Who has the best total bases matchup today (Sunday, July 12, 2026)?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Will Warren. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Sunday, July 12, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Sunday, July 12, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Rafael Devers (100), Elly De La Cruz (100), Luis Arraez (92), Mickey Moniak (87). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Sunday, July 12, 2026?

No — Luis García Jr. didn't record a total base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .554 against righties this year. Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .517 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .604 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .415 against righties this year. Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .582 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Seth Lugo has been getting squared up by righties — .458 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Dylan Beavers (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL). RHP Will Warren has been vulnerable to righties — .417 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (WSH), James Wood (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH). LHP Ian Seymour has been vulnerable to lefties — .412 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Josh Naylor (SEA), and Randy Arozarena (SEA). LHP Andrew Abbott has been vulnerable to lefties — .407 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Sunday, July 12, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, July 12, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, July 12, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 0/5 (0%) on the total-bases over/under, against 47% on the season.

Top call James Wood came through. Luis García Jr. didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 5–14

MILaway

PIThomeTop matchup74 Final · 2–8

KCaway

BALhomeTop matchup79 Final · 5–3

NYYaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–0

PHIaway

DEThomeTop matchup81 Final · 8–4

CHCaway

CINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–2

BOSaway

NYMhomeTop matchup71 Final · 8–2

SEAaway

TBhomeTop matchup76 Final · 5–2

CLEaway

MIAhomeTop matchup73 Final · 2–4

LAAaway

MINhomeTop matchup66 Final · 1–9

ATHaway

CWShomeTop matchup77 Final · 4–3

ATLaway

STLhomeTop matchup79 Final · 5–6

HOUaway

TEXhomeTop matchup80 Final · 1–3

COLaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–5

TORaway

SDhomeTop matchup79 Final · 5–3

AZaway

LADhomeTop matchup82

Not starting67 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 337 shownScore

162 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@CIN· 3-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #174
2
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsAZ· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #8
T2
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsBOS· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #102
4
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@TB· 3-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #21
T4
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@MIA· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #25
T4
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsLAA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #90
T4
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsHOU· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #151
T4
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsATH· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #186
T4
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsKC· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #194
T4
Marcell OzunaDH
PITvsMIL· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #207
T4
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@MIN· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #219
T4
Henry DavisC
PITvsMIL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #246
13
James WoodRF
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #6
T13
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@SF· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #14
T13
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsATH· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #28
T13
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@MIA· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #29
T13
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@CWS· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #31
T13
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@SD· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T13
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsHOU· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T13
Michael Busch1B
CHC@CIN· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T13
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsKC· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #57
T13
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsCHC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #63
T13
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@SD· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #68
T13
Brice Turang2B
MIL@PIT· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #74
T13
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsSEA· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #85
T13
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@TB· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T13
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #104
T13
Cam SmithRF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #118
T13
Josh LoweLF
LAA@MIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #162
T13
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@LAD· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #188
T13
Kyle HigashiokaC
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #197
T13
Lane ThomasLF
KC@BAL· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #213
T13
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsMIL· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #233
T13
Weston Wilson3B
SEA@TB· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #252
T13
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
T13
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
37
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsKC· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #18
T37
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsATH· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #24
T37
Manny Machado3B
SDvsTOR· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #30
T37
Ben RiceDH
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #45
T37
Jake MangumCF
PITvsMIL· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #61
T37
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@SD· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #73
T37
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@PIT· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #78
T37
José TenaDH
WSHvsNYY· 2-for-2
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #127
T37
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@BAL· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #137
T37
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@WSH· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #148
T37
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@WSH· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #164
T37
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsMIL· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #170
T37
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsCOL· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #196
T37
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@BAL· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #218
T37
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@DET· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #232
T37
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsMIL· 2-for-2
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #236
T37
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@DET· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #256
T37
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@LAD· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #258
T37
Brewer HicklenRF
ATL@STL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #268
56
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsCOL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #9
T56
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsCHC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #10
T56
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TEX· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #13
T56
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATH@CWS· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #20
T56
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsCHC· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #22
T56
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsMIL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #23
T56
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #34
T56
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@SF· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T56
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T56
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@STL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #50
T56
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #58
T56
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@DET· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #59
T56
Mike TroutCF
LAA@MIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #65
T56
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsATL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #76
T56
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsSEA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #80
T56
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsBOS· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #84
T56
Christian YelichDH
MIL@PIT· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #95
T56
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsLAA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #106
T56
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@NYM· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #108
T56
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsKC· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #122
T56
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@MIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #124
T56
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLE@MIA· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #133
T56
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@PIT· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #136
T56
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsCLE· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #139
T56
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsCLE· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #158
T56
Kyle TeelC
CWSvsATH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #159
T56
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@LAD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #167
T56
Jonatan ClaseLF
TOR@SD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #169
T56
Tyrone TaylorLF
NYMvsBOS· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #192
T56
Steven KwanLF
CLE@MIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #217
T56
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #220
T56
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsLAA· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #222
T56
Jim JarvisSS
ATL@STL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #223
T56
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@CIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #237
T56
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@SD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #248
T56
Salvador PerezDH
KC@BAL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #250
T56
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsTOR· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #264
T56
Buddy Kennedy3B
SEA@TB· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #267
94
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsCHC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #3
T94
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@CIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #7
T94
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@CWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #19
T94
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #27
T94
Jonah HeimC
ATH@CWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #32
T94
Matt Olson1B
ATL@STL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T94
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@NYM· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T94
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #42
T94
Dylan BeaversLF
BALvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #44
T94
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #49
T94
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsAZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #51
T94
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #53
T94
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@TB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #56
T94
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@STL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #66
T94
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #70
T94
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@CIN· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #71
T94
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #75
T94
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsMIL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #82
T94
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsKC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #83
T94
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #92
T94
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLE@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #93
T94
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T94
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #96
T94
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #99
T94
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #100
T94
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@PIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #107
T94
Cole Young2B
SEA@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #109
T94
JJ BledayLF
CINvsCHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #113
T94
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #115
T94
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #120
T94
Noelvi MarteRF
CINvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #121
T94
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #123
T94
Ty France1B
SDvsTOR· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #129
T94
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@DET· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #135
T94
Liam HicksC
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #138
T94
Edwin Arroyo2B
CINvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #143
T94
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #145
T94
Gary SánchezC
MIL@PIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #149
T94
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@DET· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #154
T94
Cal RaleighC
SEA@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #160
T94
Gabriel Arias3B
CLE@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #165
T94
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TOR@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #171
T94
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KC@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #173
T94
Daulton VarshoCF
TOR@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #175
T94
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #178
T94
Joey Meneses1B
ATH@CWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #179
T94
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsMIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #180
T94
Petey HalpinCF
CLE@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #182
T94
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B
CINvsCHC· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #183
T94
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #195
T94
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #208
T94
Connor WongC
BOS@NYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #225
T94
Zach McKinstryRF
DETvsPHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #230
T94
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #234
T94
Luis TorrensC
NYMvsBOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #235
T94
José CaballeroSS
NYY@WSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #238
T94
José FermínLF
STLvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #242
T94
Austin WellsC
NYY@WSH· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #244
T94
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #245
T94
Hunter FeducciaC
TBvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #247
T94
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #249
T94
Ryan KreidlerSS
MINvsLAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #254
T94
Max SchuemannLF
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #261
T94
Kevin AlcántaraDH
CHC@CIN· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #263
T94
Tyler O'NeillRF
BALvsKC· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T94
Yainer DiazC
HOU@TEX· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T94
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@CWS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T94
Joe MackC
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB
T94
Eli WhiteRF
ATL@STL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, July 12, 2026

Luis García Jr. (WSH) is the top total bases matchup on the Sunday, July 12, 2026 board at 100, with Rafael Devers (SF) and Elly De La Cruz (CIN) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Luis García Jr.

Luis García Jr. (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Will Warren. The lefty is racking up bases at .554 TB/PA against righties this year — and 1.046 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 58% of his trips. And Will Warren has been getting squared up by righties lately — .600 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Will Warren. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Rafael Devers (SF) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .522 into an arm tough on the same side (.304).
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (100) vs LHP Matthew Boyd: a strong bat at .456 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.457).
Luis Arraez (SF) (92) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .407 into an arm tough on the same side (.304).
Mickey Moniak (COL) (87) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a strong bat at .472 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.478).
James Wood (WSH) (84) vs RHP Will Warren: a strong bat at .439 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.600).
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (83) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: a league-average bat at .355 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.684), due to bounce back.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (82) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: a strong bat at .432 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Seth Lugo has been getting squared up by righties — .458 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Dylan Beavers (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
RHP Will Warren has been vulnerable to righties — .417 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (WSH), James Wood (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH).
LHP Ian Seymour has been vulnerable to lefties — .412 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Josh Naylor (SEA), and Randy Arozarena (SEA).
LHP Andrew Abbott has been vulnerable to lefties — .407 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).

Platoon edges to target

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .554 against righties this year.
Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .517 against righties this year.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .604 against lefties this year.
Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .415 against righties this year.
Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .582 against righties this year.

How it played out

6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Luis García Jr. finished with 0 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Sunday, July 12, 2026)?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Will Warren. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Sunday, July 12, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Sunday, July 12, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Rafael Devers (100), Elly De La Cruz (100), Luis Arraez (92), Mickey Moniak (87). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Sunday, July 12, 2026?: No — Luis García Jr. didn't record a total base.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .554 against righties this year. Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .517 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .604 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .415 against righties this year. Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .582 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Seth Lugo has been getting squared up by righties — .458 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Dylan Beavers (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL). RHP Will Warren has been vulnerable to righties — .417 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (WSH), James Wood (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH). LHP Ian Seymour has been vulnerable to lefties — .412 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Josh Naylor (SEA), and Randy Arozarena (SEA). LHP Andrew Abbott has been vulnerable to lefties — .407 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.