Loading the board.
Loading the board.
The chance each starting quarterback throws a pick this week. Books post this at 0.5, so what matters is whether he throws one at all — not how many he averages.
NE @ BUFSun 1 PMDrake MayeQB1.12 INT projected · 30.0 att
NE @ BUFSun 1 PM61%1
LAC @ SEASun 4 PMJustin HerbertQB0.90 INT projected · 31.1 att
LAC @ SEASun 4 PM53%2
LAR @ PHISun 1 PMMatthew StaffordQB0.90 INT projected · 33.7 att
LAR @ PHISun 1 PM53%2
TB vs GBSun 1 PMJalon DanielsQB0.84 INT projected · 31.3 att
TB vs GBSun 1 PM50%2
SEA vs LACSun 4 PMSam DarnoldQB0.85 INT projected · 32.9 att
SEA vs LACSun 4 PM50%1
IND @ WSHSun 9 AMDaniel JonesQB0.82 INT projected · 33.2 att
IND @ WSHSun 9 AM49%1
PIT @ CLEThu 8 PMAaron RodgersQB0.81 INT projected · 34.0 att
PIT @ CLEThu 8 PM49%2
MIN vs MIASun 4 PMKyler MurrayQB0.81 INT projected · 29.6 att
MIN vs MIASun 4 PM49%
PHI vs LARSun 1 PMJalen HurtsQB0.76 INT projected · 29.6 att
PHI vs LARSun 1 PM47%
LV vs KCSun 4 PMKirk CousinsQB0.77 INT projected · 30.3 att
LV vs KCSun 4 PM47%1
ATL @ NOMon 8 PMMichael Penix Jr.QB0.74 INT projected · 30.9 att
ATL @ NOMon 8 PM46%
NO vs ATLMon 8 PMTyler ShoughQB0.73 INT projected · 32.8 att
NO vs ATLMon 8 PM46%
JAX @ CINSun 1 PMTrevor LawrenceQB0.73 INT projected · 31.8 att
JAX @ CINSun 1 PM45%
CAR vs DETSun 8 PMBryce YoungQB0.71 INT projected · 35.7 att
CAR vs DETSun 8 PM45%
GB @ TBSun 1 PMJordan LoveQB0.70 INT projected · 35.8 att
GB @ TBSun 1 PM44%1
NYG vs ARISun 1 PMJameis WinstonQB0.69 INT projected · 31.7 att
NYG vs ARISun 1 PM44%2
KC @ LVSun 4 PMPatrick MahomesQB0.68 INT projected · 31.8 att
KC @ LVSun 4 PM44%
CHI vs NYJSun 1 PMTyson BagentQB0.65 INT projected · 31.3 att
CHI vs NYJSun 1 PM42%1
MIA @ MINSun 4 PMMalik WillisQB0.64 INT projected · 28.3 att
MIA @ MINSun 4 PM41%
TEN @ BALSun 1 PMCam WardQB0.62 INT projected · 33.3 att
TEN @ BALSun 1 PM40%1
CIN vs JAXSun 1 PMJoe BurrowQB0.60 INT projected · 33.6 att
CIN vs JAXSun 1 PM39%2
SF vs DENSun 4 PMBrock PurdyQB0.57 INT projected · 30.3 att
SF vs DENSun 4 PM38%
DAL @ HOUSun 1 PMDak PrescottQB0.58 INT projected · 33.4 att
DAL @ HOUSun 1 PM38%
BUF vs NESun 1 PMJosh AllenQB0.57 INT projected · 25.6 att
BUF vs NESun 1 PM38%1
ARI @ NYGSun 1 PMJacoby BrissettQB0.57 INT projected · 33.9 att
ARI @ NYGSun 1 PM38%3
WSH vs INDSun 9 AMMarcus MariotaQB0.56 INT projected · 31.3 att
WSH vs INDSun 9 AM37%
BAL vs TENSun 1 PMLamar JacksonQB0.54 INT projected · 27.8 att
BAL vs TENSun 1 PM37%
CLE vs PITThu 8 PMDeshaun WatsonQB0.53 INT projected · 26.5 att
CLE vs PITThu 8 PM36%1
HOU vs DALSun 1 PMC.J. StroudQB0.48 INT projected · 35.1 att
HOU vs DALSun 1 PM33%We haven't graded this board against a walk-forward run yet, so read it as a projection, not as an edge. What we have measured is the market: across 1,563 posted 0.5 lines from 2023 to 2025, betting every over blind returned −6.3% and every under −2.3%, both at the best price of five books. Both sides lose to the hold — this is a tight market. It's also why the number above is a chance and not an average: a quarterback averages 0.67 picks a game but throws one in only about 48% of starts, so an average read against a 0.5 line is an over on nearly every passer in the league.
How often our number landed on the right side of the line a book actually posted. Every quoted line counts, not just the big disagreements — and a push settles as neither. There are no units here: two seasons of walk-forward say these lines are efficient, so we grade accuracy and don't claim an edge we can't show. Green means it beat what picking a side with no model at all would have scored.
Every number here comes from the same drive-level simulation as the matchups board, so a player's line and his team's projected points are the same game. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
