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Who is most likely to find the end zone this week — touchdown odds driven by goal-line work, not just big-play ability.
ATL vs CARSun 1 PMBijan RobinsonRB0.87 rush TD0.15 rec TDTDDK-175+1.8%WizEdge
ATL vs CARSun 1 PM65%−189
DET @ BUFThu 8 PMJahmyr GibbsRB0.72 rush TD0.13 rec TDTDFAN-245−12.6%WizEdge
DET @ BUFThu 8 PM58%−1401TD
DAL vs WSHSun 4 PMJavonte WilliamsRB0.70 rush TD0.13 rec TDTDMGM-175−6.1%WizEdge
DAL vs WSHSun 4 PM58%−135
SF vs MIASun 4 PMChristian McCaffreyRB0.69 rush TD0.12 rec TDTDMGM-220−12.2%WizEdge
SF vs MIASun 4 PM57%−1302TD
BUF vs DETThu 8 PMJames CookRB0.69 rush TD0.12 rec TDTDMGM-150−3.7%WizEdge
BUF vs DETThu 8 PM56%−1291TD
BAL vs NOSun 1 PMDerrick HenryRB0.59 rush TD0.11 rec TDTDMGM-220−18.0%WizEdge
BAL vs NOSun 1 PM51%−1031TD
LAR vs NYGMon 8 PMKyren WilliamsRB0.56 rush TD0.10 rec TDTDFAN-160−12.8%WizEdge
LAR vs NYGMon 8 PM49%+1051TD
KC vs INDSun 8 PMKenneth Walker IIIRB0.54 rush TD0.09 rec TDTDFAN-185−17.7%WizEdge
KC vs INDSun 8 PM47%+112
IND @ KCSun 8 PMJonathan TaylorRB0.52 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDFAN-140−12.1%WizEdge
IND @ KCSun 8 PM46%+1162TD
HOU vs CINSun 1 PMDavid MontgomeryRB0.50 rush TD0.09 rec TDTDMGM-135−11.8%WizEdge
HOU vs CINSun 1 PM46%+119
LAR vs NYGMon 8 PMPuka NacuaWR0.56 rec TD0.03 rush TDTDCZR+102−4.1%WizEdgeLAR vs NYGMon 8 PM45%+120
TB vs CLESun 1 PMBucky IrvingRB0.49 rush TD0.09 rec TDTDFAN+100−5.1%WizEdge
TB vs CLESun 1 PM45%+123
PHI @ TENSun 1 PMSaquon BarkleyRB0.48 rush TD0.09 rec TDTDFD-110−8.2%WizEdge
PHI @ TENSun 1 PM44%+127
NYJ vs GBSun 1 PMBreece HallRB0.48 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDFAN+110−3.9%WizEdge
NYJ vs GBSun 1 PM44%+129
WSH @ DALSun 4 PMJacory Croskey-MerrittRB0.47 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDFAN+115−3.2%WizEdge
WSH @ DALSun 4 PM43%+131
SEA @ ARISun 4 PMJadarian PriceRB0.47 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDFD+160+4.6%WizEdge
SEA @ ARISun 4 PM43%+132
CIN @ HOUSun 1 PMChase BrownRB0.47 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDFAN+130−0.5%WizEdge
CIN @ HOUSun 1 PM43%+133
GB @ NYJSun 1 PMMarShawn LloydRB0.46 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDFAN+165+4.4%WizEdge
GB @ NYJSun 1 PM42%+1371TD
NE vs PITSun 1 PMRhamondre StevensonRB0.44 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDFAN+120−4.5%WizEdge
NE vs PITSun 1 PM41%+144
NYG @ LARMon 8 PMCam SkatteboRB0.43 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDMGM+120−5.1%WizEdge
NYG @ LARMon 8 PM40%+148
CHI vs MINSun 1 PMD'Andre SwiftRB0.43 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDFAN-130−16.4%WizEdge
CHI vs MINSun 1 PM40%+150
ARI vs SEASun 4 PMJeremiyah LoveRB0.42 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDDK+195+5.7%WizEdge
ARI vs SEASun 4 PM40%+153
DAL vs WSHSun 4 PMCeeDee LambWR0.46 rec TD0.03 rush TDTDFAN+125−5.1%WizEdgeDAL vs WSHSun 4 PM39%+1542TD
LAC vs LVSun 4 PMOmarion HamptonRB0.41 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDCZR-154−21.3%WizEdge
LAC vs LVSun 4 PM39%+1541TDHow often our number landed on the right side of the line a book actually posted. Every quoted line counts, not just the big disagreements — and a push settles as neither. There are no units here: two seasons of walk-forward say these lines are efficient, so we grade accuracy and don't claim an edge we can't show. Tiers are nested and re-ranked every week, so a Top 5 line is also a Top 10 one. They rank the players a book actually quoted, not every name on the board. Green means it beat what picking a side with no model at all would have scored.
Every number here comes from the same drive-level simulation as the matchups board, so a player's line and his team's projected points are the same game. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
