Last scored matchup
Justin isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 7 days ago, away at Atlanta Braves on Thursday, October 1, 2026, where he landed on stolen bases (69.7/100), triples (41.2/100), doubles (27.7/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
Recent form
Justin is 6-for-28 (.214) over his last 10 games, in line with his .264 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.
What kind of hitter he is
Justin puts the ball in play — 76 strikeouts in 416 at-bats, about 18% of the time. Contact hitters carry their value on the hits board rather than the power boards, and they're less matchup-dependent than sluggers: a strikeout arm hurts him less than it hurts a hitter who sells out for damage. He's also run — 17 stolen bases — which shows up on the steals board.
He's a left-handed bat
Justin hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.
Floor and ceiling
Justin has recorded at least one hit in 87 of 140 games he's batted in — 62% — with 18 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.
Home and away
Justin is hitting .296 at home (59-for-199) and .235 on the road (51-for-217) across the season. That's a real-looking split, and it's the kind of thing that's usually part park and part noise. The model doesn't apply a blanket home-road adjustment — it prices the actual ballpark he's standing in, which is the part that carries signal.
Against Atlanta Braves
Justin is 1-for-7 (.143) against Atlanta Braves in our log, over 3 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 7 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.
How our calls on Justin have graded
In the 5 games where we ranked Justin a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 3 times — 60%. That's a thin sample and we'd treat it as such. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.
Where he lands across our boards
Justin was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: stolen bases graded 69.7/100 while rbis came in at 0/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Justin gets scored the same way a backup infielder does — same inputs, same scale, no thumb on it. What he's done against arms of this handedness, what this particular pitcher and bullpen give up, his likely plate appearances, the ballpark, the conditions, his recent form. The weighting behind those is ours and gets re-tuned weekly against what actually happened. The output is public and graded, which is the only claim worth making.
What we'd flag
Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample.