Serie A Match Board — Sunday, August 30, 2026
Every Serie A match on Sunday, August 30, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.
Season · all graded matches
ML5-3+0.1u
Over 2.56-2+1.8u
BTTS7-1+4.7u
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 7 of 8 matches.
Sunday, August 30
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
12:30 PM ET
Proj1.2–0.9
NAPNapoliHOME42%1.2proj+138fair+158mkt+3.3%DRWDraw32%—proj+210fair+235mkt+2.4%
COMOComoAWAY26%0.9proj+288fair+219mkt-5.6%O2.5 35% · mkt 41%BTTS 42%
Paramount+
2:45 PM ET
Proj1.1–1.6
CAGCagliariHOME26%1.1proj+292fair—mkt—DRWDraw28%—proj+262fair—mkt—
INTInternazionaleAWAY47%1.6proj+114fair—mkt—O2.5 50%BTTS 54%
Paramount+
2:45 PM ET
Proj1.5–0.8
LAZLazioHOME51%1.5proj-104fair+106mkt+2.4%DRWDraw29%—proj+245fair+243mkt-0.2%
GENGenoaAWAY20%0.8proj+401fair+349mkt-2.3%O2.5 40% · mkt 41%BTTS 45%
Paramount+
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).