Venezia vs AC Milan
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Venezia0
Milan2Full timeSan SiroBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Friday, August 28, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 2–0
Proj1.9–0.8
AC MilanHOME✓63%1.9proj-170fair-179mkt-1.2%Draw24%—proj+325fair+374mkt+2.4%
VeneziaAWAY13%0.8proj+643fair+571mkt-1.5%O2.5 50% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 46% · mkt 52% ✓
Paramount+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
Serie A tablePlayer props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Rafael Leão1+ Goals37%46%+130DNP
Adrien Rabiot1+ Goals34%––✗ 0Christian Pulisic1+ Goals33%43%+135DNPAlexis Saelemaekers1+ Goals29%24%+340✗ 0Santiago Gimenez1+ Goals22%42%+140DNP
Shots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Rafael Leão1+ Shots95%––DNP
Alexis Saelemaekers1+ Shots94%90%-900✗ 0Santiago Gimenez1+ Shots90%99%-10000DNP
Youssouf Fofana1+ Shots85%––DNP
Tijjani Reijnders1+ Shots85%––DNP
Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Rafael Leão1+ Shots on Target71%––DNP
Alexis Saelemaekers1+ Shots on Target61%57%-130✗ 0Santiago Gimenez1+ Shots on Target56%86%-600DNP
Adrien Rabiot1+ Shots on Target51%––✗ 0Christian Pulisic1+ Shots on Target50%83%-500DNPAssists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Adrien RabiotO0.531%––✗ 0Alexis SaelemaekersO0.520%33%+200✓ 1Rafael LeãoO0.520%––DNP
Christian PulisicO0.517%29%+250DNPChristopher NkunkuO0.516%––DNP
Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Adrien Rabiot54%––✗ 0Rafael Leão50%––DNP
Christian Pulisic44%––DNPAlexis Saelemaekers44%––✓ 1Santiago Gimenez32%––DNP
Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 2 meetingsAC Milan lead 2-04–0 on goals