Fiorentina vs AS Roma
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Fiorentina0
AS Roma4Full timeOlimpicoBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Monday, August 24, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 4–0
Proj1.5–1.0
AS RomaHOME✓46%1.5proj+116fair-122mkt-8.6%Draw29%—proj+245fair+288mkt+3.2%
FiorentinaAWAY25%1.0proj+304fair+426mktModel lean+5.7%O2.5 44% · mkt 48% ✗BTTS 50% · mkt 49% ✓
Paramount+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
Serie A tableAway
Home
Player props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Moise Kean1+ Goals23%28%+320✗ 0Albert Gudmundsson1+ Goals21%22%+400DNPEldor Shomurodov1+ Goals19%––DNPRolando Mandragora1+ Goals17%17%+600✗ 0Matìas Soulè1+ Goals17%31%+270✗ 0Shots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Moise Kean1+ Shots95%97%-3000✓ 2Eldor Shomurodov1+ Shots87%––DNPAlbert Gudmundsson1+ Shots85%88%-700DNPMatìas Soulè1+ Shots82%99%-7000✓ 2Paulo Dybala1+ Shots82%99%-7000✓ 4Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Moise Kean1+ Shots on Target61%71%-250✓ 2Albert Gudmundsson1+ Shots on Target52%55%-120DNPEldor Shomurodov1+ Shots on Target51%––DNPPaulo Dybala1+ Shots on Target47%71%-250✓ 1Matìas Soulè1+ Shots on Target44%66%-190✓ 1Assists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Matìas SoulèO0.514%29%+250✗ 0Eldor ShomurodovO0.512%––DNPNicolò FagioliO0.512%13%+650✗ 0Paulo DybalaO0.59%34%+190✓ 3Moise KeanO0.59%9%+1000✗ 0Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Moise Kean30%––✗ 0Eldor Shomurodov29%––DNPAlbert Gudmundsson28%––DNPMatìas Soulè28%––✗ 0Rolando Mandragora24%––✗ 0Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 3 meetingsAS Roma lead 3-07–1 on goals