Serie A Match Board — Monday, August 24, 2026
Every Serie A match on Monday, August 24, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.
Monday, August 24, 2026 · how the model graded
ML1-1−0.3u
Over 2.51-1−0.4u
BTTS2-0+2.0u
Season · all graded matchesFull ledger →
ML18-10+6.1u
Over 2.516-12+1.0u
BTTS18-10+7.5u
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 25 of 28 matches.
Monday, August 24
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
BolognaHOME✗39%1.2proj+159fair+142mkt-2.7%Draw31%—proj+219fair+226mkt+0.6%
LazioAWAY30%1.0proj+233fair+258mkt+2.1%O2.5 39% · mkt 42% ✓BTTS 47% · mkt 51% ✓
Paramount+
AS RomaHOME✓46%1.5proj+116fair-122mkt-8.6%Draw29%—proj+245fair+288mkt+3.2%
FiorentinaAWAY25%1.0proj+304fair+426mktModel lean+5.7%O2.5 44% · mkt 48% ✗BTTS 50% · mkt 49% ✓
Paramount+
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).