Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Thursday, October 1, 2026
Top rbis spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP the starter. The lefty is driving in runs at .138 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .055 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 15% of his trips. And the starter has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against the starter. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (87) vs RHP the starter: an excellent bat at .143 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (83) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .110 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Alex Bregman (CHC) (82) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .134 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (82) vs RHP the starter: an excellent bat at .141 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Manny Machado (SD) (81) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .136 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (78) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .131 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) (75) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .114 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Best parks to drive in runs today
Petco Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) at 83.
Lineup watch
36 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays