Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, July 12, 2026
Top total bases spot: Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Will Warren. The lefty is racking up bases at .563 TB/PA against righties this year — and 1.125 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 59% of his trips. And Will Warren has been getting squared up by righties lately — .533 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Will Warren. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (80) vs LHP Matthew Boyd: a strong bat at .464 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.457).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (79) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .531 into an arm tough on the same side (.304).
- James Wood (WSH) (79) vs RHP Will Warren: a solid bat at .417 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.533).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (73) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a league-average bat at .348 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.692).
- Adley Rutschman (BAL) (73) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a solid bat at .371 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.692).
- Luis Arraez (SF) (72) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .412 into an arm tough on the same side (.304).
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (66) vs LHP Matthew Boyd: a solid bat at .394 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.457).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Seth Lugo has been getting squared up by righties — .458 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
- LHP MacKenzie Gore has been vulnerable to lefties — .419 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).
- RHP Will Warren has been vulnerable to righties — .414 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (WSH), James Wood (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH).
- LHP Ian Seymour has been vulnerable to lefties — .412 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .563 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .616 against lefties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .519 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .446 against righties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .349 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.