Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, June 29, 2026
Top total bases spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP the starter. The lefty is racking up bases at .446 TB/PA against righties this year — and .688 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 49% of his trips. And the starter has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against the starter. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (98) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: an excellent bat at .523 into an arm tough on the same side (.290).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (98) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .446 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.510).
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (97) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at .473 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.333), hot bat.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (95) vs RHP Peter Lambert: a strong bat at .475 into an arm tough on the same side (.280), due to bounce back.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (95) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .425 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.552), due to bounce back.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (94) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .405 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) (91) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .437 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.510).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .439 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), and Konnor Griffin (PIT).
- RHP Zebby Matthews has been getting squared up by righties — .432 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Joey Loperfido (HOU).
- LHP Sean Manaea has been vulnerable to lefties — .417 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: George Springer (TOR), Kazuma Okamoto (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).
- RHP Miles Mikolas has been vulnerable to righties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nate Eaton (BOS), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS).
Platoon edges to target
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .551 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .512 against righties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .561 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .506 against righties this year.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .359 against righties this year.
Best parks for total bases today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 94.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.