Best MLB earned runs matchups — Friday, June 5, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Friday, June 5, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload11.9 BF
Expected batters faced11.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%2.0
2. Brice Matthews (R)11.7%2.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.7%1.9
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%1.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)11.7%1.0
6. Cam Smith (R)11.7%1.0
7. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%1.0
8. Nick Allen (R)11.7%1.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
We project 1.3 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.6 BF
Expected batters faced16.6
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
2. Junior Caminero (R)11.7%2.0
3. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%2.0
4. Yandy Díaz (R)11.7%2.0
5. Richie Palacios (L)11.7%2.0
6. Ryan Vilade (R)11.7%2.0
7. Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)11.7%1.6
9. Taylor Walls (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-190+145
We project 1.9 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.7 BF
Expected batters faced17.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%2.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%2.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)11.7%2.0
4. Marcell Ozuna (R)11.7%2.0
5. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%2.0
6. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.7%2.0
7. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Endy Rodríguez (R)11.7%1.7
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
BOVBovada+130-170
DKDraftKings+127-170
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.7 BF
Expected batters faced19.7
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%2.7
3. Brice Turang (L)11.7%2.0
4. Gary Sánchez (R)11.7%2.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)11.7%2.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)11.7%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.7%2.0
8. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+116-154
We project 2.2 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.4 BF
Expected batters faced20.4
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gavin Sheets (L)11.7%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)11.7%2.4
4. Ty France (R)11.7%2.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%2.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%2.0
7. Bryce Johnson (L)11.7%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)11.7%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+140-180
DKDraftKings+125-166
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%2.2
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
6. Max Schuemann (R)11.7%2.0
7. Anthony Volpe (R)11.7%2.0
8. Amed Rosario (R)11.7%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-101-132
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)11.7%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%3.0
3. Chad Stevens (R)11.7%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%2.5
5. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%2.0
6. Willi Castro (L)11.7%2.0
7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%2.0
8. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-129-103
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%2.8
5. Jeremiah Jackson (R)11.7%2.0
6. Coby Mayo (R)11.7%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.0
8. Leody Taveras (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+112-148
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%3.0
4. David Fry (R)11.7%3.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.7%2.0
6. Stuart Fairchild (R)11.7%2.0
7. Angel Martínez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+108-143
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)11.7%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%2.4
6. Owen Caissie (L)11.7%2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
9. Esteury Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+110
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-166+125
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Bryan Torres (L)11.7%2.5
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%2.0
7. José Fermín (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jimmy Crooks (L)11.7%2.0
9. Victor Scott II (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+100
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-139+104
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)11.7%3.0
2. Corey Seager (L)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%2.5
6. Joc Pederson (L)11.7%2.0
7. Jake Burger (R)11.7%2.0
8. Kyle Higashioka (R)11.7%2.0
9. Evan Carter (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-185
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+117-155
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
2. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%3.0
5. Justin Crawford (L)11.7%2.6
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%2.0
7. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%2.0
8. Adolis García (R)11.7%2.0
9. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-146+110
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.7%3.0
5. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%2.6
6. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%2.0
7. Brett Baty (L)11.7%2.0
8. Mark Vientos (R)11.7%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-148+112
FANFanatics-170+120
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Conforto (L)11.7%3.0
2. Kevin Alcántara (R)11.7%3.0
3. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%3.0
5. Pedro Ramírez (R)11.7%2.7
6. Carson Kelly (R)11.7%2.0
7. Michael Busch (L)11.7%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)11.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
BOVBovada-105-135
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.6 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wade Meckler (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jo Adell (R)11.7%3.0
5. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.7
6. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%2.0
7. Nick Madrigal (R)11.7%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)11.7%2.0
9. Adam Frazier (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+120
BOVBovada-180+140
DKDraftKings-160+120
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Gleyber Torres (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%3.0
4. Matt Vierling (R)11.7%3.0
5. Riley Greene (L)11.7%2.8
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%2.0
7. Colt Keith (L)11.7%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%2.0
9. Zack Short (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+120
BOVBovada-170+130
DKDraftKings-175+131
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%3.0
2. Eric Haase (R)11.7%3.0
3. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%3.0
4. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.7%3.0
6. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%2.2
7. Buddy Kennedy (R)11.7%2.0
8. Daniel Susac (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jonah Cox (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+128-170
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%3.0
3. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%3.0
4. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%3.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.7%2.2
7. Noelvi Marte (R)11.7%2.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)11.7%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+112-148
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%3.0
2. Andrew Benintendi (L)11.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
5. Edgar Quero (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.3
7. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%2.0
8. Rikuu Nishida (L)11.7%2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
DKDraftKings-170+127
FANFanatics-170+120
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Starling Marte (R)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jac Caglianone (L)11.7%3.0
6. Isaac Collins (L)11.7%2.4
7. Michael Massey (L)11.7%2.0
8. Maikel Garcia (R)11.7%2.0
9. Kyle Isbel (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-110
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-125-106
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
4. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%3.0
5. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jesús Sánchez (L)11.7%2.5
7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-133+100
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Eli White (R)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)11.7%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%2.5
7. Austin Riley (R)11.7%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.7%2.0
9. Sandy León (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-119-111
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carlos Cortes (L)11.7%3.0
2. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
3. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
4. Brent Rooker (R)11.7%3.0
5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%3.0
6. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%2.5
7. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
8. Colby Thomas (R)11.7%2.0
9. Darell Hernaiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-116-115
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Patrick Wisdom (R)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
5. Dominic Canzone (L)11.7%3.0
6. Mitch Garver (R)11.7%2.6
7. Cole Young (L)11.7%2.0
8. Luke Raley (L)11.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+119-159
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%3.0
6. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.6
7. Marcelo Mayer (L)11.7%2.0
8. Mickey Gasper (R)11.7%2.0
9. Connor Wong (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-175
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+117-156
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ildemaro Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
2. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
3. Pavin Smith (L)11.7%3.0
4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)11.7%3.0
5. LuJames Groover (R)11.7%3.0
6. Geraldo Perdomo (R)11.7%2.8
7. Tommy Troy (R)11.7%2.0
8. Aramis Garcia (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jorge Barrosa (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-106-125
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0
5. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%3.0
6. Will Smith (R)11.7%2.9
7. Alex Call (R)11.7%2.0
8. Max Muncy (L)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
DKDraftKings-120-110
FANFanatics-135-105
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.8 BF
Expected batters faced24.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Tristan Gray (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)11.7%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)11.7%3.0
5. Orlando Arcia (R)11.7%3.0
6. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%3.0
7. Austin Martin (R)11.7%2.8
8. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-116-114
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.4 BF
Expected batters faced25.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Young (R)11.7%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%3.0
6. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.7%3.0
7. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%3.0
8. Drew Millas (L)11.7%2.4
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+105
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-125-106
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
25 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Edward CabreraP
CHCvsSF· proj #18
8ERFinal
2
Merrill KellyP
AZvsWSH· proj #30
7ERFinal
3
Trey YesavageP
TORvsBAL· proj #8
6ERFinal
T3
Anthony KayP
CWS@PHI· proj #13
6ERFinal
T3
Mitch KellerP
PIT@ATL· proj #23
6ERFinal
6
Jack PerkinsP
ATH@HOU· proj #1
5ERFinal
T6
Bryan WooP
SEA@DET· proj #17
5ERFinal
T6
Jesús LuzardoP
PHIvsCWS· proj #20
5ERFinal
T6
Ryan WeathersP
NYYvsBOS· proj #26
5ERFinal
10
Michael KingP
SDvsNYM· proj #14
4ERFinal
T10
Michael WachaP
KC@MIN· proj #29
4ERFinal
12
Ryan GustoP
MIAvsTB· proj #2
3ERFinal
T12
Martín PérezP
ATLvsPIT· proj #3
3ERFinal
T12
Sonny GrayP
BOS@NYY· proj #6
3ERFinal
T12
Brandon SproatP
MIL@COL· proj #7
3ERFinal
T12
Parker MessickP
CLE@TEX· proj #12
3ERFinal
T12
Kyle LeahyP
STLvsCIN· proj #19
3ERFinal
T12
Brandon YoungP
BAL@TOR· proj #22
3ERFinal
19
Kumar RockerP
TEXvsCLE· proj #9
2ERFinal
T19
Zebby MatthewsP
MINvsKC· proj #21
2ERFinal
21
Ryan FeltnerP
COLvsMIL· proj #4
1ERFinal
T21
Brady SingerP
CIN@STL· proj #11
1ERFinal
T21
Peter LambertP
HOUvsATH· proj #24
1ERFinal
T21
Framber ValdezP
DETvsSEA· proj #25
1ERFinal
T21
Foster GriffinP
WSH@AZ· proj #27
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
3/560%
season 52%+8 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
4/1040%
season 52%-12 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
12/2060%
season building
Top 50
17/3057%
season building
Full slate
17/3057%
season 49%+8 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Friday, June 5, 2026
Jack Perkins (ATH) is the top earned runs spot on the Friday, June 5, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.3 ER, with Ryan Gusto (MIA) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Jack Perkins
Jack Perkins (ATH) tops the Friday, June 5, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.3 ER vs HOU. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Ryan Gusto (MIA) (65) — about 1.9 ER vs TB.
Martín Pérez (ATL) (57) — about 2.0 ER vs PIT.
Ryan Feltner (COL) (42) — about 2.2 ER vs MIL.
Christian Scott (NYM) (37) — about 2.3 ER vs SD.
Sonny Gray (BOS) (31) — about 2.4 ER vs NYY.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.6 ER. Jack Perkins finished with 5. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Friday, June 5, 2026)?
Jack Perkins (ATH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.3 ER against HOU.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Friday, June 5, 2026: Jack Perkins (~1.3 ER), Ryan Gusto (~1.9 ER), Martín Pérez (~2.0 ER), Ryan Feltner (~2.2 ER), Christian Scott (~2.3 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
