Best MLB earned runs matchups — Sunday, June 7, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, June 7, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.5 BF
Expected batters faced9.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%1.4
2. Mauricio Dubón (R)11.7%1.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%1.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)11.7%1.0
5. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%1.0
6. Austin Riley (R)11.7%1.0
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.7%1.0
8. Jorge Mateo (R)11.7%1.0
9. Austin Wynns (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+190-285
FANFanatics+190-280
We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload10.1 BF
Expected batters faced10.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%2.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%1.1
3. Ty France (R)11.7%1.0
4. Manny Machado (R)11.7%1.0
5. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%1.0
6. Bryce Johnson (L)11.7%1.0
7. Jase Bowen (R)11.7%1.0
8. Samad Taylor (R)11.7%1.0
9. Freddy Fermin (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+185-275
BOVBovada+190-290
FANFanatics+185-270
We project 1.1 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload13.3 BF
Expected batters faced13.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)11.7%2.0
2. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%2.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)11.7%2.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%2.0
5. Kyle Karros (R)11.7%1.3
6. Jake McCarthy (L)11.7%1.0
7. Edouard Julien (L)11.7%1.0
8. Sterlin Thompson (L)11.7%1.0
9. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-160
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+125-166
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 1.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.2 BF
Expected batters faced16.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%2.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%2.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%2.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)11.7%2.0
5. Connor Norby (R)11.7%2.0
6. Esteury Ruiz (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%1.2
9. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+105
DKDraftKings-137+103
FANFanatics-150+105
We project 1.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.8 BF
Expected batters faced16.8
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%2.0
2. Trea Turner (R)11.7%2.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%2.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%2.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%2.0
7. Adolis García (R)11.7%2.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)11.7%1.8
9. Rafael Marchán (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 0.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
FANFanatics-145+100
We project 1.9 ER vs the 0.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Vierling (R)11.7%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
3. Gleyber Torres (R)11.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)11.7%2.0
5. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%2.0
6. Zack Short (R)11.7%2.0
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%2.0
9. Wenceel Pérez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
DKDraftKings+103-137
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nicky Lopez (L)11.7%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
3. Evan Carter (L)11.7%3.0
4. Justin Foscue (R)11.7%2.1
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%2.0
6. Joc Pederson (L)11.7%2.0
7. Jake Burger (R)11.7%2.0
8. Michael Helman (R)11.7%2.0
9. Elias Díaz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-165
DKDraftKings+121-162
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Cole Young (L)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%2.1
5. Victor Robles (R)11.7%2.0
6. Rob Refsnyder (R)11.7%2.0
7. Patrick Wisdom (R)11.7%2.0
8. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jhonny Pereda (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
DKDraftKings-102-130
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brice Turang (L)11.7%3.0
3. William Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)11.7%2.1
5. Gary Sánchez (R)11.7%2.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)11.7%2.0
7. Luis Rengifo (R)11.7%2.0
8. Sal Frelick (L)11.7%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-115
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings-121-109
We project 2.4 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%2.4
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.7%2.0
6. Bryan Torres (L)11.7%2.0
7. José Fermín (R)11.7%2.0
8. Nelson Velázquez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Victor Scott II (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-115
DKDraftKings-120-110
FANFanatics-125-115
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
3. Edgar Quero (L)11.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%2.8
5. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%2.0
6. Randal Grichuk (R)11.7%2.0
7. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%2.0
8. Drew Romo (L)11.7%2.0
9. Derek Hill (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-160
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+111-148
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%3.0
2. Michael Massey (L)11.7%3.0
3. Maikel Garcia (R)11.7%3.0
4. Starling Marte (R)11.7%3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%2.0
6. Nick Loftin (R)11.7%2.0
7. Isaac Collins (R)11.7%2.0
8. Carter Jensen (L)11.7%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-118
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-102-130
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wade Meckler (L)11.7%3.0
4. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%3.0
5. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.7%2.1
6. Jo Adell (R)11.7%2.0
7. Nick Madrigal (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jose Siri (R)11.7%2.0
9. Sebastián Rivero (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-137+103
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ryan McMahon (L)11.7%3.0
5. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%2.5
6. Anthony Volpe (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
8. José Caballero (R)11.7%2.0
9. J.C. Escarra (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-115
DKDraftKings+102-135
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.7%3.0
5. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%2.5
6. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%2.0
7. Brett Baty (L)11.7%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+107-142
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%3.0
4. Dane Myers (R)11.7%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%2.6
6. Will Benson (L)11.7%2.0
7. Matt McLain (R)11.7%2.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)11.7%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-125
DKDraftKings-109-121
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.7%3.0
5. Daniel Schneemann (L)11.7%2.7
6. Angel Martínez (L)11.7%2.0
7. David Fry (R)11.7%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)11.7%2.0
9. Stuart Fairchild (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
DKDraftKings-141+106
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Dylan Smith (R)11.7%3.0
2. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%3.0
3. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willy Adames (R)11.7%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.7%3.0
6. Jonah Cox (R)11.7%2.1
7. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%2.0
8. Daniel Susac (R)11.7%2.0
9. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings-101-131
FANFanatics-110-130
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Tristan Gray (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (R)11.7%3.0
3. Orlando Arcia (R)11.7%3.0
4. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%3.0
5. Josh Bell (R)11.7%3.0
6. Royce Lewis (R)11.7%2.1
7. Trevor Larnach (L)11.7%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%2.0
9. Victor Caratini (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+104-138
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%2.3
7. Keibert Ruiz (L)11.7%2.0
8. José Tena (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jacob Young (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+113-150
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)11.7%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%3.0
6. Mickey Gasper (L)11.7%2.5
7. Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)11.7%2.0
9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-185
DKDraftKings+127-169
FANFanatics+125-180
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)11.7%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)11.7%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%2.6
7. Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%2.0
8. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jose Altuve (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings-104-128
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
2. Michael Conforto (L)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)11.7%3.0
6. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%2.7
7. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%2.0
8. Pedro Ramírez (L)11.7%2.0
9. Carson Kelly (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+115-153
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%3.0
5. Sam Huff (R)11.7%3.0
6. Colton Cowser (L)11.7%2.7
7. Tyler O'Neill (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
DKDraftKings+105-140
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0
2. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0
3. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%3.0
4. Max Muncy (L)11.7%3.0
5. Alex Call (R)11.7%3.0
6. Dalton Rushing (L)11.7%2.9
7. Ryan Ward (L)11.7%2.0
8. Miguel Rojas (R)11.7%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-140+105
FANFanatics-120-120
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
2. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%3.0
5. Brent Rooker (R)11.7%3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%3.0
7. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.2
8. Jeff McNeil (L)11.7%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+100
DKDraftKings-132-101
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%3.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)11.7%3.0
5. Pavin Smith (L)11.7%3.0
6. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
7. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%2.3
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jorge Barrosa (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
DKDraftKings+112-149
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.6 BF
Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Davis Wendzel (R)11.7%3.0
2. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.7%3.0
5. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%3.0
6. Tyler Callihan (L)11.7%3.0
7. Jake Mangum (L)11.7%2.6
8. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Endy Rodríguez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
DKDraftKings+103-136
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.2 BF
Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
4. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%3.0
5. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%3.0
6. Brandon Valenzuela (L)11.7%3.0
7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%3.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.2
9. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
DKDraftKings-122-108
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.3 BF
Expected batters faced25.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)11.7%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%3.0
3. Richie Palacios (L)11.7%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)11.7%3.0
5. Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%3.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
7. Ryan Vilade (R)11.7%3.0
8. Hunter Feduccia (L)11.7%2.3
9. Taylor Walls (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings-103-129
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
23 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Joey CantilloP
CLE@TEX· proj #7
7ERFinal
2
Aaron NolaP
PHIvsCWS· proj #11
5ERFinal
3
Randy VásquezP
SDvsNYM· proj #15
4ERFinal
T3
Kevin GausmanP
TORvsBAL· proj #24
4ERFinal
T3
José SorianoP
LAA@LAD· proj #25
4ERFinal
T3
Mike BurrowsP
HOUvsATH· proj #26
4ERFinal
T3
Cade CavalliP
WSH@AZ· proj #27
4ERFinal
8
Shane DrohanP
MIL@COL· proj #3
3ERFinal
T8
Jack FlahertyP
DETvsSEA· proj #8
3ERFinal
T8
Kyle FreelandP
COLvsMIL· proj #9
3ERFinal
11
Connor PrielippP
MINvsKC· proj #12
2ERFinal
T11
Emmet SheehanP
LADvsLAA· proj #13
2ERFinal
T11
Michael McGreevyP
STLvsCIN· proj #16
2ERFinal
T11
Bryce ElderP
ATLvsPIT· proj #28
2ERFinal
15
Tyler GilbertP
CWS@PHI· proj #5
1ERFinal
T15
Luis CastilloP
SEA@DET· proj #6
1ERFinal
T15
Ranger SuarezP
BOS@NYY· proj #14
1ERFinal
T15
Jameson TaillonP
CHCvsSF· proj #18
1ERFinal
T15
Michael SorokaP
AZvsWSH· proj #20
1ERFinal
T15
Cam SchlittlerP
NYYvsBOS· proj #21
1ERFinal
T15
Trevor McDonaldP
SF@CHC· proj #23
1ERFinal
T15
Shane BazP
BAL@TOR· proj #29
1ERFinal
T15
Sandy AlcantaraP
MIAvsTB· proj #30
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
1/520%
season 52%-32 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
4/1040%
season 52%-12 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
7/2035%
season building
Top 50
11/3037%
season building
Full slate
11/3037%
season 49%-12 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 7, 2026
Mason Montgomery (PIT) is the top earned runs spot on the Sunday, June 7, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER, with Huascar Brazobán (NYM) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Mason Montgomery
Mason Montgomery (PIT) tops the Sunday, June 7, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER vs ATL. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Huascar Brazobán (NYM) (96) — about 1.1 ER vs SD.
Shane Drohan (MIL) (76) — about 1.5 ER vs COL.
Griffin Jax (TB) (58) — about 1.8 ER vs MIA.
Tyler Gilbert (CWS) (54) — about 1.9 ER vs PHI.
Luis Castillo (SEA) (27) — about 2.4 ER vs DET.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 1.8 ER. Mason Montgomery finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Sunday, June 7, 2026)?
Mason Montgomery (PIT) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER against ATL.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Sunday, June 7, 2026: Mason Montgomery (~1.1 ER), Huascar Brazobán (~1.1 ER), Shane Drohan (~1.5 ER), Griffin Jax (~1.8 ER), Tyler Gilbert (~1.9 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
