Bologna vs Atalanta
The box score, both lineups on the pitch, and how the model saw it.
Bologna0
Atalanta1Full timeNew Balance ArenaBox score
FinalWhat the model says
Monday, August 31, 2026MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 1–0
Proj1.2–1.1
AtalantaHOME✓39%1.2proj+157fair-102mkt-11.6%Draw31%—proj+224fair+278mktModel lean+4.4%
BolognaAWAY30%1.1proj+230fair+332mktModel lean+7.1%O2.5 41% · mkt 51% ✓BTTS 48% · mkt 55% ✓
Paramount+
Probabilities and goal numbers are the model's, frozen at kickoff. The stats above come from the live feed and update while the match runs.
Going in
Serie A tablePlayer props
Top 5 per marketAnytime Scorer
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Mateo Retegui1+ Goals28%––DNPGianluca Scamacca1+ Goals23%37%+170✗ 0Charles De Ketelaere1+ Goals18%30%+240✗ 0Riccardo Orsolini1+ Goals18%25%+330✗ 0Tommaso Pobega1+ Goals13%13%+750✗ 0Shots
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Mateo Retegui1+ Shots91%––DNPGianluca Scamacca1+ Shots90%99%-7000✓ 1Charles De Ketelaere1+ Shots89%93%-1250✗ 0Riccardo Orsolini1+ Shots85%95%-2000✗ 0Jens Odgaard1+ Shots80%90%-900✓ 2Shots on Target
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Mateo Retegui1+ Shots on Target55%––DNPCharles De Ketelaere1+ Shots on Target54%64%-180✗ 0Gianluca Scamacca1+ Shots on Target54%79%-370✓ 1Riccardo Orsolini1+ Shots on Target49%65%-185✗ 0Jon Rowe1+ Shots on Target45%––DNPAssists
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Mateo ReteguiO0.515%––DNPCharles De KetelaereO0.512%18%+450✗ 0Nicolò CambiaghiO0.510%15%+550✗ 0Raoul BellanovaO0.59%22%+350✗ 0Dan NdoyeO0.59%––DNP
Score or Assist
Full board →PlayerOursMktPrice
Mateo Retegui39%––DNPGianluca Scamacca29%––✗ 0Charles De Ketelaere28%––✗ 0Riccardo Orsolini25%––✗ 0Tommaso Pobega20%––✗ 0Our number against the book's, per player. US books quote these over-only and don't de-vig, so the market column runs a little hot and the gap between the two reads conservative. A dash means no book hung that line. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
Head to head
Last 2 meetingsAtalanta lead 2-03–0 on goals