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Who is most likely to find the end zone this week — touchdown odds driven by goal-line work, not just big-play ability.
DET vs NYJSun 1 PMJahmyr GibbsRB0.82 rush TD0.14 rec TDTDFAN-275−10.2%WizEdge
DET vs NYJSun 1 PM63%−1723TD
SF vs ARISun 4 PMChristian McCaffreyRB0.78 rush TD0.14 rec TDTDMGM-235−8.3%WizEdge
SF vs ARISun 4 PM62%−1621TD
IND vs HOUSun 1 PMJonathan TaylorRB0.68 rush TD0.12 rec TDTDDK-145−3.1%WizEdge
IND vs HOUSun 1 PM56%−128
MIA vs KCSun 1 PMDe'Von AchaneRB0.66 rush TD0.12 rec TDTDDK+120+9.5%WizEdge
MIA vs KCSun 1 PM55%−122
BAL @ DALSun 4 PMDerrick HenryRB0.64 rush TD0.11 rec TDTDFAN-225−15.6%WizEdge
BAL @ DALSun 4 PM54%−1162TD
DAL vs BALSun 4 PMJavonte WilliamsRB0.63 rush TD0.11 rec TDTDFAN-155−7.4%WizEdge
DAL vs BALSun 4 PM53%−1141TD
SEA @ WSHSun 1 PMJaxon Smith-NjigbaWR0.69 rec TD0.04 rush TDTDMGM+105+4.5%WizEdge
SEA @ WSHSun 1 PM53%−1142TD
ATL @ GBThu 8 PMBijan RobinsonRB0.63 rush TD0.11 rec TDTDDK-135−4.5%WizEdge
ATL @ GBThu 8 PM53%−1132TD
KC @ MIASun 1 PMKenneth Walker IIIRB0.63 rush TD0.11 rec TDTDFAN-180−11.5%WizEdge
KC @ MIASun 1 PM53%−1122TD
BUF vs LACSun 1 PMJames CookRB0.63 rush TD0.11 rec TDTDDK-155−8.1%WizEdge
BUF vs LACSun 1 PM53%−1121TD
SEA @ WSHSun 1 PMJadarian PriceRB0.56 rush TD0.10 rec TDTDDK+155+10.1%WizEdgeSEA @ WSHSun 1 PM49%+103
NYJ @ DETSun 1 PMBreece HallRB0.46 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDFAN+105−6.7%WizEdge
NYJ @ DETSun 1 PM42%+138
LAR @ DENSun 8 PMKyren WilliamsRB0.45 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDFAN+105−7.4%WizEdge
LAR @ DENSun 8 PM41%+142
LAC @ BUFSun 1 PMOmarion HamptonRB0.45 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDMGM+100−8.6%WizEdge
LAC @ BUFSun 1 PM41%+142
PHI @ CHIMon 8 PMSaquon BarkleyRB0.44 rush TD0.08 rec TDTDFAN-105−10.3%WizEdge
PHI @ CHIMon 8 PM41%+144
CHI vs PHIMon 8 PMD'Andre SwiftRB0.43 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDMGM+100−9.7%WizEdge
CHI vs PHIMon 8 PM40%+148
NYG vs TENSun 1 PMCam SkatteboRB0.43 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDDK+100−10.0%WizEdge
NYG vs TENSun 1 PM40%+150
CLE vs CARSun 1 PMQuinshon JudkinsRB0.42 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDMGM+115−7.3%WizEdge
CLE vs CARSun 1 PM39%+155
ARI @ SFSun 4 PMJeremiyah LoveRB0.40 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDFAN+175+2.2%WizEdge
ARI @ SFSun 4 PM39%+1591TD
HOU @ INDSun 1 PMDavid MontgomeryRB0.40 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDFAN+105−11.1%WizEdge
HOU @ INDSun 1 PM38%+166
DAL vs BALSun 4 PMCeeDee LambWR0.43 rec TD0.03 rush TDTDMGM+115−9.2%WizEdgeDAL vs BALSun 4 PM37%+168
PHI @ CHIMon 8 PMDeVonta SmithWR0.42 rec TD0.03 rush TDTDFAN+185+1.6%WizEdgePHI @ CHIMon 8 PM37%+172
PIT vs CINSun 1 PMJaylen WarrenRB0.38 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDDK+120−9.0%WizEdge
PIT vs CINSun 1 PM36%+175
CAR @ CLESun 1 PMChuba HubbardRB0.37 rush TD0.07 rec TDTDMGM-110−16.7%WizEdge
CAR @ CLESun 1 PM36%+180How often our number landed on the right side of the line a book actually posted. Every quoted line counts, not just the big disagreements — and a push settles as neither. There are no units here: two seasons of walk-forward say these lines are efficient, so we grade accuracy and don't claim an edge we can't show. Tiers are nested and re-ranked every week, so a Top 5 line is also a Top 10 one. They rank the players a book actually quoted, not every name on the board. Green means it beat what picking a side with no model at all would have scored.
Every number here comes from the same drive-level simulation as the matchups board, so a player's line and his team's projected points are the same game. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
