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Who is most likely to find the end zone this week — touchdown odds driven by goal-line work, not just big-play ability.
DET @ ARISun 4 PMJahmyr GibbsRB0.89 rush TD0.16 rec TDTDMGM-400−13.3%WizEdge
DET @ ARISun 4 PM67%−200
ATL vs BALSun 8 PMBijan RobinsonRB0.66 rush TD0.12 rec TDTDDK-240−15.3%WizEdge
ATL vs BALSun 8 PM55%−124
DAL vs TBThu 8 PMJavonte WilliamsRB0.66 rush TD0.11 rec TDTDMGM-200−12.1%WizEdge
DAL vs TBThu 8 PM55%−120
LAR vs BUFMon 8 PMKyren WilliamsRB0.62 rush TD0.11 rec TDTDFD-175−11.5%WizEdge
LAR vs BUFMon 8 PM52%−109
SEA vs SFSun 4 PMJaxon Smith-NjigbaWR0.64 rec TD0.04 rush TDTDDK-110−2.1%WizEdge
SEA vs SFSun 4 PM50%−101
SF @ SEASun 4 PMChristian McCaffreyRB0.57 rush TD0.10 rec TDTDDK-135−7.7%WizEdge
SF @ SEASun 4 PM50%+101
ARI vs DETSun 4 PMJeremiyah LoveRB0.56 rush TD0.10 rec TDTDMGM-118−4.8%WizEdge
ARI vs DETSun 4 PM49%+103
IND @ PITSun 1 PMJonathan TaylorRB0.54 rush TD0.10 rec TDTDMGM-175−16.1%WizEdge
IND @ PITSun 1 PM48%+110
LAR vs BUFMon 8 PMPuka NacuaWR0.55 rec TD0.03 rush TDTDMGM-125−10.6%WizEdgeLAR vs BUFMon 8 PM45%+122
JAX vs PHISun 9 AMBhayshul TutenRB0.49 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDDK-105−6.7%WizEdge
JAX vs PHISun 9 AM45%+125
BAL @ ATLSun 8 PMDerrick HenryRB0.45 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDMGM-150−18.0%WizEdge
BAL @ ATLSun 8 PM42%+138
PIT vs INDSun 1 PMJaylen WarrenRB0.45 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDFD-140−16.4%WizEdge
PIT vs INDSun 1 PM42%+138
CLE @ NYJSun 1 PMQuinshon JudkinsRB0.45 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDDK+160+3.1%WizEdge
CLE @ NYJSun 1 PM42%+141
SEA vs SFSun 4 PMEmanuel WilsonRB0.44 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDDK-120−13.2%WizEdgeSEA vs SFSun 4 PM41%+142
NYJ vs CLESun 1 PMBraelon AllenRB0.44 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDDK-105−10.2%WizEdge
NYJ vs CLESun 1 PM41%+144
BUF @ LARMon 8 PMJames CookRB0.44 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDCZR-117−13.4%WizEdge
BUF @ LARMon 8 PM41%+147
DAL vs TBThu 8 PMCeeDee LambWR0.48 rec TD0.03 rush TDTDMGM-105−10.8%WizEdgeDAL vs TBThu 8 PM40%+148
GB vs CHISun 1 PMMarShawn LloydRB0.41 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDMGM+130−4.8%WizEdge
GB vs CHISun 1 PM39%+159
JAX vs PHISun 9 AMParker WashingtonWR0.43 rec TD0.03 rush TDTDFD+160−1.2%WizEdgeJAX vs PHISun 9 AM37%+168
NE vs LVSun 1 PMRhamondre StevensonRB0.38 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDDK-140−21.5%WizEdge
NE vs LVSun 1 PM37%+172
LAC vs DENSun 4 PMOmarion HamptonRB0.37 rush TD0.06 rec TDTDMGM+165−2.5%WizEdge
LAC vs DENSun 4 PM35%+183How often our number landed on the right side of the line a book actually posted. Every quoted line counts, not just the big disagreements — and a push settles as neither. There are no units here: two seasons of walk-forward say these lines are efficient, so we grade accuracy and don't claim an edge we can't show. Tiers are nested and re-ranked every week, so a Top 5 line is also a Top 10 one. They rank the players a book actually quoted, not every name on the board. Green means it beat what picking a side with no model at all would have scored.
Every number here comes from the same drive-level simulation as the matchups board, so a player's line and his team's projected points are the same game. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
