Genoa vs Lazio
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Genoa0
Lazio1Full timeOlimpicoBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Sunday, August 30, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 1–0
Proj1.5–0.8
LazioHOME✓51%1.5proj-105fair+148mktModel lean+11.0%Draw29%—proj+247fair+208mkt-3.7%
GenoaAWAY20%0.8proj+403fair+270mkt-7.2%O2.5 41% · mkt 37% ✓BTTS 45% · mkt 46% ✓
CBSSN · Paramount+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
Serie A tablePlayer props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Matteo Cancellieri1+ Goals18%25%+360✗ 0Valentín Castellanos1+ Goals17%––DNPBoulaye Dia1+ Goals16%26%+290✗ 0Gustav Isaksen1+ Goals13%24%+380✗ 0Mattia Zaccagni1+ Goals13%23%+400✗ 0Shots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Valentín Castellanos1+ Shots85%––DNPMatteo Cancellieri1+ Shots85%94%-1500✓ 1Boulaye Dia1+ Shots84%91%-1000✗ 0Mattia Zaccagni1+ Shots83%88%-750✓ 3Vitinha1+ Shots80%––✓ 1Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Matteo Cancellieri1+ Shots on Target52%66%-195✗ 0Valentín Castellanos1+ Shots on Target50%––DNPBoulaye Dia1+ Shots on Target48%65%-185✗ 0Vitinha1+ Shots on Target43%––✗ 0Mattia Zaccagni1+ Shots on Target43%60%-150✗ 0Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Boulaye DiaO0.519%13%+700✗ 0Danilo CataldiO0.512%––DNPToma BasicO0.512%––DNP
Aarón MartínO0.510%21%+380DNPValentín CastellanosO0.510%––DNPScore or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Boulaye Dia32%––✗ 0Valentín Castellanos25%––DNPMatteo Cancellieri24%––✗ 0Danilo Cataldi21%––DNPToma Basic21%––DNP
Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 3 meetingsLazio lead 3-06–0 on goals