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The chance each starting quarterback throws a pick this week. Books post this at 0.5, so what matters is whether he throws one at all — not how many he averages.
NE vs LVSun 1 PMDrake MayeQB1.03 INT projected · 28.6 att
NE vs LVSun 1 PM57%
LAR vs BUFMon 8 PMMatthew StaffordQB0.98 INT projected · 34.6 att
LAR vs BUFMon 8 PM56%
LAC vs DENSun 4 PMJustin HerbertQB0.95 INT projected · 29.5 att
LAC vs DENSun 4 PM55%1
SEA vs SFSun 4 PMSam DarnoldQB0.92 INT projected · 33.2 att
SEA vs SFSun 4 PM53%2
NYG @ WSHSun 1 PMJameis WinstonQB0.86 INT projected · 31.8 att
NYG @ WSHSun 1 PM51%
TB @ DALThu 8 PMJalon DanielsQB0.82 INT projected · 28.6 att
TB @ DALThu 8 PM49%
PIT vs INDSun 1 PMAaron RodgersQB0.80 INT projected · 33.7 att
PIT vs INDSun 1 PM49%
IND @ PITSun 1 PMDaniel JonesQB0.80 INT projected · 31.9 att
IND @ PITSun 1 PM49%
LV @ NESun 1 PMKirk CousinsQB0.80 INT projected · 33.0 att
LV @ NESun 1 PM49%
ARI vs DETSun 4 PMJacoby BrissettQB0.80 INT projected · 33.3 att
ARI vs DETSun 4 PM48%1
CIN @ MIASun 1 PMJoe BurrowQB0.72 INT projected · 35.3 att
CIN @ MIASun 1 PM46%
GB vs CHISun 1 PMJordan LoveQB0.73 INT projected · 34.5 att
GB vs CHISun 1 PM45%
PHI @ JAXSun 9 AMJalen HurtsQB0.71 INT projected · 30.6 att
PHI @ JAXSun 9 AM45%
ATL vs BALSun 8 PMMichael Penix Jr.QB0.69 INT projected · 31.1 att
ATL vs BALSun 8 PM44%
DEN @ LACSun 4 PMBo NixQB0.69 INT projected · 31.3 att
DEN @ LACSun 4 PM44%
MIN @ NOSun 1 PMKyler MurrayQB0.68 INT projected · 29.5 att
MIN @ NOSun 1 PM43%
DAL vs TBThu 8 PMDak PrescottQB0.66 INT projected · 35.5 att
DAL vs TBThu 8 PM42%2
BUF @ LARMon 8 PMJosh AllenQB0.66 INT projected · 28.5 att
BUF @ LARMon 8 PM42%1
BAL @ ATLSun 8 PMTyler HuntleyQB0.66 INT projected · 31.0 att
BAL @ ATLSun 8 PM42%
JAX vs PHISun 9 AMTrevor LawrenceQB0.65 INT projected · 30.7 att
JAX vs PHISun 9 AM42%1
NO vs MINSun 1 PMTyler ShoughQB0.65 INT projected · 32.9 att
NO vs MINSun 1 PM41%2
TEN vs HOUSun 1 PMCam WardQB0.62 INT projected · 30.6 att
TEN vs HOUSun 1 PM40%1
MIA vs CINSun 1 PMMalik WillisQB0.60 INT projected · 28.7 att
MIA vs CINSun 1 PM39%2
CLE @ NYJSun 1 PMDeshaun WatsonQB0.53 INT projected · 26.6 att
CLE @ NYJSun 1 PM36%
SF @ SEASun 4 PMBrock PurdyQB0.51 INT projected · 29.6 att
SF @ SEASun 4 PM35%1
WSH vs NYGSun 1 PMJayden DanielsQB0.48 INT projected · 27.4 att
WSH vs NYGSun 1 PM33%
DET @ ARISun 4 PMJared GoffQB0.44 INT projected · 35.7 att
DET @ ARISun 4 PM31%
HOU @ TENSun 1 PMC.J. StroudQB0.43 INT projected · 34.2 att
HOU @ TENSun 1 PM30%
NYJ vs CLESun 1 PMGeno SmithQB0.41 INT projected · 29.7 att
NYJ vs CLESun 1 PM29%We haven't graded this board against a walk-forward run yet, so read it as a projection, not as an edge. What we have measured is the market: across 1,563 posted 0.5 lines from 2023 to 2025, betting every over blind returned −6.3% and every under −2.3%, both at the best price of five books. Both sides lose to the hold — this is a tight market. It's also why the number above is a chance and not an average: a quarterback averages 0.67 picks a game but throws one in only about 48% of starts, so an average read against a 0.5 line is an over on nearly every passer in the league.
How often our number landed on the right side of the line a book actually posted. Every quoted line counts, not just the big disagreements — and a push settles as neither. There are no units here: two seasons of walk-forward say these lines are efficient, so we grade accuracy and don't claim an edge we can't show. Green means it beat what picking a side with no model at all would have scored.
Every number here comes from the same drive-level simulation as the matchups board, so a player's line and his team's projected points are the same game. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).