Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, August 1, 2026)?

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.3 K against BAL. A 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Saturday, August 1, 2026: Cristopher Sánchez (~6.3 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~6.0 K), Jacob deGrom (~5.7 K), Payton Tolle (~5.3 K), Logan Gilbert (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Saturday, August 1, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, August 1, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 61% — a +11% return.

3:07 PM ET

STLaway

TORhomeTop matchup58 4:10 PM ET

CWSaway

TBhomeTop matchup87 4:10 PM ET

MIAaway

NYMhomeTop matchup54 4:10 PM ET

MINaway

SEAhomeTop matchup87 6:40 PM ET

PITaway

CINhomeTop matchup95 7:05 PM ET

PHIaway

BALhomeTop matchup100 7:10 PM ET

TEXaway

HOUhomeTop matchup95 7:15 PM ET

WSHaway

ATLhomeTop matchup56 7:15 PM ET

NYYaway

CHChomeTop matchup71 7:15 PM ET

AZaway

CLEhomeTop matchup67 8:10 PM ET

KCaway

COLhomeTop matchup39 8:40 PM ET

SFaway

SDhomeTop matchup42 9:10 PM ET

BOSaway

LADhomeTop matchup90 9:38 PM ET

MILaway

LAAhomeTop matchup81 9:40 PM ET

DETaway

ATHhomeTop matchup51

PROJ30 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.4% K / BF

vs LHB30.5%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30vs PIT9

Jul 6@ KC1

Jul 11@ DET7

Jul 20vs LAD7

Jul 26vs NYY6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Dylan Beavers (L)20.8%3.0

2. Pete Alonso (R)24.8%3.0

3. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.6%3.0

4. Taylor Ward (R)22.3%3.0

5. Leody Taveras (R)26.3%3.0

6. Jackson Holliday (L)22.9%2.1

7. Coby Mayo (R)25.6%2.0

8. Colton Cowser (L)28.4%2.0

9. Yohel Pozo (R)15.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cristopher Sánchez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29@ PHI8

Jul 4@ WSH7

Jul 11vs MIL6

Jul 20@ NYY2

Jul 26vs CHC5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Elly De La Cruz (L)24.4%3.0

2. Sal Stewart (R)22.9%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)21.9%3.0

4. Tyler Stephenson (R)27.1%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)23.7%3.0

6. Eugenio Suárez (R)30.6%2.1

7. Dane Myers (R)25.6%2.0

8. Noelvi Marte (R)20.9%2.0

9. Matt McLain (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Braxton Ashcraft's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.4% K / BF

vs LHB26.7%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24@ MIA8

Jun 30@ CLE9

Jul 7vs LAA7

Jul 20vs CWS6

Jul 26vs SEA4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)18.6%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.1%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)15.3%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)27.4%3.0

5. Jose Altuve (R)20.8%3.0

6. Taylor Trammell (L)27.6%2.2

7. Yainer Diaz (R)17.0%2.0

8. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)22.0%2.0

9. Cam Smith (R)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jacob deGrom's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.5% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB29.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1vs WSH5

Jul 7@ CWS6

Jul 12@ NYM7

Jul 20vs BAL9

Jul 27@ ATH7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Tommy Edman (R)21.0%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)20.6%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)22.1%3.0

4. Max Muncy (L)23.4%3.0

5. Mookie Betts (R)14.0%2.8

6. Kyle Tucker (L)19.9%2.0

7. Teoscar Hernández (R)22.7%2.0

8. Dalton Rushing (L)26.3%2.0

9. Enrique Hernández (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Payton Tolle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB29.1%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27@ CLE7

Jul 4vs TOR7

Jul 11@ TB5

Jul 19vs SF10

Jul 26@ TEX4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Austin Martin (R)21.3%3.0

2. Ryan Jeffers (R)21.0%3.0

3. Royce Lewis (R)23.2%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)22.8%3.0

5. Kody Clemens (L)22.8%3.0

6. Luke Keaschall (R)15.7%2.9

7. Brooks Lee (L)16.8%2.0

8. Alex Jackson (R)23.9%2.0

9. Ryan Kreidler (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Gilbert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.7%

vs RHB23.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28vs AZ5

Jul 4@ HOU2

Jul 9vs NYY2

Jul 21@ TOR5

Jul 26vs CLE9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)17.1%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.5%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.0%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)31.0%2.5

5. Andrew Benintendi (L)22.2%2.0

6. Braden Montgomery (L)20.2%2.0

7. Tristan Peters (L)21.1%2.0

8. Chase Meidroth (R)21.3%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Drew Rasmussen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.2% K / BF

vs LHB23.3%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 20vs MIA8

Jul 26@ CWS4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)21.7%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)22.8%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)22.9%3.0

4. Brandon Nimmo (L)24.0%3.0

5. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.6%2.5

6. Evan Carter (L)21.6%2.0

7. Jake Burger (R)24.4%2.0

8. Nicky Lopez (L)17.9%2.0

9. Austin Wynns (R)26.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ronel Blanco's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.0% K / BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.7 BF

Expected batters faced24.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27@ SD4

Jul 4vs SD10

Jul 11vs AZ6

Jul 19@ NYY7

Jul 25@ NYM5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Anthony Seigler (L)19.3%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.1%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)24.6%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)26.2%3.0

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)13.3%3.0

6. Caleb Durbin (R)16.4%3.0

7. Jarren Duran (L)26.2%2.7

8. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.9%2.0

9. Connor Wong (R)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB25.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30@ SEA9

Jul 7@ TEX4

Jul 12@ MIN0

Jul 20vs STL7

Jul 26@ SF5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)22.9%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.2%3.0

3. Jake Bauers (L)27.1%3.0

4. Christian Yelich (L)24.0%3.0

5. Gary Sánchez (R)22.2%2.3

6. Garrett Mitchell (L)27.7%2.0

7. Luis Lara (L)22.0%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)22.4%2.0

9. Cooper Pratt (R)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

José Soriano's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs STL2

Jun 19@ AZ4

Jun 28vs COL10

Jul 8vs CLE6

Jul 26vs ATH5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Cole Young (L)19.4%3.0

2. Randy Arozarena (R)21.2%3.0

3. Dominic Canzone (L)20.8%3.0

4. Julio Rodríguez (R)20.3%3.0

5. Josh Naylor (L)17.2%2.8

6. Cal Raleigh (R)30.9%2.0

7. Luke Raley (L)25.0%2.0

8. Weston Wilson (R)26.4%2.0

9. Colt Emerson (L)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Connor Prielipp's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.4% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 3vs BAL6

May 8@ MIL5

May 13@ BAL2

Jul 22vs PIT7

Jul 27@ CWS4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)25.0%3.0

2. Pedro Ramírez (R)22.0%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)22.5%3.0

4. Alex Bregman (R)17.2%2.9

5. Ian Happ (R)28.1%2.0

6. Nico Hoerner (R)15.2%2.0

7. Michael Conforto (L)22.2%2.0

8. Dansby Swanson (R)26.6%2.0

9. Miguel Amaya (R)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Max Fried's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29vs TEX5

Jul 4vs CWS3

Jul 10@ MIA1

Jul 21vs MIN6

Jul 26@ TB6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Corbin Carroll (L)21.3%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)16.1%3.0

3. Gabriel Moreno (R)17.9%3.0

4. Ketel Marte (R)16.0%3.0

5. Max Kepler (L)21.9%2.7

6. Nolan Arenado (R)18.4%2.0

7. Adrian Del Castillo (L)26.1%2.0

8. Tim Tawa (R)23.9%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Parker Messick's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29vs CWS6

Jul 7vs CHC3

Jul 12vs KC9

Jul 20@ BOS6

Jul 26vs ATL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)24.4%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)30.8%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.4%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.5%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)22.9%3.0

6. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.4%2.7

7. Bryson Stott (L)21.6%2.0

8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Baz's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29vs CIN5

Jul 7@ STL4

Jul 12@ PIT3

Jul 19vs MIA5

Jul 25vs COL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)25.3%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)23.1%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.4%3.0

4. Vaughn Grissom (R)16.6%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)23.1%2.5

6. Wade Meckler (L)24.3%2.0

7. Denzer Guzman (R)27.1%2.0

8. Josh Lowe (L)26.3%2.0

9. Tyler Heineman (R)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Robert Gasser's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30vs NYM7

Jul 6@ SF8

Jul 12@ SD8

Jul 21vs TB1

Jul 26@ BOS6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.7%3.0

2. Jordan Walker (R)25.7%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.3%3.0

4. Iván Herrera (R)21.2%3.0

5. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.1%3.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)19.8%2.4

7. Nathan Church (L)21.0%2.0

8. José Fermín (R)16.7%2.0

9. Jimmy Crooks (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kevin Gausman's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.9 BF

Expected batters faced19.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1vs STL6

Jul 6vs NYM5

Jul 11@ STL3

Jul 21vs SD6

Jul 26@ BAL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)24.9%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)19.3%2.9

3. Dylan Crews (R)24.1%2.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)18.3%2.0

5. Brady House (R)25.5%2.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)18.9%2.0

7. Harry Ford (R)20.4%2.0

8. José Tena (L)25.9%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)18.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Reynaldo López's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 20@ WSH3

Jun 26vs PHI7

Jul 12vs BOS5

Jul 21@ MIL2

Jul 27vs ATL5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Liam Hicks (L)18.7%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (R)20.8%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)15.7%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)28.4%3.0

5. Griffin Conine (L)23.9%2.6

6. Heriberto Hernández (R)24.2%2.0

7. Jakob Marsee (L)24.1%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)24.4%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)16.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zac Thornton's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nathan Lukes (L)25.4%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.5%3.0

3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)26.2%3.0

4. George Springer (R)19.4%3.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)20.3%3.0

6. Ernie Clement (R)15.8%2.0

7. Jesús Sánchez (L)22.6%2.0

8. Brandon Valenzuela (R)25.6%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Quinn Mathews's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB18.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27vs HOU2

Jul 2@ TEX1

Jul 9vs ATH9

Jul 21@ CHC1

Jul 26vs KC4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)32.2%3.0

2. Jacob Wilson (R)14.1%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)25.4%3.0

4. Jonah Heim (R)19.6%3.0

5. Tommy White (R)22.0%3.0

6. Lawrence Butler (L)24.7%2.1

7. Jeff McNeil (L)16.2%2.0

8. Carlos Cortes (L)23.1%2.0

9. Donovan Walton (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Framber Valdez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 21vs ATH5

Jul 26@ WSH1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Angel Martínez (R)18.3%3.0

2. José Ramírez (R)15.0%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)19.1%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)27.6%3.0

5. Brayan Rocchio (R)18.2%2.6

6. David Fry (R)27.5%2.0

7. Travis Bazzana (L)22.6%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)18.5%2.0

9. Steven Kwan (L)16.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kohl Drake's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.8% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1@ CHC6

Jul 6vs AZ4

Jul 11vs TOR1

Jul 21@ ATL3

Jul 26@ MIA7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Arraez (L)8.6%3.0

2. Heliot Ramos (R)24.6%3.0

3. Bryce Eldridge (L)27.4%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)24.4%3.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.2%2.0

6. Willy Adames (R)26.7%2.0

7. Daniel Susac (R)22.3%2.0

8. Grant McCray (L)25.9%2.0

9. Christian Koss (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walker Buehler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB17.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1@ MIL3

Jul 7vs PHI8

Jul 12vs CHC3

Jul 20@ SEA6

Jul 26@ STL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake Mangum (R)20.1%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)30.1%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)24.2%3.0

4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)25.0%3.0

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)22.5%2.9

6. Nick Gonzales (R)18.5%2.0

7. Endy Rodríguez (R)24.9%2.0

8. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Andrew Abbott's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.8% K / BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28@ MIN0

Jul 3vs SF9

Jul 9@ SF3

Jul 19vs CIN3

Jul 25@ MIL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)25.9%3.0

2. Lane Thomas (R)27.0%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)23.3%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)22.2%3.0

5. Michael Massey (L)17.8%2.6

6. Isaac Collins (L)23.1%2.0

7. John Rave (L)24.1%2.0

8. Josh Rojas (L)18.5%2.0

9. Andrew Velazquez (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ryan Feltner's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.6% K / BF

vs LHB18.4%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3@ ATH2

Jul 8vs SEA3

Jul 12vs CLE1

Jul 21@ HOU2

Jul 27vs PHI5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. A.J. Ewing (L)25.6%3.0

2. Francisco Lindor (L)21.0%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)19.4%3.0

4. Carson Benge (L)22.8%2.2

5. Luis Robert Jr. (R)23.4%2.0

6. Jared Young (L)20.1%2.0

7. Brett Baty (L)24.5%2.0

8. Jorge Polanco (L)23.7%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Phillips's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28@ CWS4

Jul 5vs PHI4

Jul 10@ BAL3

Jul 21vs SF7

Jul 26@ DET2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)19.7%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)23.1%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)30.9%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.9%2.5

5. Kyle Karros (R)22.1%2.0

6. Tyler Freeman (R)15.8%2.0

7. Troy Johnston (L)19.4%2.0

8. Brenton Doyle (R)29.8%2.0

9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Luinder Avila's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB16.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27@ MIL2

Jul 3vs STL3

Jul 9@ BAL2

Jul 21vs DET4

Jul 27@ STL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)20.0%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)27.0%3.0

3. Amed Rosario (R)24.0%3.0

4. Jasson Domínguez (R)22.0%2.6

5. Trent Grisham (L)20.0%2.0

6. Anthony Volpe (R)20.1%2.0

7. Spencer Jones (L)22.8%2.0

8. Ali Sánchez (R)23.5%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)26.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

David Peterson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.4% K / BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB17.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29@ AZ3

Jul 5@ COL5

Jul 11vs COL4

Jul 21@ KC4

Jul 27vs MIL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)19.0%3.0

2. Luis Rengifo (L)15.8%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)20.1%3.0

4. Ty France (R)21.5%3.0

5. Jackson Merrill (L)22.9%2.6

6. Luis Campusano (R)22.7%2.0

7. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.2%2.0

8. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.0%2.0

9. Jase Bowen (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Mahle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.7% K / BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.0 BF

Expected batters faced15.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21vs LAA8

Jun 27@ LAA5

Jul 3vs MIA8

Jul 21@ AZ4

Jul 27vs BOS4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Gleyber Torres (R)21.1%2.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.6%2.0

3. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.3%2.0

4. Dillon Dingler (R)22.0%2.0

5. Riley Greene (L)23.8%2.0

6. Eduardo Valencia (R)22.0%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)27.6%1.0

8. Matt Vierling (R)20.4%1.0

9. Javier Báez (R)21.8%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jack Perkins's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate14.1% K / BF

vs LHB15.2%

vs RHB15.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 6vs MIN3

May 12@ CIN2

Jun 29@ BOS3

Jul 6vs HOU3

Jul 26vs AZ1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)22.3%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)18.4%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)23.2%3.0

4. Ozzie Albies (L)21.1%3.0

5. Michael Harris II (L)20.7%2.3

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)14.8%2.0

7. Austin Riley (R)30.8%2.0

8. Joey Bart (R)22.9%2.0

9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Miles Mikolas's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.6% K / BF

vs LHB26.4%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.4 BF

Expected batters faced13.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.9%2.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)24.8%2.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)19.1%2.0

4. Cedric Mullins (L)22.5%2.0

5. Chandler Simpson (L)12.2%1.4

6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)25.7%1.0

7. Richie Palacios (L)20.2%1.0

8. Taylor Walls (L)25.8%1.0

9. Hunter Feduccia (L)23.5%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jordan Hicks's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Saturday, August 1, 2026

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is the top strikeout start on the Saturday, August 1, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.3 K, with Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.3 K against BAL. He's missing bats at a 25% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and BAL has been whiff-prone, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) (95) — about 6.0 K vs CIN: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) (95) — about 5.7 K vs HOU: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Payton Tolle (BOS) (90) — about 5.3 K vs LAD: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) (87) — about 5.7 K vs MIN: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Drew Rasmussen (TB) (87) — about 5.6 K vs CWS: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

CIN is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Braxton Ashcraft is the arm to exploit it (95).
MIL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — José Soriano is the arm to exploit it (81).
PIT is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Andrew Abbott is the arm to exploit it (40).
BAL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Cristopher Sánchez is the arm to exploit it (100).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, August 1, 2026)?: Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.3 K against BAL. A 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Saturday, August 1, 2026: Cristopher Sánchez (~6.3 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~6.0 K), Jacob deGrom (~5.7 K), Payton Tolle (~5.3 K), Logan Gilbert (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +11% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays