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The chance each starting quarterback throws a pick this week. Books post this at 0.5, so what matters is whether he throws one at all — not how many he averages.
SEA vs KCSun 8 PMSam DarnoldQB1.08 INT projected · 33.7 att
SEA vs KCSun 8 PM59%1
NE @ CHIThu 8 PMDrake MayeQB0.92 INT projected · 31.2 att
NE @ CHIThu 8 PM53%1
LAR @ LVSun 4 PMMatthew StaffordQB0.81 INT projected · 36.0 att
LAR @ LVSun 4 PM49%1
IND @ MINSun 1 PMDaniel JonesQB0.81 INT projected · 32.7 att
IND @ MINSun 1 PM49%1
ARI vs DENSun 4 PMJacoby BrissettQB0.79 INT projected · 33.3 att
ARI vs DENSun 4 PM48%
LV vs LARSun 4 PMKirk CousinsQB0.78 INT projected · 34.9 att
LV vs LARSun 4 PM48%
NYG @ HOUSun 1 PMJ.J. McCarthyQB0.77 INT projected · 32.3 att
NYG @ HOUSun 1 PM47%
DAL @ PHIMon 8 PMDak PrescottQB0.76 INT projected · 37.1 att
DAL @ PHIMon 8 PM47%
PIT @ NOSun 9 AMAaron RodgersQB0.75 INT projected · 35.3 att
PIT @ NOSun 9 AM47%
MIA @ NYJSun 1 PMMalik WillisQB0.73 INT projected · 29.7 att
MIA @ NYJSun 1 PM45%
NO vs PITSun 9 AMTyler ShoughQB0.71 INT projected · 33.4 att
NO vs PITSun 9 AM45%1
GB @ DETSun 4 PMJordan LoveQB0.71 INT projected · 36.4 att
GB @ DETSun 4 PM45%1
TB @ CARSun 1 PMBaker MayfieldQB0.69 INT projected · 33.2 att
TB @ CARSun 1 PM44%
TEN vs CLESun 1 PMCam WardQB0.69 INT projected · 31.6 att
TEN vs CLESun 1 PM43%1
KC @ SEASun 8 PMPatrick MahomesQB0.65 INT projected · 32.1 att
KC @ SEASun 8 PM43%1
CIN @ BALSun 1 PMJoe BurrowQB0.65 INT projected · 34.9 att
CIN @ BALSun 1 PM42%
PHI vs DALMon 8 PMTanner McKeeQB0.63 INT projected · 35.7 att
PHI vs DALMon 8 PM41%1
DEN @ ARISun 4 PMBo NixQB0.60 INT projected · 32.2 att
DEN @ ARISun 4 PM39%
MIN vs INDSun 1 PMKyler MurrayQB0.59 INT projected · 28.3 att
MIN vs INDSun 1 PM39%
ATL vs SFSun 1 PMMichael Penix Jr.QB0.56 INT projected · 33.0 att
ATL vs SFSun 1 PM37%
CAR vs TBSun 1 PMBryce YoungQB0.54 INT projected · 35.3 att
CAR vs TBSun 1 PM36%2
CHI vs NEThu 8 PMCaleb WilliamsQB0.51 INT projected · 31.0 att
CHI vs NEThu 8 PM34%
SF @ ATLSun 1 PMBrock PurdyQB0.49 INT projected · 29.0 att
SF @ ATLSun 1 PM33%2
CLE @ TENSun 1 PMDeshaun WatsonQB0.47 INT projected · 28.1 att
CLE @ TENSun 1 PM32%1
NYJ vs MIASun 1 PMGeno SmithQB0.45 INT projected · 32.1 att
NYJ vs MIASun 1 PM31%1
HOU vs NYGSun 1 PMC.J. StroudQB0.43 INT projected · 33.5 att
HOU vs NYGSun 1 PM30%
DET vs GBSun 4 PMJared GoffQB0.38 INT projected · 35.4 att
DET vs GBSun 4 PM27%We haven't graded this board against a walk-forward run yet, so read it as a projection, not as an edge. What we have measured is the market: across 1,563 posted 0.5 lines from 2023 to 2025, betting every over blind returned −6.3% and every under −2.3%, both at the best price of five books. Both sides lose to the hold — this is a tight market. It's also why the number above is a chance and not an average: a quarterback averages 0.67 picks a game but throws one in only about 48% of starts, so an average read against a 0.5 line is an over on nearly every passer in the league.
How often our number landed on the right side of the line a book actually posted. Every quoted line counts, not just the big disagreements — and a push settles as neither. There are no units here: two seasons of walk-forward say these lines are efficient, so we grade accuracy and don't claim an edge we can't show. Green means it beat what picking a side with no model at all would have scored.
Every number here comes from the same drive-level simulation as the matchups board, so a player's line and his team's projected points are the same game. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).