Best MLB Outs Recorded Matchups — Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Top spot: Jesús Luzardo
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) projects for the deepest start on the slate — about 19.2 outs against AZ. Depth is earned two ways: efficiency against this specific lineup, and a manager with reasons to let him keep the ball.
The rest of the top of the board
- Logan Webb (SF) (98) — about 18.9 outs vs PIT.
- Matthew Boyd (CHC) (96) — about 18.7 outs vs MIL.
- Sean Manaea (NYM) (91) — about 17.9 outs vs TB.
- Troy Melton (DET) (89) — about 17.6 outs vs MIN.
- MacKenzie Gore (TEX) (81) — about 16.4 outs vs ATH.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 16.2 outs. Jesús Luzardo finished with 20. Every projection is graded against the box score.
Why outs are the quiet DFS stat
Three outs per inning, so 18 outs is six innings and 21 is seven — and the difference between those two numbers is bigger than it looks. On DraftKings, innings pay more than anything except strikeouts, and a start that ends in the fifth caps everything else the arm was building. Depth also decides who gets the win bonus and how much bullpen variance leaks into the run total. What shortens a leash rarely shows up in a season ERA: a lineup that grinds pitch counts, a thin bullpen the manager is protecting, a pitch-limited arm coming off a layoff. That's what this board is scoring.
How to read the outs recorded board
Every starter gets a 0–100 score for how deep tonight sets up — his pitch efficiency against this lineup's patience, blended with how long his club has actually let him work. The projected outs number beside it is the honest translation: 15 is five innings, 18 is six, 21 is seven. Where a book posts an outs line, we show it with our lean, and every projection grades against the box score.
What the outs recorded board is
The Outs Recorded board projects how deep a starter goes — his projected outs. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His workload and recent pitch counts.
- The matchup difficulty.
- The game script.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Transparency board, and a key input to the team run model (how many innings the starter covers vs the bullpen).
How to use it
Useful for DFS (a starter who goes deep banks more) and as context; not a standalone edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays