Best MLB Walks Matchups — Friday, October 23, 2026
Top walks spot: Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Nick Martinez. The lefty is working counts at .170 BB/PA against righties this year, an elite bat that turns into a walk in about 15% of his trips. And Nick Martinez has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Nick Martinez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (63) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a solid bat at .096 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (61) vs RHP Nick Martinez: an excellent bat at .123 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Liam Hicks (TB) (59) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a strong bat at .104 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (46) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a strong bat at .103 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (45) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a league-average bat at .078 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Taylor Walls (TB) (42) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a strong bat at .107 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) (40) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a solid bat at .095 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .170 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .102 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .144 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .105 against righties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .103 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Jake Bauers finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays