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The chance each starting quarterback throws a pick this week. Books post this at 0.5, so what matters is whether he throws one at all — not how many he averages.
We haven't graded this board against a walk-forward run yet, so read it as a projection, not as an edge. What we have measured is the market: across 1,563 posted 0.5 lines from 2023 to 2025, betting every over blind returned −6.3% and every under −2.3%, both at the best price of five books. Both sides lose to the hold — this is a tight market. It's also why the number above is a chance and not an average: a quarterback averages 0.67 picks a game but throws one in only about 48% of starts, so an average read against a 0.5 line is an over on nearly every passer in the league.
How often our number landed on the right side of the line a book actually posted. Every quoted line counts, not just the big disagreements — and a push settles as neither. There are no units here: two seasons of walk-forward say these lines are efficient, so we grade accuracy and don't claim an edge we can't show. Green means it beat what picking a side with no model at all would have scored.
Every number here comes from the same drive-level simulation as the matchups board, so a player's line and his team's projected points are the same game. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
