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Who is most likely to find the end zone this week — touchdown odds driven by goal-line work, not just big-play ability.
IND @ WSHSun 9 AMJonathan TaylorRB0.76 rush TD0.13 rec TDTDMGM-275−13.3%WizEdge
IND @ WSHSun 9 AM60%−1512TD
DET @ CARSun 8 PMJahmyr GibbsRB0.74 rush TD0.13 rec TDTDFAN-320−17.0%WizEdge
DET @ CARSun 8 PM59%−1451TD
SF vs DENSun 4 PMChristian McCaffreyRB0.69 rush TD0.12 rec TDTDFAN-155−4.0%WizEdge
SF vs DENSun 4 PM57%−1311TD
MIN vs MIASun 4 PMAaron JonesRB0.63 rush TD0.11 rec TDTDFAN-135−4.3%WizEdge
MIN vs MIASun 4 PM53%−114
BAL vs TENSun 1 PMDerrick HenryRB0.61 rush TD0.11 rec TDTDFAN-210−15.8%WizEdge
BAL vs TENSun 1 PM52%−1081TD
CIN vs JAXSun 1 PMChase BrownRB0.57 rush TD0.10 rec TDTDFAN-135−7.9%WizEdge
CIN vs JAXSun 1 PM50%+102
CAR vs DETSun 8 PMChuba HubbardRB0.56 rush TD0.10 rec TDTDDK-130−7.1%WizEdge
CAR vs DETSun 8 PM49%+1022TD
SEA vs LACSun 4 PMJaxon Smith-NjigbaWR0.61 rec TD0.04 rush TDTDMGM-115−5.2%WizEdge
SEA vs LACSun 4 PM48%+107
ATL @ NOMon 8 PMBijan RobinsonRB0.54 rush TD0.10 rec TDTDDK-205−19.2%WizEdge
ATL @ NOMon 8 PM48%+1082TD
BUF vs NESun 1 PMJames CookRB0.51 rush TD0.09 rec TDTDMGM-125−9.5%WizEdge
BUF vs NESun 1 PM46%+1171TD
ARI @ NYGSun 1 PMJeremiyah LoveRB0.51 rush TD0.09 rec TDTDMGM-125−9.7%WizEdge
ARI @ NYGSun 1 PM46%+118
KC @ LVSun 4 PMKenneth Walker IIIRB0.50 rush TD0.09 rec TDTDDK-150−15.1%WizEdge
KC @ LVSun 4 PM45%+1232TD
CHI vs NYJSun 1 PMD'Andre SwiftRB0.49 rush TD0.09 rec TDTDFAN+100−5.3%WizEdge
CHI vs NYJSun 1 PM45%+124
CLE vs PITThu 8 PMQuinshon JudkinsRB0.48 rush TD0.09 rec TDTDFD+150+4.2%WizEdge
CLE vs PITThu 8 PM44%+1261TD
DAL @ HOUSun 1 PMJavonte WilliamsRB0.47 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDMGM-125−12.2%WizEdge
DAL @ HOUSun 1 PM43%+1313TD
PIT @ CLEThu 8 PMJaylen WarrenRB0.47 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDFD+105−6.4%WizEdge
PIT @ CLEThu 8 PM42%+136
LAR @ PHISun 1 PMKyren WilliamsRB0.45 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDDK-105−9.0%WizEdge
LAR @ PHISun 1 PM42%+1372TD
BAL vs TENSun 1 PMZay FlowersWR0.50 rec TD0.03 rush TDTDFAN+150+1.7%WizEdgeBAL vs TENSun 1 PM42%+1401TD
PHI vs LARSun 1 PMSaquon BarkleyRB0.45 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDDK+120−4.0%WizEdge
PHI vs LARSun 1 PM41%+141
NYG vs ARISun 1 PMCam SkatteboRB0.43 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDMGM-130−16.1%WizEdge
NYG vs ARISun 1 PM40%+147
LAR @ PHISun 1 PMPuka NacuaWR0.45 rec TD0.03 rush TDTDFAN+150−1.2%WizEdgeLAR @ PHISun 1 PM39%+1581TD
HOU vs DALSun 1 PMDavid MontgomeryRB0.40 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDMGM-120−16.4%WizEdge
HOU vs DALSun 1 PM38%+162
JAX @ CINSun 1 PMBhayshul TutenRB0.40 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDFAN+110−9.5%WizEdge
JAX @ CINSun 1 PM38%+162How often our number landed on the right side of the line a book actually posted. Every quoted line counts, not just the big disagreements — and a push settles as neither. There are no units here: two seasons of walk-forward say these lines are efficient, so we grade accuracy and don't claim an edge we can't show. Tiers are nested and re-ranked every week, so a Top 5 line is also a Top 10 one. They rank the players a book actually quoted, not every name on the board. Green means it beat what picking a side with no model at all would have scored.
Every number here comes from the same drive-level simulation as the matchups board, so a player's line and his team's projected points are the same game. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
