Best MLB earned runs matchups — Saturday, June 6, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, June 6, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload8.8 BF
Expected batters faced8.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%1.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%1.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)11.7%1.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%1.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)11.7%1.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)11.7%1.0
7. Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%1.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%1.0
9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)11.7%0.8
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+170-250
We project 1.0 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.1 BF
Expected batters faced9.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%1.1
2. Trea Turner (R)11.7%1.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%1.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%1.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%1.0
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%1.0
7. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%1.0
8. Adolis García (R)11.7%1.0
9. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload11.0 BF
Expected batters faced11.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Oliver Dunn (L)11.7%2.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%2.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)11.7%1.0
4. Richie Palacios (L)11.7%1.0
5. Ben Williamson (R)11.7%1.0
6. Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%1.0
7. Taylor Walls (L)11.7%1.0
8. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.7%1.0
9. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload13.4 BF
Expected batters faced13.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Orlando Arcia (R)11.7%2.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)11.7%2.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%2.0
4. Josh Bell (L)11.7%2.0
5. Austin Martin (R)11.7%1.4
6. Alex Jackson (R)11.7%1.0
7. Royce Lewis (R)11.7%1.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%1.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-175
DKDraftKings+125-166
FANFanatics+125-180
We project 1.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload14.9 BF
Expected batters faced14.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%2.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%2.0
3. Brice Turang (L)11.7%2.0
4. William Contreras (R)11.7%2.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)11.7%2.0
6. Blake Perkins (L)11.7%1.9
7. Sal Frelick (L)11.7%1.0
8. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%1.0
9. David Hamilton (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
We project 1.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.7 BF
Expected batters faced16.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Hentges (L)11.7%2.0
2. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%2.0
3. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%2.0
4. Willy Adames (R)11.7%2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.7%2.0
6. Jonah Cox (R)11.7%2.0
7. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%2.0
8. Eric Haase (R)11.7%1.7
9. Victor Bericoto (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-126-105
We project 1.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.5 BF
Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carlos Cortes (L)11.7%3.0
2. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%2.5
3. Jonah Heim (L)11.7%2.0
4. Colby Thomas (R)11.7%2.0
5. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%2.0
6. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%2.0
7. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)11.7%2.0
9. Darell Hernaiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-108-123
FANFanatics-140+100
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.7%2.0
5. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%2.0
6. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%2.0
7. Mark Vientos (R)11.7%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)11.7%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+126-168
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Xavier Edwards (R)11.7%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%2.1
5. Leo Jiménez (R)11.7%2.0
6. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%2.0
7. Esteury Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
8. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-130-102
We project 2.4 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Gleyber Torres (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%3.0
4. Jahmai Jones (R)11.7%2.1
5. Riley Greene (L)11.7%2.0
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%2.0
7. Colt Keith (L)11.7%2.0
8. Matt Vierling (R)11.7%2.0
9. Wenceel Pérez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+106-141
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.7 BF
Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%3.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%2.7
5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.0
6. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%2.0
7. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%2.0
8. LuJames Groover (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+110
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-129-103
FANFanatics-155+110
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.7%2.8
5. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%2.0
6. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%2.0
7. Endy Rodríguez (L)11.7%2.0
8. Tyler Callihan (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jake Mangum (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
DKDraftKings+119-158
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Will Benson (L)11.7%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%3.0
3. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%3.0
4. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%3.0
5. Edwin Arroyo (R)11.7%2.1
6. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%2.0
7. Noelvi Marte (R)11.7%2.0
8. Matt McLain (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nathaniel Lowe (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+105-139
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%3.0
4. Maikel Garcia (R)11.7%3.0
5. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%2.2
6. Michael Massey (L)11.7%2.0
7. Tyler Tolbert (R)11.7%2.0
8. Josh Rojas (L)11.7%2.0
9. Kyle Isbel (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-165
DKDraftKings+131-175
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.2 BF
Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luisangel Acuña (R)11.7%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
3. Randal Grichuk (R)11.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
5. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%2.2
6. Jacob Gonzalez (L)11.7%2.0
7. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%2.0
8. Drew Romo (L)11.7%2.0
9. Derek Hill (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
DKDraftKings-113-117
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Cole Young (L)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)11.7%2.5
6. Dominic Canzone (L)11.7%2.0
7. Patrick Wisdom (R)11.7%2.0
8. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jhonny Pereda (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-120
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-103-129
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
2. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)11.7%2.7
6. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%2.0
7. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%2.0
8. Pedro Ramírez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Carson Kelly (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+117-155
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Justin Foscue (R)11.7%3.0
2. Corey Seager (L)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)11.7%3.0
5. Wyatt Langford (R)11.7%2.9
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jake Burger (R)11.7%2.0
8. Evan Carter (L)11.7%2.0
9. Kyle Higashioka (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-125
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+111-147
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Cam Smith (R)11.7%3.0
2. Collin Price (R)11.7%3.0
3. Brice Matthews (R)11.7%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
5. Nick Allen (R)11.7%3.0
6. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)11.7%3.0
2. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)11.7%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%3.0
6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%2.1
7. Braxton Fulford (R)11.7%2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%2.0
9. Chad Stevens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-110
DKDraftKings-136+102
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0
3. Ty France (R)11.7%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jase Bowen (R)11.7%3.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%2.3
7. Miguel Andujar (R)11.7%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)11.7%2.0
9. Freddy Fermin (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+120
DKDraftKings-138+104
FANFanatics-170+120
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)11.7%3.0
6. Ryan Ward (L)11.7%2.5
7. Alex Call (R)11.7%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
DKDraftKings+100-133
We project 2.6 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%3.0
6. José Fermín (R)11.7%2.6
7. Bryan Torres (L)11.7%2.0
8. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-139+105
FANFanatics-145+105
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
4. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%3.0
5. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%3.0
6. Brandon Valenzuela (L)11.7%2.8
7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+105
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-105-127
FANFanatics-135-105
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.7%3.0
5. Daniel Schneemann (L)11.7%3.0
6. Angel Martínez (L)11.7%3.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)11.7%2.2
8. Patrick Bailey (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+115-154
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0
3. Luis García Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%3.0
7. Jacob Young (R)11.7%2.5
8. Nasim Nuñez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
BOVBovada-125-115
DKDraftKings-120-110
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)11.7%3.0
2. Jose Siri (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wade Meckler (L)11.7%3.0
4. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%3.0
5. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.7%3.0
6. Jo Adell (R)11.7%3.0
7. Nick Madrigal (R)11.7%2.7
8. Donovan Walton (L)11.7%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
DKDraftKings-153+115
FANFanatics-135-105
We project 2.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.0 BF
Expected batters faced25.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)11.7%3.0
5. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%3.0
6. Austin Riley (R)11.7%3.0
7. Eli White (R)11.7%3.0
8. Austin Wynns (R)11.7%2.0
9. Ha-Seong Kim (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-175
DKDraftKings+127-170
FANFanatics+125-180
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
21 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Kade MorrisP
ATH@HOU· proj #19
9ERFinal
2
Jack KochanowiczP
LAA@LAD· proj #22
7ERFinal
3
Andrew PainterP
PHIvsCWS· proj #15
6ERFinal
T3
Braxton AshcraftP
PIT@ATL· proj #28
6ERFinal
5
Kyle BradishP
BAL@TOR· proj #24
5ERFinal
T5
Jack LeiterP
TEXvsCLE· proj #25
5ERFinal
7
Shane McClanahanP
TB@MIA· proj #9
4ERFinal
T7
Keider MonteroP
DETvsSEA· proj #16
4ERFinal
T7
Nick LodoloP
CIN@STL· proj #23
4ERFinal
T7
Eduardo RodriguezP
AZvsWSH· proj #26
4ERFinal
11
Spencer StriderP
ATLvsPIT· proj #12
3ERFinal
T11
Matthew LiberatoreP
STLvsCIN· proj #13
3ERFinal
13
Zach AgnosP
COLvsMIL· proj #5
2ERFinal
T13
Tatsuya ImaiP
HOUvsATH· proj #7
2ERFinal
15
Luinder AvilaP
KC@MIN· proj #4
1ERFinal
T15
Griffin CanningP
SDvsNYM· proj #8
1ERFinal
T15
Zack LittellP
WSH@AZ· proj #11
1ERFinal
T15
Joe RyanP
MINvsKC· proj #14
1ERFinal
T15
Landen RouppP
SF@CHC· proj #17
1ERFinal
T15
Nolan McLeanP
NYM@SD· proj #21
1ERFinal
T15
Yoshinobu YamamotoP
LADvsLAA· proj #27
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/367%
season 52%+15 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
6/875%
season 52%+23 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
9/1753%
season building
Top 50
14/2556%
season building
Full slate
14/2556%
season 49%+7 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Saturday, June 6, 2026
Braydon Fisher (TOR) is the top earned runs spot on the Saturday, June 6, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER, with Brandon Eisert (CWS) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Braydon Fisher
Braydon Fisher (TOR) tops the Saturday, June 6, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER vs BAL. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Brandon Eisert (CWS) (98) — about 1.0 ER vs PHI.
Lake Bachar (MIA) (87) — about 1.2 ER vs TB.
Luinder Avila (KC) (72) — about 1.5 ER vs MIN.
Zach Agnos (COL) (62) — about 1.7 ER vs MIL.
Ben Brown (CHC) (51) — about 1.9 ER vs SF.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 1.0 ER. Braydon Fisher finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Saturday, June 6, 2026)?
Braydon Fisher (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.0 ER against BAL.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Saturday, June 6, 2026: Braydon Fisher (~1.0 ER), Brandon Eisert (~1.0 ER), Lake Bachar (~1.2 ER), Luinder Avila (~1.5 ER), Zach Agnos (~1.7 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
