Best MLB earned runs matchups — Wednesday, June 3, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, June 3, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.6 BF
Expected batters faced16.6
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Heriberto Hernández (R)11.7%2.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%2.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%2.0
4. Xavier Edwards (R)11.7%2.0
5. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%2.0
6. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%2.0
7. Owen Caissie (L)11.7%2.0
8. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%1.6
9. Joe Mack (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+130
DKDraftKings-130-102
We project 1.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
2. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%2.5
5. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%2.0
8. Adolis García (R)11.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.7 BF
Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)11.7%2.7
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%2.0
6. Austin Riley (R)11.7%2.0
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.7%2.0
8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)11.7%2.0
9. Sandy León (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Outman (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)11.7%3.0
3. Trevor Larnach (L)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)11.7%2.9
5. Austin Martin (R)11.7%2.0
6. Victor Caratini (L)11.7%2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%2.0
8. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.7%2.0
9. Orlando Arcia (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+115
DKDraftKings-141+106
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)11.7%2.9
5. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%2.0
6. José Fermín (R)11.7%2.0
7. Nolan Gorman (L)11.7%2.0
8. Thomas Saggese (R)11.7%2.0
9. Victor Scott II (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%3.0
2. Myles Straw (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
4. Jesús Sánchez (L)11.7%3.0
5. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%2.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%2.0
7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jonah Cox (R)11.7%3.0
2. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%3.0
3. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willy Adames (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.7%2.0
6. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%2.0
8. Daniel Susac (R)11.7%2.0
9. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Miguel Rojas (R)11.7%3.0
5. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%2.3
6. Santiago Espinal (R)11.7%2.0
7. Will Smith (R)11.7%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
DKDraftKings-125-106
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Tyler Tolbert (R)11.7%2.5
6. Isaac Collins (L)11.7%2.0
7. Michael Massey (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)11.7%2.0
9. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chad Stevens (R)11.7%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)11.7%3.0
4. Braxton Fulford (R)11.7%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%2.5
6. Willi Castro (L)11.7%2.0
7. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%2.0
9. Edouard Julien (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
DKDraftKings-157+118
FANFanatics-170+120
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jake Burger (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%2.7
6. Cody Freeman (R)11.7%2.0
7. Justin Foscue (R)11.7%2.0
8. Kyle Higashioka (R)11.7%2.0
9. Michael Helman (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.7%3.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.7%2.8
6. Angel Martínez (L)11.7%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.7%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
FANFanatics-170+120
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%3.0
2. Zach Cole (L)11.7%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.7%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)11.7%2.9
6. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%2.0
7. Brice Matthews (R)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Allen (R)11.7%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)11.7%3.0
6. Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%2.0
7. Tyler O'Neill (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.0
9. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%3.0
6. Mickey Gasper (L)11.7%2.0
7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.0
8. Marcelo Mayer (L)11.7%2.0
9. Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0
2. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
3. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (R)11.7%3.0
6. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.2
7. Michael Busch (L)11.7%2.0
8. Pedro Ramírez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Kevin Alcántara (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jo Adell (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wade Meckler (L)11.7%3.0
4. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.7%3.0
5. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%3.0
6. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.2
7. Nick Madrigal (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jose Siri (R)11.7%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-118
DKDraftKings-115-115
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%3.0
5. Brent Rooker (R)11.7%3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%2.4
7. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)11.7%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jacob Young (R)11.7%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%2.5
7. Keibert Ruiz (L)11.7%2.0
8. Luis García Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
9. José Tena (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-125
DKDraftKings-111-120
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%3.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%3.0
5. Pavin Smith (L)11.7%3.0
6. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%2.5
7. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jose Fernandez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
DKDraftKings-128-103
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%3.0
4. Dane Myers (R)11.7%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.7%3.0
6. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%2.8
7. Will Benson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
9. Noelvi Marte (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Junior Caminero (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%3.0
4. Yandy Díaz (R)11.7%3.0
5. Richie Palacios (L)11.7%3.0
6. Ben Williamson (R)11.7%2.8
7. Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.0
9. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
DKDraftKings-108-123
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%3.0
2. Luisangel Acuña (R)11.7%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)11.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
5. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.8
7. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%2.0
8. Drew Romo (L)11.7%2.0
9. Derek Hill (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+110-146
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)11.7%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)11.7%3.0
7. Rob Refsnyder (R)11.7%2.1
8. Jhonny Pereda (R)11.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+118-157
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.7%3.0
5. Brett Baty (L)11.7%3.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%3.0
7. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%2.2
8. MJ Melendez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
FANFanatics-180+125
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%3.0
4. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jake Mangum (L)11.7%3.0
6. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.7%3.0
7. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)11.7%2.3
8. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Endy Rodríguez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.6 BF
Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andrew Vaughn (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)11.7%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)11.7%3.0
6. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%3.0
7. Blake Perkins (L)11.7%2.6
8. Luis Rengifo (L)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Gleyber Torres (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%3.0
4. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.7%3.0
5. Riley Greene (L)11.7%3.0
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%3.0
7. Zack Short (R)11.7%2.7
8. Matt Vierling (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings-102-130
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.7 BF
Expected batters faced25.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
6. José Caballero (R)11.7%3.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)11.7%3.0
8. Austin Wells (L)11.7%2.7
9. Anthony Volpe (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload27.0 BF
Expected batters faced27.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Miguel Andujar (R)11.7%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
4. Freddy Fermin (R)11.7%3.0
5. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%3.0
6. Ty France (R)11.7%3.0
7. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0
8. Bryce Johnson (R)11.7%3.0
9. Samad Taylor (R)11.7%3.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 3.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
26 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Michael LorenzenP
COL@LAA· proj #17
8ERFinal
2
Nick MartinezP
TBvsDET· proj #28
6ERFinal
3
Patrick CorbinP
TOR@ATL· proj #3
4ERFinal
T3
MacKenzie GoreP
TEX@STL· proj #5
4ERFinal
T3
Zac GallenP
AZvsLAD· proj #8
4ERFinal
T3
Gerrit ColeP
NYYvsCLE· proj #12
4ERFinal
T3
Jeffrey SpringsP
ATH@CHC· proj #16
4ERFinal
T3
Taj BradleyP
MINvsCWS· proj #23
4ERFinal
T3
George KirbyP
SEAvsNYM· proj #25
4ERFinal
T3
Spencer ArrighettiP
HOUvsPIT· proj #26
4ERFinal
11
Walbert UreñaP
LAAvsCOL· proj #10
3ERFinal
T11
Chris BassittP
BAL@BOS· proj #15
3ERFinal
T11
Gavin WilliamsP
CLE@NYY· proj #29
3ERFinal
14
Grant HolmesP
ATLvsTOR· proj #6
2ERFinal
T14
Chase BurnsP
CINvsKC· proj #9
2ERFinal
T14
Colin ReaP
CHCvsATH· proj #18
2ERFinal
T14
Stephen KolekP
KC@CIN· proj #21
2ERFinal
T14
Troy MeltonP
DET@TB· proj #22
2ERFinal
19
Andrew AlvarezP
WSHvsMIA· proj #1
1ERFinal
T19
Walker BuehlerP
SD@PHI· proj #2
1ERFinal
T19
Robert GasserP
MILvsSF· proj #7
1ERFinal
T19
Andre PallanteP
STLvsTEX· proj #11
1ERFinal
T19
Paul SkenesP
PIT@HOU· proj #13
1ERFinal
T19
Max MeyerP
MIA@WSH· proj #19
1ERFinal
T19
Freddy PeraltaP
NYM@SEA· proj #24
1ERFinal
T19
Cristopher SánchezP
PHIvsSD· proj #30
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
1/333%
season 52%-19 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
3/560%
season 52%+8 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
6/1346%
season building
Top 50
9/2143%
season building
Full slate
9/2143%
season 49%-6 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 3, 2026
Andrew Alvarez (WSH) is the top earned runs spot on the Wednesday, June 3, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.9 ER, with Walker Buehler (SD) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Andrew Alvarez
Andrew Alvarez (WSH) tops the Wednesday, June 3, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.9 ER vs MIA. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Walker Buehler (SD) (54) — about 2.4 ER vs PHI.
Patrick Corbin (TOR) (51) — about 2.5 ER vs ATL.
Erick Fedde (CWS) (49) — about 2.5 ER vs MIN.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) (49) — about 2.5 ER vs STL.
Grant Holmes (ATL) (48) — about 2.5 ER vs TOR.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.2 ER. Andrew Alvarez finished with 1. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Wednesday, June 3, 2026)?
Andrew Alvarez (WSH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.9 ER against MIA.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Wednesday, June 3, 2026: Andrew Alvarez (~1.9 ER), Walker Buehler (~2.4 ER), Patrick Corbin (~2.5 ER), Erick Fedde (~2.5 ER), MacKenzie Gore (~2.5 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
