Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, October 10, 2026
Top total bases spot: Sam Antonacci
Sam Antonacci (CWS) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Gavin Williams. The lefty is racking up bases at .370 TB/PA against righties this year — and .583 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 39% of his trips. And Gavin Williams has been getting squared up by righties lately — .667 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .083 in 12 career PA against Gavin Williams, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Teel (CWS) (91) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a solid bat at .386 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.667).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (85) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a strong bat at .431 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.667).
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (74) vs RHP Sean Burke: a solid bat at .378 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.357).
- Jo Adell (CLE) (68) vs RHP Sean Burke: a league-average bat at .343 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.571).
- Andrew Benintendi (CWS) (61) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a solid bat at .372 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.667).
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (61) vs RHP Sean Burke: a solid bat at .388 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.357).
- José Ramírez (CLE) (55) vs RHP Sean Burke: a league-average bat at .336 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.357).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Gavin Williams has been giving up bases to righties — .377 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Kyle Teel (CWS), and Munetaka Murakami (CWS).
- RHP Sean Burke has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Steven Kwan (CLE), Jo Adell (CLE), and Chase DeLauter (CLE).
Platoon edges to target
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .370 against righties this year.
- Kyle Teel (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .435 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
- Andrew Benintendi (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .388 against righties this year.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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