Serie A Match Board — Friday, August 28, 2026

Every Serie A match on Friday, August 28, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML5-3+0.1u

Over 2.56-2+1.8u

BTTS7-1+4.7u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 7 of 8 matches.

Friday, August 28

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.9–0.8

MILAC MilanHOME63%1.9proj-173fair-226mkt-6.0%

DRWDraw23%—proj+327fair+411mkt+3.8%

VENVeneziaAWAY13%0.8proj+652fair+787mkt+2.0%

O2.5 50% · mkt 51%BTTS 46%

Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).