Best MLB triples matchups — Thursday, October 1, 2026

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best triples matchup today (Thursday, October 1, 2026)?

Justin Crawford (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP the starter. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB triples matchups today (Thursday, October 1, 2026)?

The top triples matchups on Thursday, October 1, 2026: Justin Crawford (100), Pete Crow-Armstrong (97), Jackson Merrill (89), Alex Bregman (69), Ha-Seong Kim (65). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by triples upside.

Which parks favor triples today?

Petco Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% triple park). Top bat there: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) at 97.

How is the triples matchup score calculated?

It's his triples rate against that hand, but with far more weight on the park than any other board — most yards produce almost none. Speed and expected trips finish it. 0–100 across the slate.

What does 3B/PA mean?

Triples per plate appearance — how often a hitter reaches third on his own hit. The league rate is about .004, or one every 250 trips, which makes the triple the rarest hit in baseball. Speed and ballpark do most of the work here, so treat this board as a projection of a rare event rather than a reliable edge.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better, but keep the sample in mind: triples are the rarest hit in baseball. A top score here means a genuinely good spot for a rare event, not a likely one.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a triple.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

The handedness split is the smallest factor on this board. A triple needs a ball in the right gap and legs to match, so speed and the park matter more than which arm is throwing.

What are park factors?

This is the most park-driven number on the site. Triples need deep, odd corners — a few yards produce most of them and the rest of the league produces almost none. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a triple in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for triples props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ triple" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Triples are the rarest hit in baseball, so treat any short-run record here as noise — the season number is the only one worth reading, and it's on the board.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Is MatchWiz free?

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.