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Who is most likely to find the end zone this week — touchdown odds driven by goal-line work, not just big-play ability.
LV vs MIASun 4 PMAshton JeantyRB0.77 rush TD0.13 rec TDTDMGM-125+5.0%WizEdge
LV vs MIASun 4 PM61%−1532TD
LAR vs SFThu 8 PMKyren WilliamsRB0.69 rush TD0.12 rec TDTDDK-130+0.2%WizEdge
LAR vs SFThu 8 PM57%−1311TD
IND vs BALSun 1 PMJonathan TaylorRB0.67 rush TD0.12 rec TDTDMGM-175−8.3%WizEdge
IND vs BALSun 1 PM55%−1242TD
CIN vs TBSun 1 PMChase BrownRB0.66 rush TD0.12 rec TDTDFAN-120+0.3%WizEdge
CIN vs TBSun 1 PM55%−1211TD
PHI vs WSHSun 4 PMSaquon BarkleyRB0.63 rush TD0.11 rec TDTDFAN-115−0.5%WizEdge
PHI vs WSHSun 4 PM53%−113
TB @ CINSun 1 PMBucky IrvingRB0.58 rush TD0.10 rec TDTDCZR+114+3.9%WizEdge
TB @ CINSun 1 PM51%−1021TD
NYG vs DALSun 8 PMCam SkatteboRB0.58 rush TD0.10 rec TDTDMGM+115+4.0%WizEdge
NYG vs DALSun 8 PM51%−1021TD
ATL @ PITSun 1 PMBijan RobinsonRB0.57 rush TD0.10 rec TDTDFAN-115−3.6%WizEdge
ATL @ PITSun 1 PM50%+1011TD
DET vs NOSun 1 PMJahmyr GibbsRB0.57 rush TD0.10 rec TDTDDK-260−22.6%WizEdge
DET vs NOSun 1 PM50%+1022TD
DAL @ NYGSun 8 PMJavonte WilliamsRB0.53 rush TD0.09 rec TDTDFAN-140−10.8%WizEdge
DAL @ NYGSun 8 PM48%+1102TD
CHI @ CARSun 1 PMD'Andre SwiftRB0.52 rush TD0.09 rec TDTDFAN-115−6.6%WizEdge
CHI @ CARSun 1 PM47%+1133TD
LAC vs ARISun 4 PMOmarion HamptonRB0.49 rush TD0.09 rec TDTDFAN-150−14.9%WizEdge
LAC vs ARISun 4 PM45%+1221TD
TEN vs NYJSun 1 PMCarnell TateWR0.52 rec TD0.03 rush TDTDFAN+310+18.8%WizEdge
TEN vs NYJSun 1 PM43%+131
SF @ LARThu 8 PMChristian McCaffreyRB0.46 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDMGM-145−16.9%WizEdge
SF @ LARThu 8 PM42%+136
BAL @ INDSun 1 PMDerrick HenryRB0.46 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDMGM-185−22.7%WizEdge
BAL @ INDSun 1 PM42%+1373TD
PIT vs ATLSun 1 PMJaylen WarrenRB0.45 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDDK+140+0.3%WizEdge
PIT vs ATLSun 1 PM42%+138
BAL @ INDSun 1 PMZay FlowersWR0.47 rec TD0.03 rush TDTDFAN+185+5.0%WizEdgeBAL @ INDSun 1 PM40%+1491TD
TB @ CINSun 1 PMKenny GainwellRB0.41 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDDK+195+5.2%WizEdgeTB @ CINSun 1 PM39%+156
DET vs NOSun 1 PMAmon-Ra St. BrownWR0.45 rec TD0.03 rush TDTDFAN-105−12.6%WizEdgeDET vs NOSun 1 PM39%+1592TD
SEA vs NEWed 8 PMJaxon Smith-NjigbaWR0.45 rec TD0.03 rush TDTDDK+145−2.3%WizEdge
SEA vs NEWed 8 PM39%+1591TD
MIN vs GBSun 4 PMAaron JonesRB0.40 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDFAN+185+2.9%WizEdge
MIN vs GBSun 4 PM38%+1641TD
SEA vs NEWed 8 PMJadarian PriceRB0.40 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDDK+140−3.8%WizEdgeSEA vs NEWed 8 PM38%+164
PIT vs ATLSun 1 PMRico DowdleRB0.39 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDDK+135−5.4%WizEdgePIT vs ATLSun 1 PM37%+169
DAL @ NYGSun 8 PMCeeDee LambWR0.40 rec TD0.02 rush TDTDDK+135−7.7%WizEdgeDAL @ NYGSun 8 PM35%+1871TDHow often our number landed on the right side of the line a book actually posted. Every quoted line counts, not just the big disagreements — and a push settles as neither. There are no units here: two seasons of walk-forward say these lines are efficient, so we grade accuracy and don't claim an edge we can't show. Tiers are nested and re-ranked every week, so a Top 5 line is also a Top 10 one. They rank the players a book actually quoted, not every name on the board. Green means it beat what picking a side with no model at all would have scored.
Every number here comes from the same drive-level simulation as the matchups board, so a player's line and his team's projected points are the same game. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
