, hits and walks projections, composed via the DK pitcher formula.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Composed from the tuned pitcher boards, so it inherits their sharpness. A DFS tool, not a book market.

How to use it

The pitcher side of the DFS build — sort by value, then lock a top arm in the optimizer.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.